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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Feb 24, 2013.

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  1. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    When I was an economist at the Federal Reserve, people would ask "are interest rates going up or down?"

    The answer: "Yes."

    This thread is the place to discuss TSLA price movements and speculate as to their cause.
     
  2. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    I suspect that TSLA is not a "sexy" stock anymore given that the Model S is in full-blown production with few issues and profitability is just around the corner. It's funny how the market goes overboard about the 'potential' long before anything tangible happens - remember the surge to the high 30s for the first time some months ago when some Wunderlich chap simply noted that the factory's "coming along well"?! - and when something tangible does happen, folks flee for the exits.

    I suspect that a long stint in the 30-38 range is on the cards with the possibility of ticking down given any major recalls.
     
  3. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    Sure it is.
     
  4. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Not sure how many already believe profitability is around the corner. I think there still is a lot skepticism about that, including lack of knowledge or skepticism about the upcoming developments in cost-reduction and achievement of a good margin. Plus many are probably just looking at the quarterly numbers and writing off everything else as marketing.

    Also the development of demand in Europe hasn't shown itself yet. So it seems a lot can change towards the positive side within the next few months.
     
  5. Jeeps17

    Jeeps17 Cath Jockey in a P85

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    I am not sure why Elon felt he had to say (on the air) that Tesla lost "millions" in orders / valuation due to the NYT Brodergate.

    There are already comments about Tesla "whining", and this is just more ammo for the shorts...
     
  6. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    That's just part of talking about the issues with the NYT article, and giving a reason for why he didn't want to ignore the article, even if consequences might be negative. Just like in sports they call it "foul" if that's what it was.
     
  7. blakegallagher

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    I agree ... I have already read at least one article that doubted Tsla would be anywhere near positive q1 or any quarter thereafter .... I could be wrong but it is hard for me to see a scenario in which they post in the black for q1 and the stock is not rewarded ....
     
  8. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    man I know I'm long term but boy am I getting killed today.
     
  9. agelston

    agelston Member

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    It's going to get killed over the next 3 months. Sorry. No institutional buyers stepped up post earnings, shorts covered enough pre earnings to gather some firepower.

    The cost to borrow tesla shares dropped from 25% to 5% at my broker post earnings. No reason why.

    Nasty few months, pre earnings runup, then it's all on Musk. Who likely will deliver in Q1.

    Gather some dry powder
     
  10. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Me too. Market is down some but TSLA getting hit hard. A and e market will likely correct down much more in days to come I'm hinting with sequester and general pull back from highs. Tat could do some real damage to TSLA in next days/weeks
     
  11. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    This report Tesla’s Musk Predicts 25% Model S Output Gain: Video - Bloomberg

    states that Tesla is expecting to ramp up production by 25% in the middle of the year. (Which would be 500/week). I believe this wasn't said yet in the Q4 report or conference call.

    This corrects the potential false impression that because of the article, Tesla would expect sales to go down, when in fact they expect sales to go up (overall) during the year.
     
  12. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Yea, not fun to watch. TSLA is nearly has lost about 15% of it's value in a week. It never made any sense to me that it dropped at all.

    Tesla is expecting to be profitable very shortly and earlier than expected, which if you were long that's the bright spot you're looking for. If you're a pessimist and think they're dying, there's practically no price at which it isn't overvalued. I simply can't fathom why the 4th quarter report would lead anyone to think more negatively about Tesla's future than before the earnings call.

    I'm curious if the shorts are going to increase or decrease. Market volume has been much, much higher since the earnings call.
     
  13. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    Wondering if I should exit and get in later. These pull-backs are so crazy.
     
  14. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    FWIW, I sold half my long position late last week; the price hasn't gotten low enough to trigger even the top of my buy-back ladder.
     
  15. rolosrevenge

    rolosrevenge Dr. EVS

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    Right behind you...
    I had done the same thing when it first hit $38 but got too antsy and bought back at $37.50. Oh well.
     
  16. nygiants242

    nygiants242 Member

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    Is this because of the Edmunds review/tweet about their screen going dark? Not sure if I can stomach this stock. People underrate the upside, yet any potential negative news (recall, defect, etc.) could send this thing down big time. I am in pretty deep, so I guess I just need to wait it out.
     
  17. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I doubt this has anything to do with any specific Tesla news. TSLA has exactly tracked the market today, just with a high Beta.
     
  18. agelston

    agelston Member

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    There is always another chance to buy with no news gaps.

    I'd say 33 before 38 based on the chart
     
  19. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    Yep. I'm hoping for/expecting $33. I have a lot of buying to do to get back the shares I sold ahead of the quarter. I don't think we'll see it much lower than that though. At least, based on the information I have today.
     
  20. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    Because he's outspoken, that is his nature. You take the good with the bad, though, I don't consider him being 'vocal' a bad thing. If he says nothing then we have the crowd that says, 'Why doesn't he stand up and defend his company?'. If he says something then we have the crowd that says, 'You shouldn't take on the NYT or Why is he whining?' One thing is for sure, you'll never please everyone, so you might as well start by pleasing yourself by being yourself. I applaud his fearlessness in everything he does, no matter whose feathers get ruffled. And I like the forthrightness and honesty because that means I know which side of the fence he's standing on, whether I agree or not.
     
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