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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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They've been. BMW bought a Model S and have been trying to reverse engineer. Doing what the Germans do best. Take something apart and try to make it better (but this time I think it's different)...
I had posted previously about BMW with their signature model s checking out the charging in delaware

has anyone else noted intense short attacks at the open usually preceded by large pre market spikes up on no news. Wonder why? Are they entising people to sell or is it a signal?
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
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They've been. BMW bought a Model S and have been trying to reverse engineer. Doing what the Germans do best. Take something apart and try to make it better (but this time I think it's different)...
I think Elon would be thrilled. Basically these guys are working on V1 while Tesla is on V3 with the Gen3 car. Now, BMW and others will have a jump since they're not starting from scratch, so call it V1.5. I think the first true production competition (not concepts, not "compliance" cars) won't come until after Gen3 is out for a year or two. Tesla will hopefully have cemented itself as a profitable and viable long term competitor at that point, which is a big deal because folks need to see it as a dominant player with staying power. By the time there's real competition, Tesla wants the concern about long term viability to be non-factor.
 
while not news here given Elon's talk this weekend, nice to see this short piece on Bloomberg where manufacturing VP Gilbert Passin clearly states the factory is up to 500 cars a week (20 seconds in). Some nice factory footage too.

Inside Tesla: A Massive Factory Pumping Out Model S: Video - Bloomberg

- - - Updated - - -



Interesting Palmer. Perhaps some Seeking Alpha article or something like that will try to use this as FUD, but I don't see it affecting the stock. Voelker raises a fair question (if rules are changed and battery swap doesn't increase ZEV revenue will Tesla drop it), but unlike him, my gut is no, they won't drop it. I also disagree with Voelker's interpretation of the Tesla spokesperson's comments as "avoiding an answer"... I think stating "Tesla's battery swapping is to provide consumers with a choice." suggests Tesla's plan is not contingent on the ZEV rules rewarding a battery swap network.

Those are both great links. You can see in every shot of the Bloomberg video that the Tesla factory is HOPPING!!! (and this video wasn't put together by Tesla!) No-one can deny their products are popular.

The greencarreports.com article though... a lot further off the mark. They are thinking only of the USA market. None of the other countries around the globe are hooking up Tesla with tax credits. Elon is a scientist... he understands that national boundaries don't mean much for carbon dioxide! They are making cars for the globe, and battery swapping is a viable alternative everywhere, not just in the USA. That the Model S was designed with battery swapping in mind did not cost them a lot to do, nor does it drive up the cost of the Model S; in fact, it is probably a savvy move that assists with servicing, and lengthening the life of the car. So - whether or not they build battery swapping stations is irrelevant... the car still has the feature and would have had it anyway.

Tesla will build battery swapping stations in places where they think there'll be enough takers to make building the station worthwhile. That's really all there is to it. No-one said they will grow to take a large fraction of owners' refueling habits. (I know I am preaching to the converted here)
 
I think there's no conspiracy or anything (on part of automakers to the financial wizards).

Elon would be extremely happy that Tesla is getting competitor attention. That was why the company was founded after all. He wants automaker's to start making EV's and thought everybody would have looked at EV's seriously without just doing the bare minimum (which is currently going on). Fortunately for us investors, competitors have been all talk with very little walk. Because competitors haven't started to seriously invest or make a paradigm shift, Elon said that Tesla has to scale up even more to make them take it as a serious threat.

It's simple business. Competition drives innovation. In most industries we usually don't have an issue with turning businesses upside down like Elon does. Unfortunately in the automotive space, there are a lot of competitors (with more cash) and high barriers to entry (legal + high capital investment required). I'm glad Elon realizes this and openly said it at TESLIVE. It's reassuring to me that he has both the scientist/academic/development and the business/execution side in him and for those who don't know Elon, public declarations like this will help.
 
Speaking of GM -- off topic, but if you've never listened to the This American Life program on the NUMMI plant in Fremont, the same plant which is now the Tesla factory, I urge you to. It's an hour of fascinating history on the GM mindset. I can't imagine how a sprawling elephant like GM could compete with a nimble Tesla and actually succeed, especially in light of their history. They did good work at NUMMI, thanks to the Toyota influence, but . . . the notion that they could produce a competitor to Tesla, well, I'm skeptical.
 
Thanks for the article! Looks like GM is getting scared of Tesla....and they should be. hahaha. Hopefully this company will stop creating half-assed cars and commit to the future.

Like CKessel and aznt1217 mentioned above, taking notice now only means their (GM, BMW, Ford, others) version 1s wont be available for at least 1.5 - 2 years and by then the Model X could already be selling like hot cakes with a Gen 3 coming out very soon. The Tesla brand will known like Apple is today. This is exactly what Elon wants. Seeing multiple companies interested in entering that market will make Panasonic more likely to build another Lithium battery plant knowing that it'll have lots of customers coming online real soon. This will lower Tesla's battery costs allowing them to better compete with the cheaper GM branded EV's while also still competing higher up with BMW.
 

ggies07

Active Member
Nov 8, 2012
4,117
9,761
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Like CKessel and aznt1217 mentioned above, taking notice now only means their (GM, BMW, Ford, others) version 1s wont be available for at least 1.5 - 2 years and by then the Model X could already be selling like hot cakes with a Gen 3 coming out very soon. The Tesla brand will known like Apple is today. This is exactly what Elon wants. Seeing multiple companies interested in entering that market will make Panasonic more likely to build another Lithium battery plant knowing that it'll have lots of customers coming online real soon. This will lower Tesla's battery costs allowing them to better compete with the cheaper GM branded EV's while also still competing higher up with BMW.

oh yeah, I agree, competition is good for the EV future. It's just nice to know that reality is settling in for them and they know they have been out played in this area.
 

30seconds

Active Member
Feb 28, 2013
2,389
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one of the big problems the large companies are going to face is the fact that they have chopped up their cars into component systems and then outsourced manfuacturing. this not only leads to outsourcing your expertise but also firm/software fragmentation. Telsa makes much of the car in-house including leading all the software work. Here is a thought experiment - if you assumed the big guys could manufacturer a drive system (including battery management) competitive with Tesla how long will it take them to redesign their cars (and supply chain) to the point where they can push updates over the air? Major updates like turning on new functionality or changing things like the regeneration options.

How many top software people do you know who live in or would move to Detroit? Would GM shift full design to SoCal? What about ongoing operations?

Telsa has done much more than just design and manufacturer an electric vehicle
 
one of the big problems the large companies are going to face is the fact that they have chopped up their cars into component systems and then outsourced manfuacturing. this not only leads to outsourcing your expertise but also firm/software fragmentation. Telsa makes much of the car in-house including leading all the software work. Here is a thought experiment - if you assumed the big guys could manufacturer a drive system (including battery management) competitive with Tesla how long will it take them to redesign their cars (and supply chain) to the point where they can push updates over the air? Major updates like turning on new functionality or changing things like the regeneration options.

How many top software people do you know who live in or would move to Detroit? Would GM shift full design to SoCal? What about ongoing operations?

Telsa has done much more than just design and manufacturer an electric vehicle

I did a full tour of SpaceX in 2012, and I have yet to do the Tesla factory tour, but what I learned about SpaceX sheds interesting light on Tesla.

At SpaceX, what I heard over and over again is that they can build rockets for 10% of the cost that giants like Boeing or Lockheed can make 'em, because they build everything right there in Hawthorne. Every part, from rocket engine to the capsules to life support to the various stages and structure and so on, everything's right there. Contrast with say Boeing or the the old Shuttle, which had hundreds (thousands?) of suppliers all over the world, and that brought huge logistical and financial overhead which added to the bottom line.

Tesla seems to be operating in the same fashion, though they are getting many parts from third-party suppliers. But what I hear is that they want to do more and more in-house in their factory as production scales and it becomes cost-effective to make their own parts in the vast colossus that is NUMMI. This can only help with margins in the end.
 
I did a full tour of SpaceX in 2012, and I have yet to do the Tesla factory tour, but what I learned about SpaceX sheds interesting light on Tesla.

At SpaceX, what I heard over and over again is that they can build rockets for 10% of the cost that giants like Boeing or Lockheed can make 'em, because they build everything right there in Hawthorne. Every part, from rocket engine to the capsules to life support to the various stages and structure and so on, everything's right there. Contrast with say Boeing or the the old Shuttle, which had hundreds (thousands?) of suppliers all over the world, and that brought huge logistical and financial overhead which added to the bottom line.

Tesla seems to be operating in the same fashion, though they are getting many parts from third-party suppliers. But what I hear is that they want to do more and more in-house in their factory as production scales and it becomes cost-effective to make their own parts in the vast colossus that is NUMMI. This can only help with margins in the end.

Vertical integration is always tricky. I think Elon's approach is more of, making the parts in house that they feel they have quality control over and where it counts most for the customer. The best example of failure in management is DeLorean which many shorts use as reference (but I do think Elon is doing it right and is trying to control the growth in production/sales in the best fashion possible).
 
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