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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I think since the event is in Germany he will at least comment about the demand situation in Europe/Germany. He might set the record straight regarding the actual demand levels compared to the number of deliveries.

Let's hope he will. This is the longest silence on Twitter I have seen from Elon (except for the explanation on the fire). Market was getting used to regular news and updates.
 
usually after option expiration people use to exercise and go with the stock, today it looks like people prefer to sell, causing the price to go red after hours.
IMO technically we will see at least 175 next week :(
i'm starting to get frustrated as every thing i touch this days is going bad against me.

that amost happen faster than i thought thanks to the idiots of JPM
who can have a price target of 93$ when the stock is trading at 175$ and still rate it as neutral?
 
Let's hope he will. This is the longest silence on Twitter I have seen from Elon (except for the explanation on the fire). Market was getting used to regular news and updates.

Elon might be luring shorts in with this silence as most articles will be negative causing the short interest to get higher and higher. If there is then a blowout ER it'll bring a whole new tsunami of hurt to those shorters. But I do hope some update at least from todays event, any update or data point would be excellent to further the analysis of both short and long term.
 

Chickenlittle

Banned
Sep 10, 2013
2,781
5,167
Virginia
Market is just misreading this. The story here is just that Tesla hasn't delivered many cars to Germany because they have been focused on Norway. It is just noise.

Now, the more important news of the day is that we have proven the top of this parallel channel. We might need to prove we can hold the bottom of it before we move higher.

of course large wait for cars in europe does not speak for decrease in demand either. unfortunately long in tesla means stocking up on prilosec
 

farzyness

Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?
Aug 8, 2013
686
1,847
Earth
Let's hope he will. This is the longest silence on Twitter I have seen from Elon (except for the explanation on the fire). Market was getting used to regular news and updates.

For TSLA to truly become a big time stock it needs to be able to trade confidently without any news from Elon. I think these times of hairyness should be expected.
 
For TSLA to truly become a big time stock it needs to be able to trade confidently without any news from Elon. I think these times of hairyness should be expected.

Agree. However during the growing-up phase information that still shows the growth thesis is intact is helpful to justify the lofty stock price, meaning probably a few quarters worth before he takes the crutches off..?
 
For TSLA to truly become a big time stock it needs to be able to trade confidently without any news from Elon. I think these times of hairyness should be expected.

Agreed. I don't think we can or should expect that Elon tweets or blogs everytime the stock drops. However, it is the responsibility for Elon and his corporate communications team to monitor the messages and memes out there and step in to correct them anytime they veer dangerously off course. In this interview with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg - Liveblogging Tech Renaissance Man Elon Musk at D11 - Liz Gannes - D11 - AllThingsD - Elon talked about why he came down so hard on the NY Times. They were spreading false information and it was hurting sales. He correctly blogged after the fire to counter the incorrect perception that Teslas are balls 'o fire. If orders are in fact strong in Germany, then he should let that message slip out tonight. Most of the recent negative analysts have noted that Tesla is showing impressive execution, yet significant execution risk persists, and the stock is priced to perfection. We know that, and that's not anything Elon would need to tweet about unless overall sentiment turned toward excessive and unwarranted bearishness. In the intermediate run leading up to earnings, I think some increased naysaying could actually be valuable. It'll keep expectations realistic, or lower expectations, and set things up for a beat when earnings are announced. Members on TMC might not be surprised by a beat, but if the rest of the market is surprised, that's a good thing.
 
Anyone else using today to load up on more options? Jan '14 $190s are trading at $15... that's pretty cheap, I bought Nov $190s for the same amount a short time ago.

Dang, didn't see those, but I did buy some more November 190 for $13 (at the first recovery) and March $200 for $18. But weren't we supposed to take this kind of options chats to the social chat part ;)

- - - Updated - - -

Nov190s for $15? That'll require a $205 to break even, which isn't looking like a great bet at this particular point in time.

Those expire post-earnings and one can hedge them on day of earnings very likely. But yes, if we continue downwards it'll be harder.
 

farzyness

Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?
Aug 8, 2013
686
1,847
Earth
Agreed. I don't think we can or should expect that Elon tweets or blogs everytime the stock drops. However, it is the responsibility for Elon and his corporate communications team to monitor the messages and memes out there and step in to correct them anytime they veer dangerously off course. In this interview with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg - Liveblogging Tech Renaissance Man Elon Musk at D11 - Liz Gannes - D11 - AllThingsD - Elon talked about why he came down so hard on the NY Times. They were spreading false information and it was hurting sales. He correctly blogged after the fire to counter the incorrect perception that Teslas are balls 'o fire. If orders are in fact strong in Germany, then he should let that message slip out tonight. Most of the recent negative analysts have noted that Tesla is showing impressive execution, yet significant execution risk persists, and the stock is priced to perfection. We know that, and that's not anything Elon would need to tweet about unless overall sentiment turned toward excessive and unwarranted bearishness. In the intermediate run leading up to earnings, I think some increased naysaying could actually be valuable. It'll keep expectations realistic, or lower expectations, and set things up for a beat when earnings are announced. Members on TMC might not be surprised by a beat, but if the rest of the market is surprised, that's a good thing.

+1 - Agreed 100%
 

EarlyAdopter

Active Member
Jun 24, 2012
2,832
2,095
Redmond, WA
I love how transparently dumb the short side is on Tesla. "What? They only sold 40 cars in Germany in August?! That's terrible. Sales must be plummeting there. Sell! Sell! Sell!" Not even the slightest effort put into reading behind the headline.

40 cars sold in Germany in August? Yep - that's the most Tesla could produce, transport, and allocate to deliver to that market in their first month of deliveries to that country. If they could get more over there, they would have sold more. Only 0.2% market share of EVs in Germany? Duh - August was only the first month Tesla started making deliveries there. It's just a trickle to _start_, not a decline. Using this to predict a problem for Tesla is grasping at straws and just plain wrong.

I bought some NOV22 180 calls on this dip and sold some NOV22 160 puts to offset the high IV. (advanced options trade warning). My trade channel has 173 as the bottom of the channel. We might have a little more downside room left, but I think $176 is a good price.
 
I would have just one question for the author of that article: How can something slow that even just starts ? "....sales are slowing in one of its key markets..."
Are You kidding me ? The 42 Model S delivered in September were among the first delivered (perhaps a few in August). These ****** articles piling up are really annoying.
It borders to calumny in my book.
 

brianman

Burrito Founder
Nov 10, 2011
17,615
3,217
I bought some NOV22 180 calls on this dip and sold some NOV22 160 puts to offset the high IV. (advanced options trade warning). My trade channel has 173 as the bottom of the channel. We might have a little more downside room left, but I think $176 is a good price.
Code:
2013/10/15 BUY  TSLA NOV 16 13 $150 @ $4.20/sh
2013/10/21 SELL TSLA NOV 16 13 $150 @ $4.90/sh
+16.6...%
 
Looks like we are retesting the bottom of the channel:

xWDub2M6.png
 

FluxCap

Active Member
Oct 3, 2013
2,524
1,908
DC
Market is just misreading this. The story here is just that Tesla hasn't delivered many cars to Germany because they have been focused on Norway. It is just noise.

Now, the more important news of the day is that we have proven the top of this parallel channel. We might need to prove we can hold the bottom of it before we move higher.

I agree, my guess is that algos pushed the stock down on this German article, since I can't find anything else compelling that would move us 3%.

Frankly, I'm suprised that there hasn't been more negativity out of Germany before now, because the real news here is competition. Never mind the silly articles on Tesla's "competition" being other EV's in the USA. We know what Tesla's real competition is to date...who makes the best luxury sedans in the world? Germany. And I wonder how happy they are about these brash Americans preparing to make them irrelevant for years to come?

This is the news I care about:

Tesla sales beating Mercedes, BMW and Audi


And it's not new. The Germans were all too eager to pounce on the most significant threat to their bottom line in a long time.

Edit: I am seeing at least one article citing a JPMorgan "upgrade" to $93. I suspect that and the German news spin are the culprit here today. So many analysts are determined to drive this stock down with baseless analysis, it's sad.

- - - Updated - - -

tesla is looking awful today, yet again i may say.
couple of weeks now till q3 results and it's going to be very long two weeks.

With respect, I think this type of commentary belongs in the Short Term Social Chat thread. This is not analysis that benefits others, it is more conversational chatter. Thanks.
 
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