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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
While it is unusually quiet here today pre market I would like to say something for I usually just observe.
I would like all the key players here, Citizen T, Dave, Kevin, Mario, tesladopt, fluxcap, et al (yes I missed some of you)to know that their posts, opinions, insights etc. are appreciated. Please don't get discouraged and leave, you are appreciated.
Sorry if I wasted anybodies time.

You have nothing to be sorry about. We benefit from the questions, comments, and insights of the newcomers just as much as you benefit from anything we have to say.

I don't like the way that TSLA is behaving right now, but I have to believe that the sellers are getting tired. I think we've lost institutional and momo trader support at this point. Institutions are probably waiting for the quarterly report so that they can re-assess the valuation, and momo traders are probably waiting for the institutions.

Without this support, there aren't enough buyers to offset the huge losses we are taking on things like the fire, debt ceiling, and downgrades. We need to get some momentum going again if we want to recapture the ATH. Right now the 50 day moving average seems to be where the buyers are (about $169.40 today) but they haven't done a spectacular job of holding their ground (i.e. I don't know that there are a lot of them). If we lose the 50 day, I'm not sure where the next group of buyers are hanging out.

Sorry I don't have something more positive to say. Just keep in mind that we need to see $169.40 defended today. If you have cash left, I'd probably sit today out and let things play out a little more.
 

mulder1231

Active Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,828
10,641
San Diego
You have nothing to be sorry about. We benefit from the questions, comments, and insights of the newcomers just as much as you benefit from anything we have to say.

Thanks Citizen-T. I'll go back to observing and hope for a good day.

Citizen is one of the few guys still hanging out here, most seem to have left. I used to enjoy having to read a page or 4 pre-market and be all up to date on news, sentiment, and general opinion, ready for the day. Today: not even one page filled between last closing and open. Sad...:mad:
 
I think it's also the lack of real news. The only news I saw in IB news thread for TSLA is that the VW chief is startled by Tesla fire and claims that VW batteries are safe from fire (riiight...)

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/VM+Chief+Winterkorn+Startled+at+Recent+Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Model+S+Fire%3B+Says+VW+Batteries+Safe/8801341.html

- - - Updated - - -

But we should probably expect a rollercoaster tomorrow with the PR event of opening London store + press release of Munich details on German priority and SC rollout etc.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
There just isn't a lot to say right now. We are in a pre-earnings void. The main discussion we need to have right now is around expectations for the Q3 report. There is a separate thread for that so, some contributors are spending more time over there. Others (like Sleepy who now only owns one share of TSLA) have turned their attention to solar and are therefore very active on the Alternative Energy thread.

And I suspect some (like luv2b) are on a private island somewhere soaking in the sun and enjoying their profits.
 

aznt1217

Active Member
Aug 27, 2012
2,560
1,870
New York, NY
There just isn't a lot to say right now. We are in a pre-earnings void. The main discussion we need to have right now is around expectations for the Q3 report. There is a separate thread for that so, some contributors are spending more time over there. Others (like Sleepy who now only owns one share of TSLA) have turned their attention to solar and are therefore very active on the Alternative Energy thread.

And I suspect some (like luv2b) are on a private island somewhere soaking in the sun and enjoying their profits.

While I am seriously hating the way my options are playing out right now (and I'm sure many of us are quietly hurting), I think we've been here long enough where we know that shares have surprised us in the way they acted before (on the way up and on the way down). It's probably not super wise to be holding my options this long, but I believe in a Q3 beat and a nice outlook/projections. We've already heard some short term drivers such as a Clay Model X being completed in Q4, which leads me to my original prediction of Elon whipping out a Beta Model X at 2013 FY.

To exacerbate things further, the market went on a serious run the past few weeks and I think people are hitting the brakes and re-assessing not just TSLA, but everything. It's also that time where we'll get a slew of earnings report (big one is Apple next week) and a bunch of macro economic data. Just look at the other equities experiencing absolutely ridiculous movements. If one had bought put options on NFLX 2 days ago you would've made something north of 8000%, and after earnings that stock nearly tapped $400.
 
Here are some random thoughts on the board and the stock...

1. I think all the chatter here about what's allowable on the board and what's not, and the splitting of threads, has quieted the voices and diversity of the stock talk.

2. As some of the more experienced traders expressed, spirits seemed a bit frothy at times with newbie traders mistaking speculation for investing, lucky speculators mistaking luck for skill, and some momentum traders thinking it would always go up because that what it had done in the past. A calming of those spirits is probably a good thing in the long run.

3. Some folks were probably overextended on options or margin, and got caught by the fire, downgrades and downward pressure caused by the gov't shutdown. It doesn't feel good to lose real money. Someone previously posted that stocks move in the direction that causes the greatest pain to the most people. There's some truth to that. Things correct. Sentiment is cyclical.

4. Aside from the fire, there hasn't been a lot of news out of Tesla lately (Germany doesn't count as big news IMHO), which makes the stock more beholden to technical factors and fear. If you think about it, it's really silly for people to buy or sell based on technical factors alone, except of course for the reason that other people do which means *it is* a viable strategy for some pros, sometimes. That said, no stock has a future on technical factors alone. In the long run, fundamentals are what matter. In the absence of news, and with the momentum weakened for reasons mentioned above, we're in more of a drifting mode now. We're more vulnerable to the constant hating and naysaying of shorts and Seeking Alphas of the world which may well flush out more traders, and some nervous or over-extended longs. To the extent weaker hands' shares are being picked up by longer term holders (dare I say value buyers?), it'll augur well for the future. I'd rather see more TSLA shares in the hands of long term longs than short term traders.

5. Put things in perspective. The stock is up massively over the last six months. We're only off about 12% from the all time highs. The long term trend is still solid. Until the evidence says otherwise, the company is still firing all eight proverbial ICE-free cylinder-free cylinders. If I had extra cash, I'd be accumulating shares or long term calls on any continued weakness.

Earnings can't come soon enough because earnings will refocus investors on what matters most, and that's the fundamentals of competitive advantage, production, shipments and execution.

Good luck all!
 

marvinat0rz

Member
May 10, 2013
350
674
Norway
There are plenty of momentum stocks moving similarly to Tesla today. So in that regard, we are in the same boat as others. And all else considered, we aren't really that far off the all-time high. So I don't think this is really such a big catastrophe unless you have done very bullish options plays. (Sold out of mine at a 20% loss today). Nothing has changed about the long-term story, although the sentiment isn't as bullish as it was three weeks ago.

So I guess if you're super paranoid, it might be good to just set a stop-loss order and be done with it, because if sentiment remains bad the stock could concievably not be above the current level for a long time even if the long-term story plays out. But this is really no different than at any other point after May. If you're in the stock market, you need to be able to stay in the red for years at a time. It's just how things work :/
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
I'm not getting warm fuzzies about Q3's earning report. Or, I should say, about the impact. We've been basically flat if you look back 2 months. Look back any less than that and TSLA has been on a slow decline. I've looked back several quarters and I don't see anything that looks like this kind of pre-earnings apathy/malaise.

I'm definitely in a world of hurt on the options. About 2 months ago when the flat line started, I had just converted 30-40% of my shares into options for the first time ever. Those have a very real likelihood of near 100% loss.
 

aznt1217

Active Member
Aug 27, 2012
2,560
1,870
New York, NY
Citizen, are you still holding on to your Nov 200's? I'm debating whether or not to cut my losses and roll these over into December. I'm trying to take into account time decay because these expire a week after the Q3 ER, hmmm.. so it literally is a bet on the call. What are your thoughts?
 

AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,357
15,647
Delaware
Here are some random thoughts on the board and the stock...

1. I think all the chatter here about what's allowable on the board and what's not, and the splitting of threads, has quieted the voices and diversity of the stock talk.

2. As some of the more experienced traders expressed, spirits seemed a bit frothy at times with newbie traders mistaking speculation for investing, lucky speculators mistaking luck for skill, and some momentum traders thinking it would always go up because that what it had done in the past. A calming of those spirits is probably a good thing in the long run.

3. Some folks were probably overextended on options or margin, and got caught by the fire, downgrades and downward pressure caused by the gov't shutdown. It doesn't feel good to lose real money. Someone previously posted that stocks move in the direction that causes the greatest pain to the most people. There's some truth to that. Things correct. Sentiment is cyclical.

4. Aside from the fire, there hasn't been a lot of news out of Tesla lately (Germany doesn't count as big news IMHO), which makes the stock more beholden to technical factors and fear. If you think about it, it's really silly for people to buy or sell based on technical factors alone, except of course for the reason that other people do which means *it is* a viable strategy for some pros, sometimes. That said, no stock has a future on technical factors alone. In the long run, fundamentals are what matter. In the absence of news, and with the momentum weakened for reasons mentioned above, we're in more of a drifting mode now. We're more vulnerable to the constant hating and naysaying of shorts and Seeking Alphas of the world which may well flush out more traders, and some nervous or over-extended longs. To the extent weaker hands' shares are being picked up by longer term holders (dare I say value buyers?), it'll augur well for the future. I'd rather see more TSLA shares in the hands of long term longs than short term traders.

5. Put things in perspective. The stock is up massively over the last six months. We're only off about 12% from the all time highs. The long term trend is still solid. Until the evidence says otherwise, the company is still firing all eight proverbial ICE-free cylinder-free cylinders. If I had extra cash, I'd be accumulating shares or long term calls on any continued weakness.

Earnings can't come soon enough because earnings will refocus investors on what matters most, and that's the fundamentals of competitive advantage, production, shipments and execution.

Good luck all!

Excellent post. I do not consider myself wealthy, and like many here, it is not fun to watch your portfolio in the red, especially when we had many days in the green. However, I am buying today with money that I had earmarked for solar stocks. A number of the previously disruptive companies, Apple, Amazon, etc. have gone through some wild negative swings on their way to success.
I still believe in the TM story. Stay the course. We have had nothing but no news or negative news over the past month and we are down less than 15% from ATH.

Good Luck everyone. I am happy to be part of this forum.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
Citizen, are you still holding on to your Nov 200's? I'm debating whether or not to cut my losses and roll these over into December. I'm trying to take into account time decay because these expire a week after the Q3 ER, hmmm.. so it literally is a bet on the call. What are your thoughts?

I own both Nov and Dec. The Nov have been getting killed, but I've been averaging down. I had plenty of cash available and wanted more anyway, but now I'm running low. I'll take one last shot at averaging down the Nov calls if we touch $161, but then I'm out of cash.
 

destroid

Member
Jun 21, 2013
21
0
NH
The long term fundamentals of Tesla have not changed and the announcement in Germany is encouraging because if they were struggling in the US they would not be pushing hard in a new and difficult market.

Short term it is discouraging, but look at the overall market. Tesla seems to be more correlated with the indexes than earlier in the year. I'm sure many of us were setting up our earnings/year end plays at what looked like the bottom(s) in October. This is exceptional for Tesla but is another buying opportunity if you have available cash or just another dip that will have to be ridden out until at least earnings.
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
906
926
NoVA
That was a pretty decent bounce off of the $162 and up to near $165 as I'm typing. I think what's happening right now is a correction to all these stocks that were increasing in value greatly, which TSLA is one of them for the short term. From the looks of things, a lot of stocks are getting corrections across the board and their charts show similar movements. I'm in Facebook and Yelp. They went up nicely and are now down a chunk. The past couple of days (including today) is a terrible hit to the bullish investors.

As for the quietness of this thread, I can see that due to the warnings and rantings of trying to keep this thread to stick to its core, it has cut out a lot of noise chatter. I think it's for the better and makes everybody think before posting irrelevant posts anymore.
 

Citizen-T

Active Member
Aug 25, 2011
2,443
107
Raleigh, NC
Does anyone have access to the Merrill report? If so please let us know what is says, a link would be much appreciated

The gist of the report seems to be that they think the company is overvalued and they are maintaining their $45 price target. For those that are new to the stock, BofA Merrill Lynch has been just about the worst performing analyst in the history of the world ever when it comes to TSLA. I doubt anyone is taking this seriously, it just attracting the day traders.
 
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