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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I am not Chinese, but I have heard from various sources (including people who live in China) that there is a particularly interesting dynamic in China when it comes to foreign cars. To get around the import tariff, many companies will produce cars in China, but these Chinese-version BMWs (or whatever) come with different badging on them. So what the ultra-rich will do is they will buy a genuine European BMW, with European badging, which costs 2x (or whatever) as much, simply to show off that they can afford to spend twice as much on a car which is otherwise exactly the same as the Chinese version. Insert whatever brand you like in there (for example, Buick is really hot in China right now).

It is for this reason that I don't think it's necessary, at least with Model S, at least in the next couple years, to worry about import tariffs. Perhaps once Model S has reached penetration with the ultra-rich in China this will be a problem, but I think this will take years and remember that China has a **lot** of ultra-rich. China has a lot of everything.

I think Tesla will be China's hot brand for quite some time. I think Tesla could literally allocate every car they can make to China for the next 5 years and not have problems with demand. I think China is going to blow the doors off of this thing.

I don’t necessarily agree that Model S will be mostly just for so-called ultra-rich in China. It will be much bigger costumer base than that. According to a recent Mckinsey report, quote, “China is also shifting to a new generation of drivers. In addition to the chauffeur-based segment, the premium market will increasingly include cars driven by their actual owners. These drivers care not only about what their car stands for, but what it can actually do for them, both at an emotional and functional level”
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/asia-pacific/getting_to_know_chinas_premium-car_market
(need free registration to download the report; very interesting read)

Below are 2012 China sale data for some of super luxury brand names
Bentley 2253
Maseratri 1000
Ferrari 500
lamborghini 230
In my mind they’re the ultra rich but not enough to support the demand Model S would like. In fact sales for this group have been dropped even further in 2013 due to economic slowdown and crackdown on lavish spending (policy of the new China president).
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/10/bentley-results-idUSL6N0I01RR20131010

This is not really bad news for Model S since it’s not in that super luxury market. And the brand names Model S will actually compete with still achieved at least moderate growth so far in 2013.
Below are the sale data I found for Q1-Q3 this year.

Q1-Q3 2013
USA
China
Mercedes Benz
215,056
155,906
BMW
212,565
265,364
Audi
114,411
358,213
Cadillac
133,414
32,238
Land Rover-Jaguar
47,806
66,505
Volvo
48,193
43,380
Lexus
190,760
 n/a
Acura
120,830
 n/a
Infinity
80,919
 n/a
Lincoln
59,852
 n/a
Porsche
31,549
27,458
Below are the MSRP prices for some BMW and Porche cars I grabbed from their official website.
BMW
US MSRP (USD)
China MSRP(RMB)
China MSRP (USD)
528i
$49,500
689,000
$112,951
X5sDrive35i
528000
901,000
$147,705
740Li
78,000
1,218,000
$199,672
 
 
 
 
Porsche
US MSRP (USD)
China MSRP(RMB)
China MSRP (USD)
Boxster
$50,400
753,000
$123,443
911 Carrera
$84,300
1,524,000
$249,836
Cayenne
$49,600
922,000
$151,148
Cayenne S
$66,800
1,542,000
$252,787
Panamera
$78,100
1,138,000
$186,557
Panamera Turbo Executive
$161,100
2,688,000
$440,656
The Chinese MSRP is much high due to taxes as well as the huge mark-up the manufacturers charge. Yet we know Porche still sold 27458 cars first 9 months this year (for 2010-2012 it was 14788, 24341 and 31205 respectively). Model S could have two advantages price-wise. Firstly there is no mark-up in price in China. Secondly Model S is expected to pay less tax because a big part of the taxes is dependent on engine size. In fact we already know the top-configured model S will be priced at around 1M RMB or $163K in China. This can be considered as an extremely attractive deal compared to buying a Panamera. I hope Elon can ship more lower-priced cars maybe starting at 600-800K RMB very soon to truly reach the majority of potential buyers in that 1.2M/year premium/luxury car market.
 

mulder1231

Active Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,828
10,641
San Diego

v12 to 12v

Active Member
Jul 10, 2012
1,070
26
Street Insider is reporting that Tesla sales in Germany have been slower than anticipated and that is the reason why TSLA is trading down this morning.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Corp.+News/Rapid+Tesla+(TSLA)+Expansion+Hits+Speed+Bump+in+Key+European+Market/8792347.html

Volker.Berlin got his car less than two weeks ago and he was EU #2. I think that the reports of newly registered cars in Germany at this early point would not be a good indicator.
 
Well, not every magazine in Germany is rating it so good. The German automobile club ADAC had a rather mixed review

Auto-Test: Detailseite


Not bad per se, but compared to other competitors not so good either.

The Manager Magazin today also reported low registration numbers for Tesla

Deutschland Zulassungszahlen Model S Tesla - manager magazin

I don't think that sales will pick up significantly before there aren't any SuperChargers in Germany.

Elon Musk is doing a meet and greet kind of event tonight in Munich. I guess he's interested in getting some feedback from German customers.
 
I dont see the problem for TSLA. They can't penetrate every market at the same time. And it was obvious to serve the market with probably highest demand (and margins), Norway. I'm reading nowhere that demand in Germany is low, quite the opposite. Jerome Guillen is quoted saying that they have to speed up the deliveries, as customers were waiting a long time.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
Market is just misreading this. The story here is just that Tesla hasn't delivered many cars to Germany because they have been focused on Norway. It is just noise.

Now, the more important news of the day is that we have proven the top of this parallel channel. We might need to prove we can hold the bottom of it before we move higher.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
I bought most of my Nov options (Nov16) back when the stock "dipped" to the ~183ish point. It'll have to be a blowout quarter just to hit the $195ish I'll need just to break even :(. Playing with fire I guess. After reading and learning here for months and watching TSLA go up, I picked basically the exact moment in time when TSLA shifted to it's current flat/decline to convert 50% of my stake to options. It'd have been hard to time it any worse, other than the ATH.
 

farzyness

Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?
Aug 8, 2013
686
1,847
Earth
Market is just misreading this. The story here is just that Tesla hasn't delivered many cars to Germany because they have been focused on Norway. It is just noise.

Now, the more important news of the day is that we have proven the top of this parallel channel. We might need to prove we can hold the bottom of it before we move higher.

I agree with Citizen. See below for parallel channel interpretation.

tsla 10.21.13.png
 

farzyness

Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?
Aug 8, 2013
686
1,847
Earth
farzyness: care to check where exactly the lower channel is? Support seems to be around $168 that is flat from the two bounces, but the channel bottom is harder to pinpoint from your chart. $173?

Would be around $172.60 for today. Add roughly another $1 for tomorrow's lower limit.

- - - Updated - - -

Curious to see what everyone's thoughts are on the short interest the last week or two of action could have brought on the stock. These down days in the last week or so seem to be coming on relatively normal volume, so I don't really think there's any cause for panic. Could it be a positive move for TSLA in the long run of Q3 ER is as good as a lot of people think it's going to be on this forum?
 

Norse

Active Member
May 8, 2013
1,128
4
Bergen, Norway
Isn't there a Tesla event tonight that Musk is speaking at? Someone posted pictures of an invitation for the event. Anyone going? Maybe he'll use this opportunity to pre-announce something.

Yes, I dont know he much he will say. But he will be there from 1 to 3PM (New York time).
ev-enthusiast is also there with live updates for us!
 

Gtoffo

Member
May 17, 2013
590
307
Milan, Italy
Isn't there a Tesla event tonight that Musk is speaking at? Someone posted pictures of an invitation for the event. Anyone going? Maybe he'll use this opportunity to pre-announce something.

I think since the event is in Germany he will at least comment about the demand situation in Europe/Germany. He might set the record straight regarding the actual demand levels compared to the number of deliveries.
 
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