Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[joefee]

After hours now >$65 ….. $70 tomorrow ? $100 next week? I’m selling small lots (100) taking profits up this ladder …how sweet it is :love:

 

[v12 to 12v]

Up $9 after hours so far.

 

[ShortSlaver]

This is going to hit $70.00 tomorrow and only rise from there. Once again, patience is the play.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Yep, $0.00 EPS excluding the one-time warrant liability reversal, but including the $68M ZEV credits. So without those you are looking at a $68M GAAP loss. They will have to work hard at those margins and deliver more cars (with lower ASP, both because mix and fewer ZEV credits) just to keep around $0.00 EPS in Q4.

Not to say I am unsatisfied by the earnings or the market reaction, just that you posted that $30M number without even questioning what it's worth.

It's not completely clear to me that ZEV credit demand will fall much. It very much depends on how well other manufacturers sell their EV's. And they have been doing extremely poorly so far. Toyota has moved sales up close to what is needed, but only with massive price reductions. At a glance I am skeptical of the other companies efforts. And the 2015-2017 requirements are almost 4 times the current requirement.

- - - Updated - - -

I should add that manufacturers are now actively lobbying to get the requirement rolled back. However their argument against it (that the market is failing to keep the ZEV market liquid) is being destroyed by Tesla's ability to generate huge numbers of credits.

 

[JRP3]

Musk just said no ZEV credit by Q4.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

It's not completely clear to me that ZEV credit demand will fall much. It very much depends on how well other manufacturers sell their EV's. And they have been doing extremely poorly so far. Toyota has moved sales up close to what is needed, but only with massive price reductions. At a glance I am skeptical of the other companies efforts. And the 2015-2017 requirements are almost 4 times the current requirement.

- - - Updated - - -

I should add that manufacturers are now actively lobbying to get the requirement rolled back. However their argument against it (that the market is failing to keep the ZEV market liquid) is being destroyed by Tesla's ability to generate huge numbers of credits.

From the shareholder letter: "Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits sold to other automakers amounted to approximately $68 million or 12% of revenues. We expect this to decline significantly in future quarters, as ZEV credits will only apply to about 1/6 of worldwide deliveries, versus roughlyhalf of US deliveries, and the price per credit has declined."

Live from Elon: big decline in Q2, even bigger from Q2 to Q3. Not counting on any ZEV at all in Q4.

 

[charliestyr]

Any idea why those (mine) comments use only half of the width of the page?

It's probably the Yahoo stock ticker, maybe that's not showing up on your browser but the formatting is allocating the space for it. Here's how it looks on mine.

edit: you see it now? haha my reply is unnecessary and mysterious now.


Side note... approaching $70 FAST...

 

[Enadler]

Guys after hours $69.65 1.3million shares!

 

[dmckinstry]

Looks like I missed my entry point!!! I am still long but was hoping to add to my position! It looks like i will have to keep waiting!

I though I might have blown it. My limit for 100 shares this a.m. was at $56.05. I lost about $26 during the day. Sob!!!

The last after hours purchase I just saw (2:52 p.m. PDT) was $68.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

It's probably the Yahoo stock ticker, maybe that's not showing up on your browser but the formatting is allocating the space for it. Here's how it looks on mine.

View attachment 21719

edit: you see it now? haha my reply is unnecessary and mysterious now.


Side note... approaching $70 FAST...

Thanks, was annoying. I use an add block, maybe I should disable it on TMC

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

15k USA deliveries 2012, implies current reservation rate of ~31/day (quickie estimate). Credible?

 

[ckessel]

Side note... approaching $70 FAST...

Holy crap Batman! I'm going seriously have to think about what stair step increments to sell at if the stock continues to rise tomorrow.

 

[raymond]

OK, it's almost midnight here - I can finally go to bed... AT $70.00!!! YAY!

 

[Norbert]

Side note... approaching $70 FAST...

There it goes... $70 !!!

 

[JRP3]

Just broke $70! Feeling very squeezey :biggrin:

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Elon: Tesla expects saturating ZEV credits demand in Q3. I insist as the formulation in the letter could lead to believe they do not count on it or something else. Now it sounds super-clear, even for me, a non-native speaker.

 

[ShortSlaver]

72!!!!!

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

From the shareholder letter: "Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits sold to other automakers amounted to approximately $68 million or 12% of revenues. We expect this to decline significantly in future quarters, as ZEV credits will only apply to about 1/6 of worldwide deliveries, versus roughlyhalf of US deliveries, and the price per credit has declined."

Live from Elon: big decline in Q2, even bigger from Q2 to Q3. Not counting on any ZEV at all in Q4.

They don't have much more clue than we do. It is dependent on how well other manufacturers do on selling EV's. They are operating at a severe deficit right now, so ZEV's disappearing requires them to sell a lot more than they have been.

 

[Enadler]

$72 and climbing

 

[ShortSlaver]

$73!!!!