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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Robert.Boston

Model S VIN P01536
Oct 7, 2011
7,844
42
Portland, Maine, USA
When I was an economist at the Federal Reserve, people would ask "are interest rates going up or down?"

The answer: "Yes."

This thread is the place to discuss TSLA price movements and speculate as to their cause.
 

gg_got_a_tesla

Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Jan 29, 2010
6,534
788
Redwood Shores, CA
I suspect that TSLA is not a "sexy" stock anymore given that the Model S is in full-blown production with few issues and profitability is just around the corner. It's funny how the market goes overboard about the 'potential' long before anything tangible happens - remember the surge to the high 30s for the first time some months ago when some Wunderlich chap simply noted that the factory's "coming along well"?! - and when something tangible does happen, folks flee for the exits.

I suspect that a long stint in the 30-38 range is on the cards with the possibility of ticking down given any major recalls.
 

Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
5,489
1,810
San Francisco, CA
Not sure how many already believe profitability is around the corner. I think there still is a lot skepticism about that, including lack of knowledge or skepticism about the upcoming developments in cost-reduction and achievement of a good margin. Plus many are probably just looking at the quarterly numbers and writing off everything else as marketing.

Also the development of demand in Europe hasn't shown itself yet. So it seems a lot can change towards the positive side within the next few months.
 

Jeeps17

Cath Jockey in a P85
Mar 17, 2012
1,016
395
Montreal, Canada
I am not sure why Elon felt he had to say (on the air) that Tesla lost "millions" in orders / valuation due to the NYT Brodergate.

There are already comments about Tesla "whining", and this is just more ammo for the shorts...
 

Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
5,489
1,810
San Francisco, CA
I am not sure why Elon felt he had to say (on the air) that Tesla lost "millions" in orders / valuation due to the NYT Brodergate.

There are already comments about Tesla "whining", and this is just more ammo for the shorts...

That's just part of talking about the issues with the NYT article, and giving a reason for why he didn't want to ignore the article, even if consequences might be negative. Just like in sports they call it "foul" if that's what it was.
 
Jul 21, 2012
931
1
South Texas
Not sure how many already believe profitability is around the corner. I think there still is a lot skepticism about that, including lack of knowledge or skepticism about the upcoming developments in cost-reduction and achievement of a good margin. Plus many are probably just looking at the quarterly numbers and writing off everything else as marketing.

Also the development of demand in Europe hasn't shown itself yet. So it seems a lot can change towards the positive side within the next few months.

I agree ... I have already read at least one article that doubted Tsla would be anywhere near positive q1 or any quarter thereafter .... I could be wrong but it is hard for me to see a scenario in which they post in the black for q1 and the stock is not rewarded ....
 

agelston

Member
Nov 18, 2012
73
1
NYC
It's going to get killed over the next 3 months. Sorry. No institutional buyers stepped up post earnings, shorts covered enough pre earnings to gather some firepower.

The cost to borrow tesla shares dropped from 25% to 5% at my broker post earnings. No reason why.

Nasty few months, pre earnings runup, then it's all on Musk. Who likely will deliver in Q1.

Gather some dry powder
 

kenliles

Active Member
Jun 7, 2012
3,060
8,376
Me too. Market is down some but TSLA getting hit hard. A and e market will likely correct down much more in days to come I'm hinting with sequester and general pull back from highs. Tat could do some real damage to TSLA in next days/weeks
 

Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
5,489
1,810
San Francisco, CA
I am not sure why Elon felt he had to say (on the air) that Tesla lost "millions" in orders / valuation due to the NYT Brodergate.

There are already comments about Tesla "whining", and this is just more ammo for the shorts...

This report Tesla’s Musk Predicts 25% Model S Output Gain: Video - Bloomberg

states that Tesla is expecting to ramp up production by 25% in the middle of the year. (Which would be 500/week). I believe this wasn't said yet in the Q4 report or conference call.

This corrects the potential false impression that because of the article, Tesla would expect sales to go down, when in fact they expect sales to go up (overall) during the year.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
400
man I know I'm long term but boy am I getting killed today.
Yea, not fun to watch. TSLA is nearly has lost about 15% of it's value in a week. It never made any sense to me that it dropped at all.

Tesla is expecting to be profitable very shortly and earlier than expected, which if you were long that's the bright spot you're looking for. If you're a pessimist and think they're dying, there's practically no price at which it isn't overvalued. I simply can't fathom why the 4th quarter report would lead anyone to think more negatively about Tesla's future than before the earnings call.

I'm curious if the shorts are going to increase or decrease. Market volume has been much, much higher since the earnings call.
 

nygiants242

Member
Jul 26, 2012
92
34
Is this because of the Edmunds review/tweet about their screen going dark? Not sure if I can stomach this stock. People underrate the upside, yet any potential negative news (recall, defect, etc.) could send this thing down big time. I am in pretty deep, so I guess I just need to wait it out.
 

gregincal

Active Member
Oct 26, 2012
3,774
2,357
Santa Cruz, CA
Is this because of the Edmunds review/tweet about their screen going dark? Not sure if I can stomach this stock. People underrate the upside, yet any potential negative news (recall, defect, etc.) could send this thing down big time. I am in pretty deep, so I guess I just need to wait it out.

I doubt this has anything to do with any specific Tesla news. TSLA has exactly tracked the market today, just with a high Beta.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
105
Raleigh, NC
There is always another chance to buy with no news gaps.

I'd say 33 before 38 based on the chart

Yep. I'm hoping for/expecting $33. I have a lot of buying to do to get back the shares I sold ahead of the quarter. I don't think we'll see it much lower than that though. At least, based on the information I have today.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,551
65,310
Tesla friendly place
I am not sure why Elon felt he had to say (on the air) that Tesla lost "millions" in orders / valuation due to the NYT Brodergate.

There are already comments about Tesla "whining", and this is just more ammo for the shorts...

Because he's outspoken, that is his nature. You take the good with the bad, though, I don't consider him being 'vocal' a bad thing. If he says nothing then we have the crowd that says, 'Why doesn't he stand up and defend his company?'. If he says something then we have the crowd that says, 'You shouldn't take on the NYT or Why is he whining?' One thing is for sure, you'll never please everyone, so you might as well start by pleasing yourself by being yourself. I applaud his fearlessness in everything he does, no matter whose feathers get ruffled. And I like the forthrightness and honesty because that means I know which side of the fence he's standing on, whether I agree or not.
 
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