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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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marvinat0rz
Member
everman
Member
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Was the second "fire" really Tesla's fault? A drunk smashed a Model S through a concrete wall and into a tree in Mexico. The driver would probably be dead if he was driving anything else, and instead he was able to jump into another car and get away (apparently abandoning the Model S).
palmer_md
Member
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I use the term because it is true. I bought the market all the way to the bottom from Oct. 2008 through May 2009. Got away like a bandit in the process, even though coworkers called me the "Suicide King".
Buy when others are fearful. Selling today is not a wise move.
Krugerrand
Meow
I think the article is b.s. and it's got nothing to do with me being defensive. Since this is the short term thread, I will agree that in the short-term a segment of the population will react in the expected manner; sensational headlines, over reaction, jumping off the cliff with the rest of the lemmings, failing to engage the brain and otherwise act in a manner I've come accustom to seeing from those with not enough common sense, critical thinking skills, and conviction or belief in something not centered around themselves.
marvinat0rz
Member
This comment might belong more in the Social Chat thread, but I just have to give it to you. Kudos for earning such an awesome nickname. I think we need a bit of perspective in order to cheer up today.
From BJ's 'The Intelligent Investor':
"Imagine that in some private business you own a small share that cost you $1,000. One of your partners, named Mr. Market, is very obliging indeed. Every day he tells you what he thinks your interest is worth and furthermore offers either to buy you out or to sell you an additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. Often, on the other hand, Mr. Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly.
"If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr. Market's daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000 interest in the enterprise? Only in case you agree with him, or in case you want to trade with him. You may be happy to sell out to him when he quotes you a ridiculously high price, and equally happy to buy from him when his price is low. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to form your own ideas of the value of your holdings, based on full reports from the company about its operations and financial position.
"The true investor is in that very position when he owns a listed common stock. He can take advantage of the daily market price or leave it alone, as dictated by his own judgment and inclination. He must take cognizance of important price movements, for otherwise his judgment will have nothing to work on. Conceivably they may give him a warning signal which he will do well to heed—this in plain English means that he is to sell his shares because the price has gone down, foreboding worse things to come. In our view such signals are misleading at least as often as they are helpful. Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies."
Indeed a well-thought article.
Personally, while I remain confident enough in the design of this car to continue with my plans to order my Model S in December, I did exactly what you did today. I sold my common shares because I recognize this as a significant "pivot moment" with repercussions that will not be solved overnight. They may in fact be solved in a week or two, but not overnight. So I preserved capital and will watch this like a hawk. As I have done for the roughly 10 years I have been following the company.
And I will buy back in when I feel the dust has settled, because this is still a $500 stock in 3-5 years.
The article is well written, but doesn't say anything new about the stock or the company. Also, it was only published 30 minutes before you posted it lol
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You think me write well?
The perspective is the one I, as well as others, have been preaching all day.
I clicked on the article when it appeared on this vary site, in the yahoo widget. I'm just fast, very fast.
Alright guys, just posted a megapost titled Why Tesla's 3rd fire is not the end of the world.
Hope it helps ease the anxiety.
Hope it helps ease the anxiety.
After reading through the last ten pages, I'm glad I found this post. If you really want to be a good investor, you have to take a step back from everything. If you're trading your retirement account and you retire in 4 months, you're a fool. Period. But, if you say you're in it for the long term and you really believe this company has a great moat, no threat of competition, and the best CEO in the world, like most of us do, then dollar cost average. I get that people have real money on the line but you don't win by freaking out and selling at the first sight of non 52-week highs.
I rode TSLA from $32 to $163 and have been waiting patiently for the dip to buy back in. Good investors understand that a loss is only realized when you make it realized.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
This is a very interesting perfect storm. When 1 or two accident happens it is just an anomaly. When three things happens in a row. It is usually man made. That has been my philosophy.
Bad news is, $141 got broken. The next level of support is the confluence between 50% fib retracement level and the $124 note conversion price. If this one doesn't hold, then we are back at the $94 public offering price. I think Elon and Tesla wanted to tone down the share price, but I do not think they have experience in how to guide the price lower and hence created a really bad drop. At this point, there are no other TA levels because from $94, it was a straight run up with little hiccups.
That said, there's something that bothered me on the conference call. Elon's mood isn't very good. Felt like he got slapped by some big money. Also, he mentioned that the 1% part supply problem is in the battery... AND something else. Did anyone else hear that part as well? There are other 1% part that is causing the supply constraints and Elon has never mentioned what they are yet.
Bad news is, $141 got broken. The next level of support is the confluence between 50% fib retracement level and the $124 note conversion price. If this one doesn't hold, then we are back at the $94 public offering price. I think Elon and Tesla wanted to tone down the share price, but I do not think they have experience in how to guide the price lower and hence created a really bad drop. At this point, there are no other TA levels because from $94, it was a straight run up with little hiccups.
That said, there's something that bothered me on the conference call. Elon's mood isn't very good. Felt like he got slapped by some big money. Also, he mentioned that the 1% part supply problem is in the battery... AND something else. Did anyone else hear that part as well? There are other 1% part that is causing the supply constraints and Elon has never mentioned what they are yet.
I know we are under 141 now but i would put that on the Markets shoulders, we hit it and bounced off it early morning and the NASDAQ just kept crashing the rest of the day. If the market is happy tomorrow i am sure we will be back at $145. (we were on our way there after the morning bounce off of 141 but then the market kept taking and took TSLA down)
(i currently hold no stake in TSLA and will wait until some stability is found)
(i currently hold no stake in TSLA and will wait until some stability is found)
MartinAustin
Active Member
EXACTLY!!! I have no idea why people talk about "three" fires.
Plenty of other cars have fires when you crash them!!!
There are TWO fires that followed driving over large metal objects.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Glad I could lighten things up, because it's clear that a lot of forum members are upset, and I think it definitely helps to take a step back.
It definitely sucks that all the bad news has seemingly arrived in a hurricane. While I am interested in the causes of short term price changes, I got into this game knowing that the Beta would be very high and that unexpected problems would likely appear. I therefore never let developing news shape my investment decisions.
If people feel like they are losing their nerve, it helps to remember that Intel survived the FDIV bug in the Pentium chip, that Apple survived iPhone 4 antennagate, and that Facebook took about a year to recover from its botched IPO. Tesla has a good team. I think it's highly likely they can weather the storm.
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