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SHORT-LIVED THREAD: Your best SP Guess After TSLA's "Big Week"

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I hereby claim the title of most accurate crystal ball. I'll console myself with a Model X order later this month.

The organizers of this humble contest approve of your "consolation prize" for yourself for winning.

It is interesting that TMC did spectacularly, astonishingly well at predicting 3Q deliveries (A+++), much better than the market/analysts at predicting the results of the 3Q ER (A) and spectacularly poorly at predicting the SP (solid F).

I think there is a lesson in there somewhere about how difficult it is to predict how markets behave in the short term, or something along those lines.
 
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So the average guess of $226.70 was 21% higher than the actual price of $187.42.

Pretty hard to believe that Tesla executed pretty well on all of these events - particularly the Q3 ER - and yet here we are. This is a good reminder just how unpredictable the market can be, especially in the short term. Especially something to remember if one is considering options.
 
I think we neglected the political climate. we likely can thank the FBI for at least some of it.

With the S&P 500 down 8 days in a row and volatility increasing Comey & Company were definitely part of the problem. But given the lack of SP response to a very strong ER and other factors, I tend to agree with @dandurston:

Pretty hard to believe that Tesla executed pretty well on all of these events - particularly the Q3 ER - and yet here we are. This is a good reminder just how unpredictable the market can be, especially in the short term. Especially something to remember if one is considering options.
 
I still believe in my prediction: "$190. Investors see nothing to ignite stock until the summer - and summer is high risk, and investors hate risk.".

"Summer" means Model 3. Future earnings are all about that. It doesn't matter what Tesla earns this Q or next - what matters is if, when, & and how big are earnings post-Model 3. Many investors will stop at "if" and decide to wait out the risk on the sidelines. Others will get to "when" and there things get interesting for the timing of TSLA to go up during 2017.

I hope Model 3 shipments do start in 2H17. We'll be past "if" and "when"; we reach "how big" and that's when TSLA fun starts. :)

Right now "if" and "when" (regarding Model 3) are the questions keeping TSLA down.

Solarcity & Tesla Energy are under-the-radar side shows that'll offer upside surprise to the 2018 "how big can Tesla be?" question.

Personally I'm confident that TSLA investors will be very happy soon after the Model 3 production ramp.
 
I still believe in my prediction: "$190. Investors see nothing to ignite stock until the summer - and summer is high risk, and investors hate risk.".

"Summer" means Model 3. Future earnings are all about that. It doesn't matter what Tesla earns this Q or next - what matters is if, when, & and how big are earnings post-Model 3. Many investors will stop at "if" and decide to wait out the risk on the sidelines. Others will get to "when" and there things get interesting for the timing of TSLA to go up during 2017.

I hope Model 3 shipments do start in 2H17. We'll be past "if" and "when"; we reach "how big" and that's when TSLA fun starts. :)

Right now "if" and "when" (regarding Model 3) are the questions keeping TSLA down.

Solarcity & Tesla Energy are under-the-radar side shows that'll offer upside surprise to the 2018 "how big can Tesla be?" question.

Personally I'm confident that TSLA investors will be very happy soon after the Model 3 production ramp.

I agree that the most likely scenario until Model 3 launches and is shown to be profitable is for Tesla SP to remain range bound (although hopefully not limited to 190!)

I do think there are possibilities for a breakout earlier than that if TE surprises or if a steady stream of positive ERs wears down shorts and leads to analyst upgrades. But i agree that most likely we won't see a breakout until we see a successful Model 3 ramp. Then, as you say, the fun begins. ;)