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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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maekuz

Member
Jun 12, 2013
190
7
Germany
Tesla sent out the pr regarding germany:
CORRECTION - Tesla Motors Inc: Tesla Motors gibt wichtige Entwicklungen für den | Pressemitteilung Tesla Motors Europe
We know everything already from Elons talk in munic but one thing:
"Tesla emphasizes, that the network will be accessible to all car makers, that bring a car to the market, that can charge at 135kW."

Elon hinted at that earlier, but it's the first time, that Tesla states clearly that other car makers can access their network.
I think it's a brilliant move. No one can accuse Tesla of builöing a network just for themselves. And if any car company indeed uses the network Tesla will make some nice profit from it.

They might have to do it because of antitrust laws (one could argue Tesla is holding a dominant market share in charging stations - once they are up and running, that is), but its a nice move nevertheless.
 
I can't believe it, a thoroughly bullish article of Tesla on Seeking Alpha :D

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): 5 Clues Tesla Will Shock The Street - Seeking Alpha

And their analysis of the prior earnings call and the implications are quite enlightening and might indeed promise a strong rally if that all comes together for the Q3 ER.

Edit: changed bull to bullish in case someone mistakes it for BS ;)
 

maekuz

Member
Jun 12, 2013
190
7
Germany
Best short-term indicator that I know of is the number of shares available to short at Interactive Brokers. Was hoovering around 800K all day yesterday. Just checked and it's now at 400K. Pretty big move.

For those that haven't been following that metric. When it gets below 100K that is squeeze time. When 40M shares were short, IB typically had 0-20K shares available to borrow.
 

hoang51

Member
Aug 22, 2013
900
900
NoVA
Where do people see TSLA trading at pre-earnings (say next Friday)? If we close above $170 today, and then have another green candle tomorrow, could we see a rally back into the mid $180s by next friday or the following monday?

Probably between $170 and $180. But it'll depend if there are analyst reports released that could tank the stock (Goldman Sachs) or rocket the stock up (Andrea James) that would put it out of the aforementioned range. For instance, see this blog post here that it looks like TSLA is range bound: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...e-good-and-the-bad/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
 
Probably between $170 and $180. But it'll depend if there are analyst reports released that could tank the stock (Goldman Sachs) or rocket the stock up (Andrea James) that would put it out of the aforementioned range. For instance, see this blog post here that it looks like TSLA is range bound: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...e-good-and-the-bad/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Andrea James has had what about a $5 to $8 max pop effect, so yeah that could work, but I hope she waits till later next week in case a downgrade come before then. Am now hopeful TSLA will be $175 to $185 range pre-earnings barring no other storms (god we've had enough over the past several weeks). Andrea could up her target to $225 or $250 based on the Munich conference.

- - - Updated - - -

So that China car was delivered from the Tesla Hong Kong store. That is different from someone buying in Ca and having it shipped. That would mean Tesla Hong Kong has started to deliver cars. Wondering if that is the reason for today's up day. Also wondering if that $410K price includes those limo seats... I posted this in the China section too, but this news that trickled out yesterday may be the reason for the nice bump today..
 
This was discussed I think in the Munich thread. Someone tweeted to Elon if he's visiting Amsterdam while in EU and he replied not this time and then someone tweeted when the London store opens and he tweeted Thursday :) So got to keep Elons tweets at hand. What buggers me though is that I don't get alerts when he tweets in reply to someone, only when he posts something as-is. Got to go and check the twitter app settings...
 
My chart from the end of the day yesterday was off, and I see that now. If the channel is based off the two local all time highs, yesterday's close and today's open are right on trend. I would say the real challenge at this point are going to be the 50d MA and 20d MA. I am also still very warry of whats going to happen after Q3 ER. At this point it could really go either way, mostly because expectations might have gotten unrealistically high.


VL4nUn2E.png
 
Interesting observation on options pricing. In addition to my long shares, I've got two sets of Jan '15s, 140 calls I bought and 200 puts I wrote. Both are in the money right now by about $30, yet the call is about $57 and the put is about $66. By my calculation that means the premium on the puts is 33% higher than premium on the calls.
 
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