Short-term car options

[scubastevo80]

My wife and I have one car since the beginning of the pandemic, a Model 3. I've been able to work from home until now, but will likely have to go back to the office here and there starting in June. I haven't bought a Y yet because we're waiting on both the federal tax credit guidance under the Biden infrastructure plan as well the potential NJ state incentive, and if that will come back this year. Since we've yet to receive clarity, I'm struggling on how long I can hold out for without another car. My only other option that I can think of is buy a junker for a few months.

Is anyone in a similar situation and are there any creative solutions one can think of? I checked rental car companies and Turo, and the cheapest options are north of $800/mo, so that's not really ideal.

 

[gpdriver17]

Maybe take over a lease from swapalease that has 6 or less months remaining? Or just find a lease that's a good deal and have someone else take over when you're done.

 

[sroy]

There are plenty of other threads about the state incentive. The short version is I believe it will still be 5K and will apply July 1st. I placed my order mid April hoping/believing delivery can happen July 1st to get the rebate. I budgeted without.

I estimate not having that car to cost me about 800$/mo so it doesn't make financial sense to me to spend to wait for feredal incentives (moving away from ICE car that needs new tires among other things).

 

[sroy]

Also price will go up (the M3 LR AWD went up 1K since Dec 15th and will likely go up again until then). If the LR AWD is, say, 3K more in Sept, waiting is not worth it at all IMO.

 

[haroldo]

I placed my order mid April hoping/believing delivery can happen July 1st to get the rebate.

According to Home | Charge Up New Jersey (the people administering the program), confirmed by two emails and a phone call, the date you placed the order MUST be after the effective date (presumably July 1). So if you ordered already and take delivery after the date, you will not qualify.

And, yes, with the chip shortages, and everyone returning to work, expect pricing to go up (already three times in 2021), potentially eating up some/all of the incentives.

 

[sroy]

According to Home | Charge Up New Jersey (the people administering the program), confirmed by two emails and a phone call, the date you placed the order MUST be after the effective date (presumably July 1). So if you ordered already and take delivery after the date, you will not qualify.

And, yes, with the chip shortages, and everyone returning to work, expect pricing to go up (already three times in 2021), potentially eating up some/all of the incentives.

Still strongly confident it's workable. Worst case cancel and reorder (with the price increase though).

I mean back the OP's question: if you do need to get a car shortly (say in less than 4-8 weeks-ish) it's probably same cost/cheaper to skip the incentives. For about the same price, it's less of a hassle not to mess around with an intermediate ride.

 

[haroldo]

Worst case cancel and reorder (with the price increase though).

I'm doing that (ordered April 22).
I have the email address and phone number of of a sales rep that thinks she can handle the swap.
I will call and try to cancel / rebill simultaneously,
If not, I get to wait another 7-9 weeks and deal with the future price. Then again, if NJ offers a lower rebate amount (currently, they're the most generous state in the nation), and there are enough price hikes, it might make sense to keep my first order.

 

[sroy]

I'm doing that (ordered April 22).
I have the email address and phone number of of a sales rep that thinks she can handle the swap.
I will call and try to cancel / rebill simultaneously,
If not, I get to wait another 7-9 weeks and deal with the future price. Then again, if NJ offers a lower rebate amount (currently, they're the most generous state in the nation), and there are enough price hikes, it might make sense to keep my first order.

Same reasoning. Based on what people report on their delivery dates, I am hopeful Tesla can navigate NJ's deliveries to get the rebate in for Q2 orders. I know they did it in other states/countries. And my forecast dates have not changed much if at all since I placed my order.

 

[haroldo]

I am hopeful Tesla can navigate NJ's deliveries to get the rebate in for Q2 orders. I know they did it in other states/countries

Wouldn't be surprised if they jacked up prices between now and the end of June.
Not sure about the other states' calendars (with respect to rebates, or other incentives) but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize a lot of folk are holding off buying until that date. It's easy money for them.

 

[sroy]

I mean I think it would make sense regardless of incentives based on demand alone. Also, chip shortage.

 

[scubastevo80]

Still strongly confident it's workable. Worst case cancel and reorder (with the price increase though).

I mean back the OP's question: if you do need to get a car shortly (say in less than 4-8 weeks-ish) it's probably same cost/cheaper to skip the incentives. For about the same price, it's less of a hassle not to mess around with an intermediate ride.

The incentives could range between $7-12k between federal and state, so unless folks don't care about money anymore, I guess times have changed. Even if Tesla raises prices ($3k or whatever), it's still a huge net savings.

I'll look into the lease trade, that is certainly a good idea.

 

[sroy]

If you can't get any of those incentives before, say, jan 2022 or later, considering Tesla price increase and gaz prices skyrocketing post covid, not sure the wait is worth the difference left.

 

[scubastevo80]

If you can't get any of those incentives before, say, jan 2022 or later, considering Tesla price increase and gaz prices skyrocketing post covid, not sure the wait is worth the difference left.

Perhaps, but I'd like to get clarity on what the potential incentives are instead of just jumping in. If the incentives aren't until next year, we'll then have to consider skipping the Y and going right to a CT.

 

[sroy]

Fair enough. I mean relative to the incentives coming, I feel the only case where it makes sense to wait and see is if you are replacing an ICE vehicle with an EV and said ICE vehicle is in very good working order. If you need to change soonish (my case) or you are missing a vehicle, or replacing EV with new EV, I feel waiting has diminishing returns.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

The incentives are for Elon, not you. He just adjusts the price accordingly and (hopefully) uses the extra income to build more factories. The intent of the bill is to help automakers offer EVs that are a compelling alternative to old-fashioned cars and Teslas are already compelling so there's no point in passing the savings down to you.

I believe if you order a 3/Y soon you can get it at the end of September but you wait another month or two it will push you out to New Year's Eve. And the Cybertruck is still 2-3 years out if you order the Tri-motor today, with an extra year wait for each motor reduction.

 

[scubastevo80]

The incentives are for Elon, not you. He just adjusts the price accordingly and (hopefully) uses the extra income to build more factories. The intent of the bill is to help automakers offer EVs that are a compelling alternative to old-fashioned cars and Teslas are already compelling so there's no point in passing the savings down to you.

I believe if you order a 3/Y soon you can get it at the end of September but you wait another month or two it will push you out to New Year's Eve. And the Cybertruck is still 2-3 years out if you order the Tri-motor today, with an extra year wait for each motor reduction.

Sure, he could take the federal incentive and raise the price to zero out the tax credit, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take, especially given the additional state incentive. Yes - Teslas are compelling, but I'd rather wait on direction than buy a car today and have it potentially worth $10k less tomorrow based on jumping the gun.

I also don't know where you get September from - if I order a Y now, it will likely be ready by the end of June according to the website, assuming they don't move faster than expected. If, as you state, he adjusts the price accordingly, nothing will happen to demand and that time frame won't change.

 

[haroldo]

In nearly every situation where there is a subsidy, the market will adjust to reprice the "bonus". Just take a look at what happened to college tuitions when the government threw 'free money' around. Economics is the study of how people react to incentives...and you can't change the laws of economics by adjusting the price.
So, logic says that a rational, public company will look to the affordability of their product when it comes to pricing.

Sure, he could take the federal incentive and raise the price to zero out the tax credit,

I know this isn't a statistically valid sample, but if you look at this poll in another thread, fully one in three potential buyers admit that they'll wait to take advantage of a possible incentive program. Not only is there a possible Federal program, but states, like NJ, are about to open up the kitty and send out free money (well, it's not exactly free, your neighbor will be helping pay for your car)
Tesla's management aren't idiots, they know this.

If you knew that you were going to see a boost in demand as a result of a government subsidy, would you
(a) let all the benefit of the bonus accrue to the consumer
(b) adjust the prices to get your "fair share" (sorry) of the bonus?

Before you answer, colleges are far more altruistic than the greedy folk (/sarcasm) over at big bad Tesla, yet they jacked up prices to vacuum up all the free money that Washington threw around (creating a multi trillion dollar time bomb).

Now you can answer.

My money is on (b)...prices be going up!

 

[haroldo]

My money is on (b)...prices be going up!

I’ve been checking the price daily, since I am going to be playing the July 1 cancel reorder game

The price went up another $500 last night for the extended range car (i am not focusing on the other versions). I believe this is the 5th or 6th hike this year (dated article)

That’a the second $500 increase since my April 22 order. The tax cost of an aftermarket auto drive option (to keep it under $55,000 MSRP for the NJ Rebate) adds $500 net of cash back (since I can use credit card). Therefore, a potential $5000 EV rebate if/when NJ approves, is now only $3500.


Between the chip shortage, possible government stimulus for EV purchases, and strong demand for EV, as reported by all manufacturers, I predict a few more hikes by July

 

[haroldo]

The price went up another $500 last night...

For those wanting to track the timing of recent price changes, using information I picked up from Electrek.com, the chart below are the recent dates and prices for the Model 3 Extended Range. Please note Tesla doesn't apply the same price changes to all the cars in the model line, that is, the extended range price changes may not occur at the same time, nor in the same amount, as price changes in other configurations. I'm only interested in, and focusing on, the extended range battery.
As there are 55 days until the possible beginning of the July 1 NJ EV Rebate program, the price hike recent pattern ($500 every two weeks), implies that there could be possibly 3, maybe 4, more price hikes, or possibly another $1,500 to 2,000.

Date	Price	Change	Days between change
17-Feb-21	$ 46,990.00
11-Mar-21	$ 46,490.00	$ (500.00)	22
24-Mar-21	$ 46,990.00	$ 500.00	13
9-Apr-21	$ 47,490.00	$ 500.00	16
22-Apr-21	$ 47,990.00	$ 500.00	13
7-May-21	$ 48,490.00	$ 500.00	15

The incentives could range between $7-12k between federal and state, so unless folks don't care about money anymore,

Currently, there are no federal incentives. Not sure where you get the 7-12k figure, but according to this page, the best you can hope for is the resumption of NJ's, very generous, $5,000 rebate, but many states' incentives are lower, ~$2,000 in some states, but in many cases far less (for example, Illinois offers exemption from state emissions testing...that's it!)

 

[sroy]

Yeah I am now at the 3500 difference change which is about my monthly cost of not changing car if I delay for next quarter. One more price change and the prerebate cost is cheaper to me.