Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Robert.Boston]

The delay in the Model X is concerning for two reasons: first, it shifts an additional source of revenue out by nearly 12 months; second, it signals that the Gen III will be even further out. Designing a new car is hard, as evidenced by this delay, even when you're building a new chassis atop an existing skateboard.

 

[Curt Renz]

The delay in the Model X is concerning for two reasons: first, it shifts an additional source of revenue out by nearly 12 months; second, it signals that the Gen III will be even further out.

That’s essentially true, Robert, but I’m not overly concerned. Right now the problem is to build Model S’s quickly enough to satisfy demand in the US and globally without long waits for customers. Until Tesla can do that, other projects really should be delayed. In fact quicker introduction of new models may even cannibalize potential Model S sales for this year and next.

I also suspect that Tesla is waiting for the development of more powerful yet cheaper batteries of the type that JCESR is working on at Argonne. That may be an unspoken reason for delays in new model introductions. If true, Tesla would not likely publicize such a consideration for fear of causing potential Model S purchasers to delay placing orders.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Might Tesla have delayed the Model X to reduce near term costs? If they are planning on releasing variants of the Model S, it might make sense for them to push back the X to allow them to maximize production efficiencies. The current tooling gives them maximum capacity of 50k cars. Global demand for Model S is 30-40k. If other variants are going to be announced, this could mean they anticipate demand from S and S variants will be sufficient to far exceed 2014 expectations/capacity.

Elon Musk says Tesla Model S variants coming next year

I also agree that they might be waiting for more powerful and cheaper batteries, and to possibly have the Supercharge Network fully up and running by then. They seem to have been busy filing patents related to the supercharger. Elon mentioned something about a breakthrough in the Supercharger coming sometime this year. I wonder if this has anything to do with it?
TESLA MOTORS, INC. - Patent applications

 

[Zzzz...]

The delay in the Model X is concerning for two reasons: first, it shifts an additional source of revenue out by nearly 12 months; second, it signals that the Gen III will be even further out. Designing a new car is hard, as evidenced by this delay, even when you're building a new chassis atop an existing skateboard.

Yes, exactly my thoughts.

And you see, starting of X production at the end of 2013 was confirmed at Q2 '12 release. Two quarters later X was delayed for a whole year! Why? And we are talking about same platform/drivetrain. Ok, drivetraine would need some modifications. Plus new glider - but even glider is not that much different. And Tesla had one year and a half to make modifications. But they decided they need two and a half years... Why???

 

[vfx]

If you are referring to the Argonne National Laboratory and its Joint Center for Energy Storage Research, the president will be visiting there on Friday, March 15 to demonstrate his continued support. Here is a link to the November 30 press conference in which the US energy secretary announced the federal grant of $120 million to the JCESR project for the development of vastly improved batteries: [FONT=&amp]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1xEjxVZ1N4 [/FONT]

Whoops. I thought it was last Friday.

Thanks.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I also suspect that Tesla is waiting for the development of more powerful yet cheaper batteries of the type that JCESR is working on at Argonne. That may be an unspoken reason for delays in new model introductions. If true, Tesla would not likely publicize such a consideration for fear of causing potential Model S purchasers to delay placing orders.

Any technology that is still in the laboratory won't be ready for commercial use in the Model X. Even getting the JCESR into the Gen III would be hurried -- turning a science project into a robust, automotive-grade design that is economic and manufacturable at scale requires significant time and development dollars.

It is interesting to note, though, the Tesla has filed a patent about charging metal-air batteries, which confirms your more general point that Tesla needs better batteries to launch the Gen III. Model X? I think we'll see the same packs as in the Model S.

My speculation about the Model X delay is that there has been more post-launch engineering required to support the Model S than Tesla anticipated.

 

[bonnie]

My speculation about the Model X delay is that there has been more post-launch engineering required to support the Model S than Tesla anticipated.

I concur. I think they've been in a mode of 'all hands on deck' regarding Model S/issues/deliveries, including the Model X engineering team.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today it was announced that TSLA will be among seven stocks added to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index on March 18th. The index tracks the fifty stocks next in line to replace those on the NASDAQ-100 Index. It is re-ranked every quarter.

 

[Mycroft]

LINKY:

The following seven securities will be added to the Index: Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:CDNS), Copart, Inc. (Nasdaq:CPRT), Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq:CREE), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (Nasdaq:GMCR), Informatica Corporation (Nasdaq:INFA), Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq:LECO) and Tesla Motors, Inc. (Nasdaq:TSLA)

 

[kenliles]

jeezz... back well over $39; what's the deal with TSLA today; we need Broder back-

 

[hershey101]

jeezz... back well over $39; what's the deal with TSLA today; we need Broder back-

No we dont! Rooting for a new 52-week high close (prev. high at close was $39.48)

 

[CyberDutchie]

The Model X push back seems to be the TSLA news of the day. I suspect the reason for the stock move upwards is a believe that Tesla is laser focused on fulfilling and further driving up Model S demand, and on cost efficiencies to generate cash and get the company to profitability first, before major R&D expenses require a third offering.

 

[Jkam]

Today it was announced that TSLA will be among seven stocks added to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index on March 18th. The index tracks the fifty stocks next in line to replace those on the NASDAQ-100 Index. It is re-ranked every quarter.

Does that mean mutual funds that mirror the NASDAQ will be picking up Tesla shares?

 

[Curt Renz]

Does that mean mutual funds that mirror the NASDAQ will be picking up Tesla shares?

Except for unusual circumstances, the NASDAQ 100 Index is updated each December. It can be traded through an exchange traded fund. The NASDAQ Q-50 index of those stocks with potential to eventually join the 100 is updated quarterly. Although it was traded through an ETF in the past, that fund no longer exists.

Nevertheless, being added to the Q-50 should be seen as a positive.

 

[Norbert]

New record in shorts:

As of 2/28/2013, almost 32 million! (31,954,742). (Share price then was roughly around $35)

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

 

[palmer_md]

@blake - likely that your prediction will come true. q1 seems all about reaching profitability with making mostly high-end version (85s). But that will change in q2 as they will have to make more of 60 & 40. every 60 or 40 made in Q2 will mean 10 or 20k decline in Top line. Looks like the top line will not be smooth and likely cause pull back.

But profitability is not just about total sales price. It they are making $10,000 on every 85kwh model s sold, there is nothing stopping them from making $10k on very 40 and 60kwh vehicle as well. Price goes down but so does the cost.

 

[ckessel]

One thing about the profitable claim is that it's before warranty work. The specific quote from the most recent blog is:

We have announced that we expect to be slightly profitable in the first quarter of this year (excluding only non-cash option and warrant-related expenses).

Is that fairly typical business speak for how profitability is determined? Nearly every car has due bill items and I'm curious if those fall under warrant-related expenses?

 

[Norbert]

But profitability is not just about total sales price. It they are making $10,000 on every 85kwh model s sold, there is nothing stopping them from making $10k on very 40 and 60kwh vehicle as well. Price goes down but so does the cost.

Also my impression is that they intend to (more or less) continually improve the margin during 2013, reaching 25% at the end, at which point this will of course include the 40 kWh variant in the mix.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The Model X push back seems to be the TSLA news of the day. I suspect the reason for the stock move upwards is a believe that Tesla is laser focused on fulfilling and further driving up Model S demand, and on cost efficiencies to generate cash and get the company to profitability first, before major R&D expenses require a third offering.

I thought that product delays were generally viewed negatively by the broader markets. Who knows

I find it curious though that the stock price has crept back up though. There's really not been any groundbreaking news recently, at least not since the quarterly report. I kind of expected the price to stay between 33 and 37 until the end of the quarter. Then the speculators would get all excited about the pending 1Q 2013 report, driving up the price.

 

[K Hall]

European events were sucessful in generating additional demand for the stock.

You can wait for a correction or just add to your position daily as additional investors and demand establishes a new trading range.