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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
It was a hedge, not a short. In closing it out, I should have treated it as such. I didn't, I treated it like a trade.

Oh, and I'm glad that you didn't get burned following me into this. I know it was touch and go for a while there. Good job sticking with it.
After sleeping on it, while it was just a trade for me, I'm not feeling as good about closing it out. If the battery fire hadn't occurred I would be, but the potential short term negative feels pretty high this morning.

Yea, just looked now and premarket is down quite a bit. I didn't lose money on the put, but I lost some potential.
 
It's starting to look like pre-market is taking a sober view of this with 45 or so minutes slow but steady climb from $175 to $177 where it now idles floating between $177-$178. I don't mind a short tip at start of trade followed by a calm run up to ~$185 range where it can consolidate until further news. But I do mind a drop to below $170 :) Still consider getting some short term insurance.
 
If there was truly an investment concern about a product that is faulty I could see the stock tumbling. But in this case its not, the car was hit by a metallic object, could be large or sharp. The fact remains, Fisker to my knowledge didn't create as many vehicles as Tesla and the Fisker caught fire just sitting around. This was hit like any other vehicle and like any other vehicle has a chance for volatile results.

The fact that the car told the driver to get out of the vehicle because there was a problem is mind blowingly amazing. Is there another car on the market that does this? I am genuinely curious, because I haven't heard of one.

The only time I would be concerned about a long term investment with Tesla is if other cars started popping up that are in flames in a wreck. So far there have been many Model S wrecks due to driver error, even ones that have gone through buildings and there has not been fire. This is rare if nothing else and shouldn't shake long term investors, if it does, that is more benefit to us to re-invest.

End rant. :)
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
If there was truly an investment concern about a product that is faulty I could see the stock tumbling. But in this case its not, the car was hit by a metallic object, could be large or sharp. The fact remains, Fisker to my knowledge didn't create as many vehicles as Tesla and the Fisker caught fire just sitting around. This was hit like any other vehicle and like any other vehicle has a chance for volatile results.
Yea, that's sort of the crux of. The "chance" part is an unknown. Bottom vehicle hits are going to happen, so the long term impact depends on what the findings are for Tesla's likelihood of catching fire vs a gas car in that particular situation.

ICEs are clearly going to catch fire more often in general, but that doesn't mean Tesla's (or NHTSA or whoever) won't reveal a remediation for the future. Airline travel is statistically safer than auto, but the FAA still investigates every single airplane crash just for that sort of reason, to discover if anything systemic could be addressed in the future to make it even better.
 
Pre-market looking less scary than it was a while ago when TSLA touched as low as $173.00.

I think within the first 30 minutes the bulls and bears will stage a massive battle to defend or break 20MA ($175.69) which happens to be also around the low of the trend channel. If the bear wins we should expect retest of previous resistant level $173 and after that the breakout level $164-166 before Deutsche Bank upgrade two weeks ago.

If we ever touch $164-166 level, I will be loading up with short-dated calls as a rebound can be expect after this weekend. I'm sure Elon and his team are working hard (they need a few days though) to investigate the incident and issue public statements to calm the buyers and the market on Monday. I don't think we can expect any announcement today or even tomorrow as the damaged car still likely need to be transported back to Tesla center in California (10-12 hours drive from Seattle). A thorough investigation and reporting will take a few days.

- - - Updated - - -

Hopefully and I pray hard we will open above 20MA support level so that at least the bulls have a shot at defending it. If we happen to gap down below 20MA level, say open at $173-174, the bears will most likely control the majority of the trading session today :(
 
The fire does little to shake my long term bullish view on TSLA, though I must admit I'm disappointed Tesla hasn't come out yet with a more comprehensive statement on their blog. When I click to the Tesla blog at Tesla Blog | Tesla Motors I see an old post on the hyperloop. This gives the impression they're either disconnected from the concerns of customers and investors, or it's reluctant to deal with it publicly. In my prior life, I ran a PR firm. Tesla has a crisis on its hands. If it deals with the crisis swiftly, it'll make it yesterday's old news. If it fails to confront it head-on, it'll fester like a cancer and damage the company long term. Tesla has an opportunity to turn this event into a net positive if it quickly comes out with a fuller disclosure of what happened, what it knows, and most importantly, what it doesn't know and what its plan is to determine what it doesn't know. And then articulate that as with all accidents, it will strive to incorporate what it learns to make the cars even more safe. And then remind customers/investors about the proud safety record, but also reiterate that they will remain relentless in their focus to make the Tesla the safest car on the road and to that it will continue to study this and learn from this. And then continue to keep us updated as its investigation progresses. The big risk Tesla faces now is that the story is taking on a life of its own, and it's damaging the brand. Tesla should have come out with such a statement before the market open.
 

Norse

Active Member
May 8, 2013
1,128
4
Bergen, Norway
The fire does little to shake my long term bullish view on TSLA, though I must admit I'm disappointed Tesla hasn't come out yet with a more comprehensive statement on their blog. When I click to the Tesla blog at Tesla Blog | Tesla Motors I see an old post on the hyperloop. This gives the impression they're either disconnected from the concerns of customers and investors, or it's reluctant to deal with it publicly. In my prior life, I ran a PR firm. Tesla has a crisis on its hands. If it deals with the crisis swiftly, it'll make it yesterday's old news. If it fails to confront it head-on, it'll fester like a cancer and damage the company long term. Tesla has an opportunity to turn this event into a net positive if it quickly comes out with a fuller disclosure of what happened, what it knows, and most importantly, what it doesn't know and what its plan is to determine what it doesn't know. And then articulate that as with all accidents, it will strive to incorporate what it learns to make the cars even more safe. And then remind customers/investors about the proud safety record, but also reiterate that they will remain relentless in their focus to make the Tesla the safest car on the road and to that it will continue to study this and learn from this. And then continue to keep us updated as its investigation progresses. The big risk Tesla faces now is that the story is taking on a life of its own, and it's damaging the brand. Tesla should have come out with such a statement before the market open.

They will obv when they have the facts. It would be stupid if they did in a rush, to find out they havent checked the car 100%
 

aznt1217

Active Member
Aug 27, 2012
2,560
1,870
New York, NY
The fire does little to shake my long term bullish view on TSLA, though I must admit I'm disappointed Tesla hasn't come out yet with a more comprehensive statement on their blog. When I click to the Tesla blog at Tesla Blog | Tesla Motors I see an old post on the hyperloop. This gives the impression they're either disconnected from the concerns of customers and investors, or it's reluctant to deal with it publicly. In my prior life, I ran a PR firm. Tesla has a crisis on its hands. If it deals with the crisis swiftly, it'll make it yesterday's old news. If it fails to confront it head-on, it'll fester like a cancer and damage the company long term. Tesla has an opportunity to turn this event into a net positive if it quickly comes out with a fuller disclosure of what happened, what it knows, and most importantly, what it doesn't know and what its plan is to determine what it doesn't know. And then articulate that as with all accidents, it will strive to incorporate what it learns to make the cars even more safe. And then remind customers/investors about the proud safety record, but also reiterate that they will remain relentless in their focus to make the Tesla the safest car on the road and to that it will continue to study this and learn from this. And then continue to keep us updated as its investigation progresses. The big risk Tesla faces now is that the story is taking on a life of its own, and it's damaging the brand. Tesla should have come out with such a statement before the market open.

You do realize the fire happened 8 AM in Seattle area... it's going to take time to transport the car back to Tesla after it goes through local authorities and what not.
 
They will obv when they have the facts. It would be stupid if they did in a rush, to find out they havent checked the car 100%

They can make a statement before they have all the facts, IF they clearly articulate what they know, what they don't know, and what's their plan to determine what they don't know. For example, have they flown a team of engineers to Washington to inspect the car? Are they in possession of the car? If we were to learn they had engineering on scene Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning, imagine how far that would go to put concerns to rest that they were on top of this, and that they cared. They can articulate the approach to their investigation, and articulate a timeline. The problem now is that they've left a void of information, and anytime you allow such a void to prosper, misinformation multiplies.
 

aznt1217

Active Member
Aug 27, 2012
2,560
1,870
New York, NY
They can make a statement before they have all the facts, IF they clearly articulate what they know, what they don't know, and what's their plan to determine what they don't know. For example, have they flown a team of engineers to Washington to inspect the car? Are they in possession of the car? If we were to learn they had engineering on scene Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning, imagine how far that would go to put concerns to rest that they were on top of this, and that they cared. They can articulate the approach to their investigation, and articulate a timeline. The problem now is that they've left a void of information, and anytime you allow such a void to prosper, misinformation multiplies.

The car is now in Tesla's possession and being inspected, mods are probably going to move these posts to the accident/fire thread.
 

Norse

Active Member
May 8, 2013
1,128
4
Bergen, Norway
As I predicted....epic battle between bulls/bears to defend or destroy 20MA support level. So far the bulls are winning. In 20 minutes, we shall have a better confirmation...hopefully to the upside. Let's pray!

Im must say, im not worried at all. Trying to buy options, but want the price to go down abit. If it goes over 180, I will bet alot of money that it wont get under that before Q3. Also if it gets over 180, I think alot of shorters will start covering.
 
They can make a statement before they have all the facts, IF they clearly articulate what they know, what they don't know, and what's their plan to determine what they don't know. For example, have they flown a team of engineers to Washington to inspect the car? Are they in possession of the car? If we were to learn they had engineering on scene Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning, imagine how far that would go to put concerns to rest that they were on top of this, and that they cared. They can articulate the approach to their investigation, and articulate a timeline. The problem now is that they've left a void of information, and anytime you allow such a void to prosper, misinformation multiplies.

They don't need to give us minute by minute updates. They have already told us last night what they think happened. They may not know enough yet themselves. Accident investigations take time and I believe fully they are working in good faith for all parties.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
20 day MA is in good shape. I think cooler heads will prevail. Remember that 75% of the people trading this are looking for an entry point...

Yes, very encouraging. I think we are okay as long as there is no new news. I'm not buying right now, going to give it a few hours to settle down. If the rest of the morning looks like the day has so far, I might start shopping for my earnings plays.
 

sp4rk

Banned
Apr 25, 2012
1,219
5
Schaumburg, IL
Ditto. not worried at all. In fact, I'm far from convinced this is not a setup.
On another thread, someone pointed out, as I thought when I watched the video; the witness said it was a brand new car. How would they know that?
And leaving the scene, said it was a Tesla.
Sorry, something SMELLS.
I "trust" that Tesla will make a statement when they're prepared, if at all, but I agree one is needed to quell the virus.
Just take advantage of the dip!
 
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