Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[DonPedro]

This would be balanced by the "end of european deliveries", especially if they switch back to delivering in the US in the same quarter. And then do the same thing next quarter.

I have a sense that they will have a steady flow of European production, rather than "go-stop-go". Or they might do as you say - forever making sure that at the end of each quarter there are no cars in transit to Europe. However, that sounds like going through a lot of trouble and logistical headaches just to dress the Q3'13 quarterly earnings.

 

[Robert.Boston]

This would be balanced by the "end of european deliveries", especially if they switch back to delivering in the US in the same quarter. And then do the same thing next quarter.

I don't think so, @Norbert. Once the "tap" starts flowing in the EU, it should be continuous. Unlike the tail of EU Roadster sales, there shouldn't be a tail of of Model S deliveries (and, if there is, it's a bad thing). Tesla has to carry the inventory cost of its weekly shipments of EU-bound vehicles * weeks of transit time, as @DonPedro computed. Presumably the EU price includes the margin to cover the incremental inventory cost, but there will be an upfront bump.

 

[DonPedro]

Any news today to explain the exuberant opening?

 

[Beckler]

Kinda wish I'd waited another 2 days to take some profit. Just saw 46.10 spike. :frown:

 

[Johan]

2 days to april 18th options expiration...

 

[aznt1217]

2 days to april 18th options expiration...

April 19th.

 

[Citizen-T]

I heard that Morgan Stanley upped their production estimates for the year.

 

[aznt1217]

I heard that Morgan Stanley upped their production estimates for the year.

Hmmm to lock some profits or not...

 

[Johan]

April 19th.

Yes sorry. Someone sold lots of puts and is now support buying to up price and make them expire worthless?

 

[K Hall]

Took profits this morning. That should guarantee that the stock will continue to run up.

 

[Norbert]

I don't think so, @Norbert. Once the "tap" starts flowing in the EU, it should be continuous. Unlike the tail of EU Roadster sales, there shouldn't be a tail of of Model S deliveries (and, if there is, it's a bad thing). Tesla has to carry the inventory cost of its weekly shipments of EU-bound vehicles * weeks of transit time, as @DonPedro computed. Presumably the EU price includes the margin to cover the incremental inventory cost, but there will be an upfront bump.

It was half a joke. I say "half" because they could produce european versions (slightly different, i think) in batches. Elon seemed to imply (my interpretation) that when they start producing for Europe, they'll do so full force. Not really sure though. In any case, if it would be a problem for them to have inventory in transit, at certain times, that's what they could do.

 

[Citizen-T]

Bought calls last week for $1.85 sold half this week for $5.30.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I heard that Morgan Stanley upped their production estimates for the year.

Yeah, from 16k to 18k, not that big of a deal. Still under Tesla's guidance of 20k.

Some interesting other bits of info in the research note, I posted a quote on the Reservation Model thread here.

 

[Norbert]

Some interesting other bits of info in the research note, I posted a quote on the Reservation Model thread here.

They keep the $47 price target? We've been within 88 cents of that today. When was the $47 price target given? Maybe it has been set some time ago, and they don't want to set the next one until after the conference call.

 

[Citizen-T]

They keep the $47 price target? We've been within 88 cents of that today. When was the $47 price target given? Maybe it has been set some time ago, and they don't want to set the next one until after the conference call.

I think you are right. They seem skeptical about the reservation backlog. Probably waiting to get some answers on that to fill in the rest of their model's parameters.

 

[Teslawisher]

Possible anticipation for Elon's next address? Do we know when that plans to be?

 

[joefee]

Possible anticipation for Elon's next address? Do we know when that plans to be?

Could be today….

 

[mitch672]

I sold my long position at 46.00 today, I'll get back in with some leap calls eventually...
Hard to resist a %60 gain, it's come and gone multiple times. Not.this.time.

 

[Johan]

Bought calls last week for $1.85 sold half this week for $5.30.

I sold my long position at 46.00 today, I'll get back in with some leap calls eventually...
Hard to resist a %60 gain, it's come and gone multiple times. Not.this.time.

Congrats on great trades and taking profit! Gains on paper is next to nothing, money in the hand is the goal.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Congrats on great trades and taking profit! Gains on paper is next to nothing, money in the hand is the goal.

+1