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Shared robo cars will destroy car industry as we know it

Discussion in 'Cars and Transportation' started by voyager, May 18, 2015.

  1. voyager

    voyager Member

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  2. Fanatic

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    Even if we could do by only this amount of cars ppl will own their own.
     
  3. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    I did not see a timeline associated with the prediction that car ownership will go down by almost 100%. By 2050? Maybe, but I doubt it. A lot of sweeping, dramatic predictions have been made regarding the future that haven't come to fruition.

    Will autonomous driving fleets impact the automotive industry as we know it? Certainly. But will it result in a catastrophic implosion of the industry overnight? Doubtful. I could see urban-dwellers and some early-adopters giving up their personal vehicles for a fully autonomous rideshare service, but many owners, assuming they have the financial means, will continue to own a private car, even if it is also self-driving. I don't know if I'm ready to give up my private vehicle.
     
  4. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting speculation. Some of what the writer predicts may well come to pass, but it likely will not happen nearly as rapidly as he predicts, and I think the percentage of people who will continue to own their own cars will be much higher than he forecasts.
     
  5. davewill

    davewill Member

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    It seems to me that it will depend on the limitations of the public autonomous fleet. If it will come in less than 10 minutes, can take me anywhere (and I mean everywhere not almost everywhere), or if I can override and drive it myself in the few cases that it can't autonomously drive somewhere, and the cost is reasonable, then it could happen really quickly. Cars are a HUGE expense and being able to eliminate that expense will be very attractive to lots of people.
     
  6. RichardL

    RichardL Member

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    The availability of taxis or Uber has some effect on who owns a car - but it hardly seems to be destroying the ownership of private vehicles. The only difference with autonomous cars would seem to be cost?
     
  7. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Also he seems to forget that the population of the world will plateau at 9 billion and that several billion people in Africa, Asia, South America who today could never afford a car will become affluent too.
     
  8. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    The prediction is somewhat in line with Tony Seba: A drastically reduced number of automated shared cars will do the same amount of transportation as today's individually owned cars that are parked >95% of the time. Cities will do away with parking lots, highways will allow only autonomously driving vehicles.

    See his keynote at Alt Cars Expo, 2014.
     
  9. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    <irony>Yes, people are perfectly sensible when it comes to car ownership. Just look at how many people are already ditching individual car ownership in order to instead have a membership in a car pool sharing service.

    Also, the P85 0-60 isn't quick enough so a lot of people upgraded to P85D</irony>
     
  10. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    @Johan...see elsewhere on this forum about pickup truck ownership for example of rationality. </sarcasm> :smile:
     
  11. voyager

    voyager Member

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    #11 voyager, May 19, 2015
    Last edited: May 19, 2015
    One only needs to glance at Tesla's to realize that they are all about owning them. I mean, the attention to detail, the road presence, etc. Nothing utilitarian, like the Google robo-car. Elon Musk better bases Tesla's business model on something more than ownership.

    Top-back-view_V2-482x309.jpg
     
  12. voyager

    voyager Member

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    Its been an education which subject belongs where. It shouldn't be posted here. Can one of the moderators move this thread to the Cars & Transportation section?
     
  13. voyager

    voyager Member

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    #13 voyager, Aug 25, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2015
    Perhaps even more intriguing... Private vs public transport. The first is completely dominated by the car industry. The second is 'ruled' by transportation companies and government agencies. Will Google and TNCs like Uber bridge the gap between what has always been regarded as two separate 'worlds'?

    crowdfunding%2Bdiagram.jpg
     
  14. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    A shared car is just like a rental car. You never know what you get, how it's been maintained (This is life or death in rural Northern Canada in the winter), whether it's filthy. (I've had many rental cars where the steering wheel stuck to my hands.) They could replace taxis and buses--especially around here where it takes over 80 minutes to go ten miles by bus.
     
  15. SR22pilot

    SR22pilot Member

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    Individually owned cars will eventually disappear. Autonomous autos enable vastly superior traffic flow. Initially there will be just a few autonomous cars. Then there will be autonomous only lanes. At that point people in cities will find the financials strongly in favor of cars as a service with rentals for the longer excursions. Then, that need will go away and cars as a service will slowly expand into the suburbs and then all over. Add in the increased reliability of electrics and you begin to talk a car market of around 10 million cars a year instead of 100. Already I find 18 year old less into cars than when I was 18. Yeah, they still love them but it seems more muted.
     
  16. voyager

    voyager Member

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    Nice overview of the types of sharing:

    carsharing_models_andrew_fair_0.png
     
  17. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    #17 Johann Koeber, Oct 11, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2015
    No way car ownership will go away in my lifetime.

    I'm keeping my Teslas.

    In the long term - less sure.
    In the long term we will all be dead.
     
  18. voyager

    voyager Member

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    Then we'll all be sharing some place quiet ;-)
     
  19. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Shared robo cars would cost me a fortune in coats left in them. It will be like always driving a rental car (yuck).
     

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