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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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#9,346
FANGO said:
Larken said:
although I don't have any statisics, I think ICE vehicles are more prone to catch fire than a Tesla vehicle/QUOTE]


Statistics do exist for this. Something like 200k car fires happen per year in the US, which makes up ~.1% of the US vehicle fleet. At that rate you would expect 1/1,000 of Teslas to catch fire per year. This has not happened, and therefore the rate is lower.

The rate of fires, by the way, is actually higher with certain high-performace vehicles. Ferraris and Lamborghinis are particularly susceptible to fire, and the 458 was even recalled for a fire issue because LOTS of them caught on fire (way more than 1/1,000 per year).
Click to expand...

This got me to thinking, so I tried to locate some current data about this...got any source? I found 'old' (2005 data from UK). Would be nice to put in perspective vehicle fires/miles driven. that is what they did in UK report (of course it was in kms, not miles)

mods: sorry this is off topic but does pertain to affect on short term price
Click to expand...
 
#9,352
Fast cars and accidents will happen to everyone. How many times have you witness ICE engine cars burn down on freeways? 1 out of 15,000 MODEL S and No Raodster fire is very impressive. Im holding and buying more on the dip. I just feel sorry for the newbies who overreacted and sold only to witness the stock rebound in a couple weeks even stronger. Good luck to all.
 
#9,354
AlMc said:
Quite the day, and based on extended hours trading it may not be over. I was lucky today with my trades but I am interested in what some of the senior members of this forum think....I will miss someone (so no offense)....Sleepy, Dave T, Curt, CO...What do you all think will happen 'short term'? Thanks
Click to expand...

I really don't know what is going to happen tomorrow, but if I had to guess I would say that Goldman comes out with a research report and a $97 price target and the stock falls to $155 before recovering somewhat to finish in the $160s.

If that doesn't happen, then tomorrow will be a weak day for TSLA and the day after that Goldman comes out with their report...

If that doesn't happen then TSLA will start off the day with a small $3 gap down and then after some initial uncertainty, after market open, the stock will start going down all the way to $171 and that will be your buy point. So make sure to set some $171.33 limit orders to buy the stock if you want to get in. The stock will test the $171 number two or three times before rebounding back strongly to finish the day above $175.

I can't see the stock going up tomorrow, it just doesn't make sense in my mind unless there is some good news/press release from Tesla (but that would scream sore loser to me if they did that). If the stock does go up strong tomorrow to $190 or so with no news then this is a sign it will probably reach $250-$300 by the end of the year.

What I do know for sure is that CapOp, Norse, and I did know exactly what was going to happen today, but most people here shrugged it off at were buying the falling knife. You guys are so lucky that Tesla came out with a press release at $175, and that there was some metal debris (allegedly) that caused the fire. Otherwise the stock would have kept on falling to the $160s and a lot further than that had Tesla kept quiet or their was spontaneous combustion.

Easy money was to be made. Instead of focusing on buying calls at the bottom (which doesn't make sense today because IV is so high that you are not getting a great bargain considering the huge risk) you should have been buying weekly OTM putts.

I bought Oct04 $160 puts today for $0.13 when TSLA was trading around $184.5 - $185. The bid/ask was $0.09/$0.13 so I put a limit in for $0.12. Since it didn't get filled within 5 seconds I quickly changed it to full ask price to make sure I don't miss out once the stock starts tanking (which CapOp and I pointed out several times). They got up to $1.12 a few hours later (almost a 10 bagger), but I knew that there was more to come so I held on, but then Tesla came out with a statement that sparked a (would be my guess) algo led rally to $180; you bet everyone setup algo's to watch Jalopnik, Tesla, Bloomberg, etc. for an official update and to buy as much as possible if there is a "reasonable" explanation for the fire.

Even after the price went up I sold some of the puts I bought earlier in the day to take some profits. So I sold 40% of my $160s at the end of the day when TSLA was at $181.5. I made a 3.5-bagger even though TSLA only went down by less than 2%; think about that for a moment (like I said easy money). I also bought some $170s, $175s, and $180s and sold about half of them for a 150% - 250% gain. It could have been a lot more if Schwab would have had the option to put in a trailing stop order, which would have been perfect in this situation with the options I had.

I knew that there was a chance that Tesla would come out with a press release but I am not an algo and can't monitor the interwebs as fast as super computers can. I now know how Garry Kasparov felt when he was playing chess against Deep Blue.

This truly was easy money, especially after an analyst downgraded TSLA. It was also a great learning experience for me. I didn't know what to do once I figured out to buy puts. I didn't have any capital so I even starting selling some beloved CSIQ calls and some TSLA bull-call spreads, that would have been easy money for me, just to get my hands on some puts. I just bought a little of everything.

These easy money situations come up extremely rarely (if ever) and you have to take advantage of these investing opportunities and then put in as much cash as you can live with losing and load up on weekly options. Instead of trying to time the bottom to buy calls for a 20% discount, which have a high probability of expiring worthless, you should have been buying puts with us here who posted about doing this.

I am still holding about half my puts for tomorrow, so I think that there is still a chance I get my 10-baggers. Either way, I don't care. I am just happy that I pulled the trigger and it worked; even if all my puts go worthless tomorrow. I did buy a couple a Nov $225 calls at the end of the day with some of the put money I made, but not many. The IV is way too high right now to be buying calls unless you are absolutely sure TSLA will be at $190 next week. Let the stock consolidate in the $170s (or even $185) for a week before buying your calls (or tomorrow at $171.33). There is still a realistic chance that this stock goes tanking big time by Friday.

Happy investing everyone.
 
#9,355
I think the news tonight will mean another dip for us to buy in the morning... All the press headlines really need is the following keywords: Tesla, Model S, fire, battery pack

- - - Updated - - -

sleepyhead said:
I really don't know what is going to happen tomorrow, but if I had to guess I would say that Goldman comes out with a research report and a $97 price target and the stock falls to $155 before recovering somewhat to finish in the $160s.

If that doesn't happen, then tomorrow will be a weak day for TSLA and the day after that Goldman comes out with their report...

If that doesn't happen then TSLA will start off the day with a small $3 gap down and then after some initial uncertainty, after market open, the stock will start going down all the way to $171 and that will be your buy point. So make sure to set some $171.33 limit orders to buy the stock if you want to get in. The stock will test the $171 number two or three times before rebounding back strongly to finish the day above $175.

I can't see the stock going up tomorrow, it just doesn't make sense in my mind unless there is some good news/press release from Tesla (but that would scream sore loser to me if they did that). If the stock does go up strong tomorrow to $190 or so with no news then this is a sign it will probably reach $250-$300 by the end of the year.

What I do know for sure is that CapOp, Norse, and I did know exactly what was going to happen today, but most people here shrugged it off at were buying the falling knife. You guys are so lucky that Tesla came out with a press release at $175, and that there was some metal debris (allegedly) that caused the fire. Otherwise the stock would have kept on falling to the $160s and a lot further than that had Tesla kept quiet or their was spontaneous combustion.

Easy money was to be made. Instead of focusing on buying calls at the bottom (which doesn't make sense today because IV is so high that you are not getting a great bargain considering the huge risk) you should have been buying weekly OTM putts.

I bought Oct04 $160 puts today for $0.13 when TSLA was trading around $184.5 - $185. The bid/ask was $0.09/$0.13 so I put a limit in for $0.12. Since it didn't get filled within 5 seconds I quickly changed it to full ask price to make sure I don't miss out once the stock starts tanking (which CapOp and I pointed out several times). They got up to $1.12 a few hours later (almost a 10 bagger), but I knew that there was more to come so I held on, but then Tesla came out with a statement that sparked a (would be my guess) algo led rally to $180; you bet everyone setup algo's to watch Jalopnik, Tesla, Bloomberg, etc. for an official update and to buy as much as possible if there is a "reasonable" explanation for the fire.

Even after the price went up I sold some of the puts I bought earlier in the day to take some profits. So I sold 40% of my $160s at the end of the day when TSLA was at $181.5. I made a 3.5-bagger even though TSLA only went down by less than 2%; think about that for a moment (like I said easy money). I also bought some $170s, $175s, and $180s and sold about half of them for a 150% - 250% gain. It could have been a lot more if Schwab would have had the option to put in a trailing stop order, which would have been perfect in this situation with the options I had.

I knew that there was a chance that Tesla would come out with a press release but I am not an algo and can't monitor the interwebs as fast as super computers can. I now know how Garry Kasparov felt when he was playing chess against Deep Blue.

This truly was easy money, especially after an analyst downgraded TSLA. It was also a great learning experience for me. I didn't know what to do once I figured out to buy puts. I didn't have any capital so I even starting selling some beloved CSIQ calls and some TSLA bull-call spreads, that would have been easy money for me, just to get my hands on some puts. I just bought a little of everything.

These easy money situations come up extremely rarely (if ever) and you have to take advantage of these investing opportunities and then put in as much cash as you can live with losing and load up on weekly options. Instead of trying to time the bottom to buy calls for a 20% discount, which have a high probability of expiring worthless, you should have been buying puts with us here who posted about doing this.

I am still holding about half my puts for tomorrow, so I think that there is still a chance I get my 10-baggers. Either way, I don't care. I am just happy that I pulled the trigger and it worked; even if all my puts go worthless tomorrow. I did buy a couple a Nov $225 calls at the end of the day with some of the put money I made, but not many. The IV is way too high right now to be buying calls unless you are absolutely sure TSLA will be at $190 next week. Let the stock consolidate in the $170s (or even $185) for a week before buying your calls (or tomorrow at $171.33). There is still a realistic chance that this stock goes tanking big time by Friday.

Happy investing everyone.
Click to expand...
I considered buying puts as well, but I didn't want to risk it with Tesla moving up so quickly... Do you think it's too late now?
 
#9,356
sleepyhead said:
I really don't know what is going to happen tomorrow, but if I had to guess I would say that Goldman comes out with a research report and a $97 price target and the stock falls to $155 before recovering somewhat to finish in the $160s.

If that doesn't happen, then tomorrow will be a weak day for TSLA and the day after that Goldman comes out with their report...

If that doesn't happen then TSLA will start off the day with a small $3 gap down and then after some initial uncertainty, after market open, the stock will start going down all the way to $171 and that will be your buy point. So make sure to set some $171.33 limit orders to buy the stock if you want to get in. The stock will test the $171 number two or three times before rebounding back strongly to finish the day above $175.

I can't see the stock going up tomorrow, it just doesn't make sense in my mind unless there is some good news/press release from Tesla (but that would scream sore loser to me if they did that). If the stock does go up strong tomorrow to $190 or so with no news then this is a sign it will probably reach $250-$300 by the end of the year.

What I do know for sure is that CapOp, Norse, and I did know exactly what was going to happen today, but most people here shrugged it off at were buying the falling knife. You guys are so lucky that Tesla came out with a press release at $175, and that there was some metal debris (allegedly) that caused the fire. Otherwise the stock would have kept on falling to the $160s and a lot further than that had Tesla kept quiet or their was spontaneous combustion.

Easy money was to be made. Instead of focusing on buying calls at the bottom (which doesn't make sense today because IV is so high that you are not getting a great bargain considering the huge risk) you should have been buying weekly OTM putts.

I bought Oct04 $160 puts today for $0.13 when TSLA was trading around $184.5 - $185. The bid/ask was $0.09/$0.13 so I put a limit in for $0.12. Since it didn't get filled within 5 seconds I quickly changed it to full ask price to make sure I don't miss out once the stock starts tanking (which CapOp and I pointed out several times). They got up to $1.12 a few hours later (almost a 10 bagger), but I knew that there was more to come so I held on, but then Tesla came out with a statement that sparked a (would be my guess) algo led rally to $180; you bet everyone setup algo's to watch Jalopnik, Tesla, Bloomberg, etc. for an official update and to buy as much as possible if there is a "reasonable" explanation for the fire.

Even after the price went up I sold some of the puts I bought earlier in the day to take some profits. So I sold 40% of my $160s at the end of the day when TSLA was at $181.5. I made a 3.5-bagger even though TSLA only went down by less than 2%; think about that for a moment (like I said easy money). I also bought some $170s, $175s, and $180s and sold about half of them for a 150% - 250% gain. It could have been a lot more if Schwab would have had the option to put in a trailing stop order, which would have been perfect in this situation with the options I had.

I knew that there was a chance that Tesla would come out with a press release but I am not an algo and can't monitor the interwebs as fast as super computers can. I now know how Garry Kasparov felt when he was playing chess against Deep Blue.

This truly was easy money, especially after an analyst downgraded TSLA. It was also a great learning experience for me. I didn't know what to do once I figured out to buy puts. I didn't have any capital so I even starting selling some beloved CSIQ calls and some TSLA bull-call spreads, that would have been easy money for me, just to get my hands on some puts. I just bought a little of everything.

These easy money situations come up extremely rarely (if ever) and you have to take advantage of these investing opportunities and then put in as much cash as you can live with losing and load up on weekly options. Instead of trying to time the bottom to buy calls for a 20% discount, which have a high probability of expiring worthless, you should have been buying puts with us here who posted about doing this.

I am still holding about half my puts for tomorrow, so I think that there is still a chance I get my 10-baggers. Either way, I don't care. I am just happy that I pulled the trigger and it worked; even if all my puts go worthless tomorrow. I did buy a couple a Nov $225 calls at the end of the day with some of the put money I made, but not many. The IV is way too high right now to be buying calls unless you are absolutely sure TSLA will be at $190 next week. Let the stock consolidate in the $170s (or even $185) for a week before buying your calls (or tomorrow at $171.33). There is still a realistic chance that this stock goes tanking big time by Friday.

Happy investing everyone.
Click to expand...

Well played Sleepy. Thanks for your input. You and CO were the reason I sold 1/3 of my holdings (and caught a little grief for it) at 187 and turned around and bought back in (luckily) at the low point for 175.40. I wish I had more of a feel for options. Despite my reading/research on them they still scare me.

Again thanks. Don't be a stranger to posting your thoughts tomorrow :wink: (or any day for that matter)

Edit: CO..That goes for you to!
 
#9,358
hershey101 said:
So, before people start spreading FUD, here is a question to think about:
IF Teslas can easily catch on fire in the case of an accident, why did it get a 5 star crash test rating in all categories, and why was it determined to be the safest vehicle ever?
Click to expand...

Because only a standard set of tests are performed, not necessarily scenarios that can cause a car to catch fire. Some safety aspects can be complied with via analysis, not test, and are only "best by judgment" as not all scenarios can be tested or is practical to test. Bottom line, even with a high safety rating, things can go wrong.
 
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