-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
kevin99
Member
I haven't spent the time to figure out why this, why that. However it does feel TSLA is no longer as rock solid as before, prone to sell off without coming back with strength.
The 5% and 10% implied support from the onlookers seems gone. That is something to keep in mind when trading in short term.
Buy and hold is still fine in long term.
The 5% and 10% implied support from the onlookers seems gone. That is something to keep in mind when trading in short term.
Buy and hold is still fine in long term.
RationalOptimist
Member
I appreciate there are lots of people who spend impressive amounts of time exhaustively examining stock graph shapes, trends, channels and the like. Their jargon and commitment is impressive. But I've never seen a convincing piece of evidence that this is anything more than voodoo. You can find a human face in the patterns of the rocks on Mars if you look hard enough. It just doesn't actually mean anything.
Supply. Demand. Based on an ever varying backdrop of information, misinformation, fear, greed ...and in TSLA's case massive reservoirs of customer passion. That, I strongly suspect, is all there is.
Supply. Demand. Based on an ever varying backdrop of information, misinformation, fear, greed ...and in TSLA's case massive reservoirs of customer passion. That, I strongly suspect, is all there is.
Chickenlittle
Banned
the german magazine report reminds me a lot of the autodata report here. registrations were not reliable indicators of deliveries
1. it took tesla six weeks to get paper work to me to allow registration here in virginia. a foreign country may have been more of a hurdle. a six week delay would be half the qtr and skewed the data
2. never adequate explanation here for why autdata so far off
3. are deliveries going by reservation order? or by country priority?
4. customs hold ups?
who knows but i would not jump to conclusions. i would hope tesla does not wait to the cc to answer the question
- - - Updated - - -
in response to rational optimist
but they look so impressive. i have seen statements like if it doesnt drop below 168 than it wont go lower than 168 based on these graphs. how can you argue with that?
1. it took tesla six weeks to get paper work to me to allow registration here in virginia. a foreign country may have been more of a hurdle. a six week delay would be half the qtr and skewed the data
2. never adequate explanation here for why autdata so far off
3. are deliveries going by reservation order? or by country priority?
4. customs hold ups?
who knows but i would not jump to conclusions. i would hope tesla does not wait to the cc to answer the question
- - - Updated - - -
in response to rational optimist
but they look so impressive. i have seen statements like if it doesnt drop below 168 than it wont go lower than 168 based on these graphs. how can you argue with that?
Last edited:
Germany is a big car market, but not for EV's. Was anybody expecting huge sales for Model S in Germany? There is no fiscal support for EV's, because that would hurt the German ICE-car industry). And the unlimited speeding doesn't mix well with EV's either (although more and more autobahn-stretches have speed limits). China is much, much more important for Tesla. If the car does well in Germany, that would be great, but that market is not as important as the movement in the stock price seems to indicate. That is, if the story of lackluster demand is true at all!
Citizen-T
Active Member
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Didn't we see double double bottoms
There was another one around 1:15 PM market time that was a double bounce off 171.5 and now another one where it did a double bounce off 171.5. I was ready to trigger on covering my short if it broke through $171.5, but it didn't so now I'll keep sitting on it hoping for better days to close it. I did close part of it earlier today when it was hovering near no loss, but didn't want to take ca 20% loss now to free up my margin requirements.
Citizen-T
Active Member
perhaps today is simply a combination of things, those mentioned above (article in German magazine, JP Morgan, Tesla looking more like a normal stock that doesn't only go up in leaps...).
I'll add one more possible ingredient. I was looking through the Q3 earnings expectation thread here at TMC this weekend. It seems there's more of a sense that Tesla may have ramped up very nicely, say to 600 cars/week, but not necessarily the 700 cars/week talked about on TMC and even picked up by at least one analyst and several subsequent pieces by conventional media. I really don't have a particular opinion one way or the other where weekly production is (ultimately, either number is very good long term), I'm just suggesting that perhaps there's less conviction about a monster blowout than there was earlier in the month.
fwiw, as far as Germany, I totally agree with the comments that it's really gibberish. There is no evidence that the problem Tesla has in Germany is any different than their problem in Kansas City, that is SUPPLY not demand.
I'll add one more possible ingredient. I was looking through the Q3 earnings expectation thread here at TMC this weekend. It seems there's more of a sense that Tesla may have ramped up very nicely, say to 600 cars/week, but not necessarily the 700 cars/week talked about on TMC and even picked up by at least one analyst and several subsequent pieces by conventional media. I really don't have a particular opinion one way or the other where weekly production is (ultimately, either number is very good long term), I'm just suggesting that perhaps there's less conviction about a monster blowout than there was earlier in the month.
fwiw, as far as Germany, I totally agree with the comments that it's really gibberish. There is no evidence that the problem Tesla has in Germany is any different than their problem in Kansas City, that is SUPPLY not demand.
Chickenlittle
Banned
cant find much on german talk. someone tweeted about the first supercharger in germany location. does anyone have more information?
InTheShadows
Active Member
I don't recall there being any talk of 700/w until after the fire. We were at the ath before any of these numbers started getting thrown around. I'm concerned about my November options but I also can't process in my head why we are at this price point right now. I think it's a great buying opportunity, however since I am still in the process of balancing tsla and solar I haven't been buying at these levels because it's not part of my strategy right now.
Shadows, even though the fire in hindsight was a non-event (in all very likely probability), I think seeing the stock price have a big downward movement effected those who were responding to TSLA emotionally rather than rationally. To me it seems like the increased flow of negative articles continued after the fire was well understood to be a freak accident. Think sharks sniffing some blood in the water.
edit: that would be blood of changing emotions, no change in Tesla's actual business or value.
edit: that would be blood of changing emotions, no change in Tesla's actual business or value.
Last edited:
Well. Call me crazy, but I was buying and feel lucky to get some more shares at $171. I have not done options and feel 'buy and hold' investors should do well. I know this is the 'short term' thread but wanted to add an optimistic note.
andrewt3000
Member
Regarding the down trend today and the negative article in German magazine.
"Tesla bears say quarter after quarter that the company is burning through cash too quickly to build the infrastructure it wants"
Elon Musk said at Stockholders meeting... analysts are overestimating the costs of super chargers. The rent is cheap because they are largely converting existing parking lots... and making them more desirable by drawing potential customers.
I'm curious what the costs are... the solar panels probably allow the energy cost to be near break even. Any other thoughts?
"Tesla bears say quarter after quarter that the company is burning through cash too quickly to build the infrastructure it wants"
Elon Musk said at Stockholders meeting... analysts are overestimating the costs of super chargers. The rent is cheap because they are largely converting existing parking lots... and making them more desirable by drawing potential customers.
I'm curious what the costs are... the solar panels probably allow the energy cost to be near break even. Any other thoughts?
InTheShadows
Active Member
RationalOptimist
Member
I strongly suspect this is biggest single driver of the fall.
Which has upside that it takes away some of the more ridiculous 'whisper numbers'.
Remember, friends, there is no super-solid rational justification why the price should be $180, rather than $120 or $220. The price on any given day is a tradeoff between fervent believers in TSLA for the longterm, and market skeptics who think too much is being priced in. It could easily fall a lot further.
Buy and hold. Short term option gambling really dangerous.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well interestingly enough TSLA closed at $172.6 today. So even though we visited lower the closing price stopped at the parallel channel bottom. Tomorrow will tell a lot what the price will do in the short term then.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
