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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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NFLX provides a good case study of how an otherwise pristine company made a series of PR blunders in quick succession that shattered investor confidence and caused the stock to plummet. Golden children, priced to perfection, are extremely vulnerable to such a turn.

Think back to when Tesla announced the voluntary recall in June, on the blog. Partial Recall | Blog | Tesla Motors The stock went up because Tesla proactively owned it, acknowledged it, and articulated their plan. Customers and investors will forgive mistakes if a company owns up to it and acknowledges it and provides a plan.

Tesla could stop the bloodletting now by taking control of the message, rather than trying to allow a few spokesperson comments land here or there at some news outlets. The WSJ just came out with a story with the headline, "Tesla Shares Keep Burning, Questions Swirl About Car Fire." Do folks realize how incredibly damaging that headline is? "Questions swirl" implies lack of control, lack of transparency, lack of trust, lack of competency, unanswered questions. The story has no Tesla comment, and when there's a void of information reporters seek out information from others who are less informed. There's an analyst comment. Sorry, but when you're facing a PR crisis, the company needs to carry the message, not a surrogate analyst.

I can trust Elon and the team can handle this better than the NFLX folks? Yes I can.

As to the recall incident, Tesla has more control over when and how they want to communicate to the public. In this fire incident, they are more in reactive mode and let's see how soon they can keep this under control.
 
NFLX provides a good case study of how an otherwise pristine company made a series of PR blunders in quick succession that shattered investor confidence and caused the stock to plummet. Golden children, priced to perfection, are extremely vulnerable to such a turn.

Good point @Sunnyday

That's why I believe Elon and the team should take the time to carefully plan their PR strategy and not rush into making PR blunders that almost destroyed NFLX.

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Yeah it is a risky bet in such unusual unusual circumstance. $170 is a good price. Yes we can draw all the line and come to the magic number $164, but more than likely it won't be hit.

Great bet Kevin! Kudos to you! Almost double your money on the calls!
 
I can trust Elon and the team can handle this better than the NFLX folks? Yes I can.

It would be tough for anyone to match the PR blunders of Netflix during that time. I trust Elon and team is capable of pulling this off, but they need to show it now, not tomorrow or the day after. For example, a simple tweet from Elon that says "I'm personally overseeing the investigation into the fire. We have a team on scene and will report more soon" would alleviate the fear that's now running rampant, as evidenced by the market's panicked reaction. Once there's more of a response via Twitter or the blog, we'll see TSLA back to 190 in no time.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
Sleepyhead noted buying calls right now is expensive due to the implied volatility. How long does it take for IV to settle down after something like this (assuming the stock trades relatively flat at some point here soon...)? We talking a couple days or weeks?
 
It would be tough for anyone to match the PR blunders of Netflix during that time. I trust Elon and team is capable of pulling this off, but they need to show it now, not tomorrow or the day after. For example, a simple tweet from Elon that says "I'm personally overseeing the investigation into the fire. We have a team on scene and will report more soon" would alleviate the fear that's now running rampant, as evidenced by the market's panicked reaction. Once there's more of a response via Twitter or the blog, we'll see TSLA back to 190 in no time.


+100.

This incident surely reminds you of the heavy brick and mortar side of the company. I believe in Elon Musk. I remember he was the first to jump in conference calls to help Boeing during the 787 battery issues and he will definitely give it his all for his own company and take care of PR side. with his smoothness. I bought Elon Musk, I didn't buy TSLA with my hard earned $.. :)
 

TSLAopt

Active Member
Supporting Member
May 20, 2013
1,082
405
Northern Cal
It would be tough for anyone to match the PR blunders of Netflix during that time. I trust Elon and team is capable of pulling this off, but they need to show it now, not tomorrow or the day after. For example, a simple tweet from Elon that says "I'm personally overseeing the investigation into the fire. We have a team on scene and will report more soon" would alleviate the fear that's now running rampant, as evidenced by the market's panicked reaction. Once there's more of a response via Twitter or the blog, we'll see TSLA back to 190 in no time.

company spokesperson put out the statements of what they know so far. That should be sufficient until they have something more formal that's worth creating a blog entry for.
im sure they are all working hard on it and it will come out in the next day or few days, perhaps over the weekend with a more official and thorough response.
the markets are irrational and while I'm losing a ton of money now I know it will come back eventually...stocks have to take a breather...this in the long term is a healthy breather...shakes out a lot of weak longs and will re-establish long term market confidence and credibility in the stock as the stock price recovers (ie. less "bubble" talk if it keeps recovering after these minor "bubble pops").
 

brianman

Burrito Founder
Nov 10, 2011
17,615
3,217
Selling opportunity for puts
Buying opportunity for calls and stock

Those that were looking for a dip to make a move on, hope you had your liquidity ready.


Until today, this had been significantly underwater:
Code:
2013/09/19  BUY   PUT TSLA OCT 19 13 $160 @ $3.92
2013/10/03  SELL  PUT TSLA OCT 19 13 $160 @ $5.00
 
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Hearing Deutsche Bank Says Tesla Will Not Make Changes to Battery Pack Design as Impact was Very Specific

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...s-tesla-will-not-make-changes-t#ixzz2gflGEReZ

Hmm. Assuming that's really what DB is saying, and assuming Tesla has conveyed those comments to DB already but not to investors, that would be a PR and disclosure blunder on Tesla's part. That's two big assumptions, so fingers crossed neither of those things have happened. That's the analyst who appeared in the WSJ story. I really hope they're not planning to use analysts as proxies for information they should be disseminating on their own.
 
I simply hate the fact that TSLA keep sitting on that $171 level for past 20 minutes. It looks ominous. The shattered the 20MA support after sitting on the top of it for also around 20 minutes.

I am now concerned if it continue this way....the bears will wait for the right timing (maybe around 12PM - 1PM) to take this down to below $170...then drive it all the way down to 50MA support level which TESLA has even come close to touching since the huge run up.

Maybe the bears (short-sellers) are really out today to prove something!

The overall markets plummeting unfortunately give them more wind.
 
Hmm. Assuming that's really what DB is saying, and assuming Tesla has conveyed those comments to DB already but not to investors, that would be a PR and disclosure blunder on Tesla's part. That's two big assumptions, so fingers crossed neither of those things have happened. That's the analyst who appeared in the WSJ story. I really hope they're not planning to use analysts as proxies for information they should be disseminating on their own.

Yes I don't like Analysts making comments on behalf of the company, or info leaking out via analysts. Expect more professionalism in PR than that.
 
here we go...the bears are at it again...they are really trying to take TSLA down to declare their first win.

this is not looking good. I hope Elon comes up with a great PR response before weekend. Otherwise the Bears could even take it further down below 50MA support level of $158-160...and drive TSLA all the way down to pre-earning range $130-140
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
903
916
NoVA
Yes I don't like Analysts making comments on behalf of the company, or info leaking out via analysts. Expect more professionalism in PR than that.

I think what's happening is that the analyst is making a phone call or so to get information and then decide to publish what information they were given as news for the rest of the world to know. It's not like as if TSLA is using DB for their PR.
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
903
916
NoVA
here we go...the bears are at it again...they are really trying to take TSLA down to declare their first win.

this is not looking good. I hope Elon comes up with a great PR response before weekend. Otherwise the Bears could even take it further down below 50MA support level of $158-160...and drive TSLA all the way down to pre-earning range $130-140

Reconstructing how the accident happened won't be a quick endeavor. They have to take into consideration all the possibilities and also come up with reasonable explanation.
 
Hmm. Assuming that's really what DB is saying, and assuming Tesla has conveyed those comments to DB already but not to investors, that would be a PR and disclosure blunder on Tesla's part. That's two big assumptions, so fingers crossed neither of those things have happened. That's the analyst who appeared in the WSJ story. I really hope they're not planning to use analysts as proxies for information they should be disseminating on their own.

I don't see this too negatively. Obviously a lot of fire going on against Tesla so they have to be extremely carefully in what they going to say.

However this incident appears to be the car slam into a scaffold or something sharp(and possibly that piece is still in the car, which is why no one has found it), puncture 1 out of 16 main battery segments, disrupt the cooling system and cause the battery to catch fire.

It is not pretty, but what can you do about it? and how any other car can do a better job about it?

Tesla can't bend their knee to apologize, or to do a blind recall. This will give more firing power to the shorts.

Even if it cause some short term volatility, they have to come out and say the right thing, not just to please the public, but more importantly the integrity of the product and the company. I think I can trust Elon on that. He is strong.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
If we don't see an official, detailed explanation before EOD Friday, I'm thinking it might be worth buying a bunch of Oct 11th calls because odds are good Tesla would put out the official statement on Monday or during the weekend and that'll be a positive catalyst. Good idea? Bad idea?

Sorry I sold my puts now, they'd be huge at this point. Eh, hindsight and all that. I still have more money than if I hadn't done it at all.
 
That's very much like gambling. Remember we're in Government Shutdown....and as we near Debt Ceiling talks....the overall markets will be under huge pressure. We may witness days of great volatility like today..with S&P dropping even 2-3% a day like back in summer 2011. This will obviously have if not negative than at least not positive effect on TSLA.
 
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