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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Well I am still traveling and they are gone since last time I pay attention few days.

Quite a drastic reversal of sentiment in Oct. Back then when tsla was at 190-185, the bullish sentiment is going for above 210 for sure. I was really concerning on the downside of earning not impressive enough maintain the price. I guess those options all goes down to the toilet.

Now we are at 160, I really think it create some upside potential. Consider the rich premium in the Nov2 weekly option, there is $12 premium at the money. If you the direction right for another $8, that is $20 gain for shorting in the money option. I am long so I will sell in the money put.

Just to be complete. Not to enourage to play with in the money option as they are more risky than out of thr money or at the money ones. If you are not confident, then the $12 premium is the margin of error in case you were wrong.
 
nope. algros saw a double bottom. that is all. it will fall again. (IMO)

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So as well as sit here and watch the NASDAQ decline waiting for the Fed report in 10min i had a thought. How could the Fed Report about the taper be anything but positive at this point? this market pullback seems quite ridiculous and over done. Good buying opportunity for some Weekly Options to pop after the FED? Anyone got an opinion on that?

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Well so much for that, haha.
 
nope. algros saw a double bottom. that is all. it will fall again. (IMO)

- - - Updated - - -

So as well as sit here and watch the NASDAQ decline waiting for the Fed report in 10min i had a thought. How could the Fed Report about the taper be anything but positive at this point? this market pullback seems quite ridiculous and over done. Good buying opportunity for some Weekly Options to pop after the FED? Anyone got an opinion on that?

- - - Updated - - -

Well so much for that, haha.

while all of these 'momentum' stocks are falling doing to some disappointment somewhere within their respective earnings (ie. poor guidance, CEO saying stock is a bubble, etc.) the momentum traders are hurting and in need of a winner to pile into and fulfill their momentum trading addictions. If TSLA can blow out earnings I'm thinking it could become THE anointed momentum stock and go up fast to new ATHs and beyond within days of Earnings.
This is my prediction.
 
Below is an article published today in my TD Ameritrade account about a law firm considering a lawsuit against Tesla Motors regarding claims of safety before the car fires. Supposedly they want to represent shareholders, but the actual effect may be more of a benefit for short sellers. Following the article is my response to the law firm. Other shareholders here may want to consider sending a similar email to the law firm at [email protected] .
____________________________

SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims on Behalf of Investors of Tesla Motors, Inc. -- TSLA
11:32a ET October 30, 2013 (GlobeNewswire)
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Tesla Motors, Inc. ("Tesla"). Such investors are advised to contact Robert S. Willoughby at [email protected] or 888-476-6529, ext. 237.
The investigation concerns whether Tesla and certain of its officers and/or directors have violated Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In an August 19, 2013 press release, Tesla touted its Model S as having achieved the "best safety rating of any car ever tested" by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ("NHTSA"). On October 2, 2013, an analyst downgraded Tesla due to "execution risk." On October 17, 2013 in Merida, Mexico, a Model S sped into a roundabout, crashed through a concrete wall and hit a tree. The driver fled the scene before the car went up in flames. The U.S. automotive Web site Jalopnik reported the story Monday, citing the Mexican newspaper Progreso Hoy.
It was the second time this month that a Model S - (Tesla's only vehicle on the market) was in a fiery crash. On October 2, 2013, a Model S burned after hitting road debris in Kent, Washington.
On this news, shares of Tesla fell 4 percent to close at $162.86 on October 28, 2013. The shares have fallen 16 percent since the October 2 crash.
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP, with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego and Florida, is acknowledged as one of the premier firms in the areas of corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation. Founded by the late Abraham L. Pomerantz, known as the dean of the class action bar, the Pomerantz Firm pioneered the field of securities class actions. Today, more than 70 years later, the Pomerantz Firm continues in the tradition he established, fighting for the rights of the victims of securities fraud, breaches of fiduciary duty, and corporate misconduct. The Firm has recovered numerous multimillion-dollar damages awards on behalf of class members. See Pomerantz Law | Front.
C:\Users\Curt\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image002.gif

CONTACT: Robert S. Willoughby
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP
[email protected]

_________________________________

Dear PGHDG:

I’m a Tesla Motors shareholder. You’ve got to be kidding regarding your investigation of the company. Stop now. Any potential gains from a lawsuit would be miniscule compared to share price drops due to publication of your intentions. You actually would be helping the short sellers and hurting the shareholders. If your ulterior motive is actually to aid the former, then we shareholders should be suing you.

There are hundreds of car fires in the US every day. Many involve death or severe injury. The Tesla fires were contained to the front of the batteries due to a safety design that compartmentalized the batteries. There were no injuries. Both drivers still love the Model S and are anxious to get replacements.

The Tesla fires were the result of unusual accidents, not spontaneous as in the case of a Fisker car. The first one involved running over a truck fender that jackknifed forcing puncture with a force of 25 tons. The NHTSA says it’s not worth further investigation since there was no safety defect. The second involved a drunk who ran the car at high speed into a wall.

The fact that the fires were freakish accidents, contained and the drivers were unhurt screams that the Model S is well designed for safety and is indeed the world’s safest car. If any party needs to be investigated and considered for a lawsuit, it is your firm.

Regards,
Curt Renz
 
Last edited:
Todays huge news should basically address two main concerns of analysts:

1. That battery supply is not an issue in Teslas growth. Tesla has acquired supply for ~300-350k Model S/X cars for the next 4 years AND is in discussions with Samsung and LG to extend that even further.
2. There is demand. Tesla wouldn't be ramping up and securing production capacity if there wouldn't be the demand for that many cars. They are seeing the reservation numbers, we aren't so they know this.

Yet the stock tumbles after an initial stint up. This looks really really bad. And it's tumbling on low volume meaning that it's not big investors jumping in it's small ones who buy/sell the price down. I can understand that the ER is just around the corner, but I am thoroughly rattled that the stock reacted in such a way to such major news. I'm no longer 100% certain that there will be a pop even on bullish ER results as it's hard to understand where the money is that is supposed to rally the stock. We've seen a great runup and major financers are taking profits or reducing the position to balance the portfolio, which leads me to wonder who are going to be the people who provide us the pop that moves us forward. The only real catalyst I can see is a blowout quarter followed by some pop that triggers another short squeeze giving us the buyers from all the sellers right now.
 
Below is an article published today in my TD Ameritrade account about a law firm considering a lawsuit against Tesla Motors regarding claims of safety before the car fires. Supposedly they want to represent shareholders, but the actual effect may be more of a benefit for short sellers. Following the article is my response to the law firm. Other shareholders here may want to consider sending a similar email to the law firm at [email protected] .
____________________________

SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims on Behalf of Investors of Tesla Motors, Inc. -- TSLA
11:32a ET October 30, 2013 (GlobeNewswire)
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Tesla Motors, Inc. ("Tesla"). Such investors are advised to contact Robert S. Willoughby at [email protected] or 888-476-6529, ext. 237.
The investigation concerns whether Tesla and certain of its officers and/or directors have violated Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In an August 19, 2013 press release, Tesla touted its Model S as having achieved the "best safety rating of any car ever tested" by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ("NHTSA"). On October 2, 2013, an analyst downgraded Tesla due to "execution risk." On October 17, 2013 in Merida, Mexico, a Model S sped into a roundabout, crashed through a concrete wall and hit a tree. The driver fled the scene before the car went up in flames. The U.S. automotive Web site Jalopnik reported the story Monday, citing the Mexican newspaper Progreso Hoy.
It was the second time this month that a Model S - (Tesla's only vehicle on the market) was in a fiery crash. On October 2, 2013, a Model S burned after hitting road debris in Kent, Washington.
On this news, shares of Tesla fell 4 percent to close at $162.86 on October 28, 2013. The shares have fallen 16 percent since the October 2 crash.
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP, with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego and Florida, is acknowledged as one of the premier firms in the areas of corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation. Founded by the late Abraham L. Pomerantz, known as the dean of the class action bar, the Pomerantz Firm pioneered the field of securities class actions. Today, more than 70 years later, the Pomerantz Firm continues in the tradition he established, fighting for the rights of the victims of securities fraud, breaches of fiduciary duty, and corporate misconduct. The Firm has recovered numerous multimillion-dollar damages awards on behalf of class members. See Pomerantz Law | Front.
C:\Users\Curt\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image002.gif

CONTACT: Robert S. Willoughby
Pomerantz Grossman Hufford Dahlstrom & Gross LLP
[email protected]

_________________________________

Dear PGHDG:

I’m a Tesla Motors shareholder. You’ve got to be kidding regarding your investigation of the company. Stop now. Any potential gains from a lawsuit would be miniscule compared to share price drops due to publication of your intentions. You actually would be helping the short sellers and hurting the shareholders. If your ulterior motive is actually to aid the former, then we shareholders should be suing you.

There are hundreds of car fires in the US every day. Many involve death or severe injury. The Tesla fires were contained to the front of the batteries due to a safety design that compartmentalized the batteries. There were no injuries. Both drivers still love the Model S and are anxious to get replacements.

The Tesla fires were the result of unusual accidents, not spontaneous as in the case of a Fisker car. The first one involved running over a truck fender that jackknifed forcing puncture with a force of 25 tons. The NHTSA says it’s not worth further investigation since there was no safety defect. The second involved a drunk who ran the car at high speed into a wall.

The fact that the fires were freakish accidents, contained and the drivers were unhurt screams that the Model S is well designed for safety and is indeed the world’s safest car. If any party needs to be investigated and considered for a lawsuit, it is your firm.

Regards,
Curt Renz

That is awesome Curt. They are not going to take your letter well, but they deserved it.
 
Todays huge news should basically address two main concerns of analysts:

1. That battery supply is not an issue in Teslas growth. Tesla has acquired supply for ~300-350k Model S/X cars for the next 4 years AND is in discussions with Samsung and LG to extend that even further.
2. There is demand. Tesla wouldn't be ramping up and securing production capacity if there wouldn't be the demand for that many cars. They are seeing the reservation numbers, we aren't so they know this.

Yet the stock tumbles after an initial stint up. This looks really really bad. And it's tumbling on low volume meaning that it's not big investors jumping in it's small ones who buy/sell the price down. I can understand that the ER is just around the corner, but I am thoroughly rattled that the stock reacted in such a way to such major news. I'm no longer 100% certain that there will be a pop even on bullish ER results as it's hard to understand where the money is that is supposed to rally the stock. We've seen a great runup and major financers are taking profits or reducing the position to balance the portfolio, which leads me to wonder who are going to be the people who provide us the pop that moves us forward. The only real catalyst I can see is a blowout quarter followed by some pop that triggers another short squeeze giving us the buyers from all the sellers right now.

I am not too concerned with near term price fluctuations. Fundamentals today got better: The battery deal is HUGE. Elon said in Germany he wants to reduce the wait time for a car to 4 weeks. NOBODY likes to wait 2 to 3 months for a car. To meet 4 weeks and to meet growing demand for Model S & X over the next 3 years, he's gotto have a deal with Samsung/ LG and/or sign additional contracts with Panasonic in the medium term.
 
I am not too concerned with near term price fluctuations. Fundamentals today got better: The battery deal is HUGE. Elon said in Germany he wants to reduce the wait time for a car to 4 weeks. NOBODY likes to wait 2 to 3 months for a car. To meet 4 weeks and to meet growing demand for Model S & X over the next 3 years, he's gotto have a deal with Samsung/ LG and/or sign additional contracts with Panasonic in the medium term.

Exactly right! One of the most important fundamental metrics that we have all been having a meaning about just got a serious real-world confirmation! Yes I know this is the short term price thread, and it kind of surprises me that it didn't move the stock today. Two ways to read that I guess: 1) everyone is on the fence before next week or 2) it was already priced in.
 
Looks like we are getting a little boost off of FB in AH (up 1%) - maybe tomorrow won't be that bad? Please? This business of being up in premarket only to get smacked down within the first hour of trading is really getting old!

Additionally, I am rather new to TA, but does a H&S pattern really have any validity this close to a major catalyst (earnings)? I would tend to say no given that, as stated, most bets have already been placed, but I am interested to hear what some of you chartists have to say about this...
How to trade Tesla at a key level: Pro
 
Looks like we are getting a little boost off of FB in AH (up 1%) - maybe tomorrow won't be that bad? Please? This business of being up in premarket only to get smacked down within the first hour of trading is really getting old!

Additionally, I am rather new to TA, but does a H&S pattern really have any validity this close to a major catalyst (earnings)? I would tend to say no given that, as stated, most bets have already been placed, but I am interested to hear what some of you chartists have to say about this...
How to trade Tesla at a key level: Pro

Blah I mentioned this yesterday... 3 days to earnings, thats a mighty long time. Anything can happen... If I see another day like yesterday, I'll trade the volatility but at this point almost 95% of my money is fully invested. We just need to hold on a bit longer for Elon to do what he does best and give us another 15%+ move up.
 
Looks like we are getting a little boost off of FB in AH (up 1%) - maybe tomorrow won't be that bad? Please? This business of being up in premarket only to get smacked down within the first hour of trading is really getting old!

Additionally, I am rather new to TA, but does a H&S pattern really have any validity this close to a major catalyst (earnings)? I would tend to say no given that, as stated, most bets have already been placed, but I am interested to hear what some of you chartists have to say about this...
How to trade Tesla at a key level: Pro

Meh. If enough people believe it it will be a self fullfilling prophecy, right? Just like the other video clip from earlier today when John Bollinger (yes, the actual inventor of "the Bollingner bands" analysis) comes on CNBC and points to the so called "typical three tops and then decline pattern" after the drop has happened! I'm thinking "OK, did he act on that and go short at 185-190?" I don't think so. I think he has made more money from promoting his "bands" then he ever made from trading based on them. It really easy to point to a theory after you already have the facts in hand. TA is snake oil science.
 
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