Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[AlMc]

IF, big IF, this is true, the bigger question almost is how does this slow down production of the assembly line.

Let us not get into the 'IFs' until we at least see Elon's blog. Obviously, it would not be good for production.





Personally, I believe the manual override on the height adjustment should have been standard all along (snow). This is a quick, fast fix that may solve some of the problem with highway debris. Long term, I am torn about battery reinforcement. If these are 'freak' incidents it seems further battery protection would indicate a design flaw and the stock/company image will take a hit. On the other hand as more cars are on the road if we start seeing more of these incidents then it would behove TM to try to make corrections with 25,000 Ss on the road versus 50K in a year .

 

[NigelM]

Tidbit from the Model S section: News-from-China-Tesla-China-accept-Reservation-from-Chinese-customers

 

[InTheShadows]

Let us not get into the 'IFs' until we at least see Elon's blog. Obviously, it would not be good for production.

IF it is true, wouldn't it all be handled by the service centers as a retrofit?

 

[AlMc]

IF it is true, wouldn't it all be handled by the service centers as a retrofit?

I am not smart enough to know how the battery pack is constructed/protected and how enhancing the protection would influence any other aspects of the car. It would be great if it were something as easy as a 'kevlar' or other type of quick, at the local SC, type fix.

I am of the opinion that we will see some type of change/enhancement of the protection of the battery pack. But it is my opinion, for what it is worth.

 

[uselesslogin]

I am not smart enough to know how the battery pack is constructed/protected and how enhancing the protection would influence any other aspects of the car. It would be great if it were something as easy as a 'kevlar' or other type of quick, at the local SC, type fix.

I am of the opinion that we will see some type of change/enhancement of the protection of the battery pack. But it is my opinion, for what it is worth.

FWIW my current theory is they need to reinforce the chassis under the front of the frunk so the debris would lever into the frunk instead of the battery. Either way I think there are lots of people at Tesla figuring out a great solution. It certainly might cost short term value in the stock price though.

 

[TSLAopt]

IF it is true, wouldn't it all be handled by the service centers as a retrofit?

My theory is they will push a software update out to require all cars to drive at high speeds with the high suspension until the car goes to the service center to get the extra under guard or whatever it is they will retrofit to better protect the car battery's rom these freak road debris accidens.

in the short run people will have slightly less highway driving range but once they have their appt for the retrofit they will have the same range again as their car will be unlocked to drive at highway speeds with low suspension again.

 

[aznt1217]

Chances are it'll be a setting or some kind of lip at the bottom of the car. I think it would be cool if there was a factory option lip kit... But probably will leave that for the after market...

 

[fjm9898]

I see it basically being a leading edge belly pan on the battery.

 

[NigelM]

Folks, there's a whole thread on ideas to protect the battery from debris - Preventing-battery-damage-from-road-debris

Please keep this thread to short-term TSLA topics.

 

[Chrisr400cc]

long term yes. short term, the stock would probably tank on the news.

Wouldn't the stock tank if they didn't do a recall? Investors will be nervous of another fire from road debris. If tesla does a recall to prevent road debris from damaging the battery, investors should be at ease.

 

[fjm9898]

Wouldn't the stock tank if they didn't do a recall? Investors will be nervous of another fire from road debris. If tesla does a recall to prevent road debris from damaging the battery, investors should be at ease.

Recall means added expenses and short term losses. Meaning short term the stock is going to take it badly.
longs will see this as an improvement to make one the best cars only better.

 

[AlMc]

Recall means added expenses and short term losses. Meaning short term the stock is going to take it badly.
longs will see this as an improvement to make one the best cars only better.

Exactly. Any indication of a hardware change/recall/retrofit to protect the battery pack is a tactic admission that there is a problem that will take engineering time and expense to effect an improvement/fix. This will make for an improved car long run...safest car for the occupants AND safest battery pack. However, it will hurt production/reservations/plan execution In the short run. That will affect the short term stock price.

 

[Krugerrand]

However, it will hurt production/reservations/plan execution In the short run. That will affect the short term stock price.

The assumption is that the stock will be affected negatively short term. Last recall the stock price went up.

 

[InTheShadows]

Might as well bite the bullet right now. The stock is already beat down. Do it now and get it over with.

 

[AlMc]

The assumption is that the stock will be affected negatively short term. Last recall the stock price went up.

Very different recall. My S was part of that recall, the fix was quick, identified by TM in advance of any reported incident/injury. I don't think these two situations are even close equivalents. TM was proactive with the welding/seat anchor recall, this issue, if resulting in a recall would be reactive.

 

[Jhall118]

Yeah, let's say they do a recall, beef up the battery pack, and then a freak accident occurs with even MORE force that causes another fire. That will be a nightmare.

There won't be a recall. It would be a stupid move.

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, let's say they do a recall, beef up the battery pack, and then a freak accident occurs with even MORE force that causes another fire. That will be a nightmare.

There won't be a recall. It would be a stupid move.

Well that is the question. Will it be more of a risk to change the battery protection and see another fire or don't change the battery protection and have another fire. That decision is way above my intelligence and pay grade. Just trying to figure out what effect all this will have on the short term Tesla price.

My opinion that may have a stabilizing affect on price of Tesla. Firmware change to adjust height of car..easy/cheap and a statement indicating that Elon is personally overseeing his engineering team to determine if any additional protection for the battery pack is needed.

If it is determined that a fix is needed I will assume it has been reached by some very smart people

 

[Curt Renz]

long term yes. short term, the stock would probably tank on the news.

Stock prices do not go down due to unexpected expenses, if what is spent is expected to add substantial long-term value to a company. They would only tank if the costs could bankrupt the company. Anticipated future value is baked into share prices. That’s why currently barely profitable Tesla Motors shares are valued so highly today. If anyone attempted to sell due to short-term costs that could greatly enhance future value, someone would buy from them immediately rather than have to pay a much higher price in the future. The latter investor would reap a large profit while the former would have sold at a loss.

 

[AlMc]

Stock prices do not go down due to unexpected expenses, if what is spent is expected to add substantial long-term value to a company. They would only tank if the costs could bankrupt the company. Anticipated future value is baked into share prices. That’s why currently barely profitable Tesla Motors shares are valued so highly today. If anyone attempted to sell due to short-term costs that could greatly enhance future value, someone would buy from them immediately rather than have to pay a much higher price in the future. The latter investor would reap a large profit while the former would have sold at a loss.

But Curt, Short term Stock prices do not only reflect the actual (non emotional?) value of a company, now or what is expected in the future. There is also a perceived (emotional?) value ascribed to the company/stock that can affect the short term stock price. Yes?

 

[vfx]

George had a Roadster, serial #8? We definitely need to arrange a Model S test drive for George.

He's kinda old.

This is true. George is one year older than Wilfred Brimley was when he was in Cocoon.