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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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My guess is that people are exhausted from the events of the past few weeks: the wild swings in stock price, the drama over the fire incidents, trading bots going crazy over the Q3 report. Massive amounts of unrealized wealth have evaporated, and the impeccable image of the Model S has, rightly or wrongly, been called into question.

For whatever reason, I may have an atypical mind, because I don't seem to be as emotionally affected as most people are by wild market swings. I am certainly not happy that the stock price has fallen so quickly, but at the same time, I firmly believe that investment in TSLA must be a long play in the 5-10 year range. The short term stuff I find very interesting, but not determinate of my investing strategy.

Tesla still has a lot of great stuff in the pipeline: Model X, completion of the supercharger network, advances in batteries, IP licensing, G3/Model E, automated driving, and more. The best is yet to come. I firmly believe that there will be great rewards for those who are patient. Expect downs as well as ups. Businesses are human endeavors, and as such, the road will never be perfect, certain, or without trial.

Very well said!!! +1000!
 
I thought Elon was suppose to post a blog about the last fire in Tennessee. I got an email about it saying "additional blog from Elon will follow shortly". But I never saw it. Did I miss it?

It'll probably come tomorrow. He has been traveling alot lately and chances are it must go through attorney review and PR review. The plant accident probably put a pause to it as well.
 
Hey guys since the number of posts has gone down I just want to say that I saw a P85+ with temporary tags today so I think that means that they are still delivering cars. It was black which seems to be a very popular color but the black really isn't my favorite. Also I don't know but I swear the Tesla is magic because she got ahead of the traffic while I was stuck behind 2 cars driving side-by-side doing 50 in a 65.
 
Hey guys since the number of posts has gone down I just want to say that I saw a P85+ with temporary tags today so I think that means that they are still delivering cars. It was black which seems to be a very popular color but the black really isn't my favorite. Also I don't know but I swear the Tesla is magic because she got ahead of the traffic while I was stuck behind 2 cars driving side-by-side doing 50 in a 65.


If we're going to talk about car sightings….. I want to say at least two weeks ago, I began seeing a white Model S in my area and have been seeing it nearly every day this past week. I live in a suburb where I wasn't expecting to see a Model S for at least another 2 years but seeing it now is a good sign in my book. Up until now, the nearest Model S's has been about a 45 minute drive away.

- - - Updated - - -

Mr Market has opened and we're off to the races….

TSLA has opened down so there's still a lot of downward pressure on the stock. Volume seems quite light for an opening.

I think the consolidation may continue to play out for a couple more days before we'll see some sort of breakout in either direction.
 
This is insane....another 11 AM TLR (Tesla Lunchtime Reversal)..... I was so close to buying ultra short term calls today... this week it popped around 11 AM 5 out of 5 times...in the last month it happened something like 90% of the trading days.....

Am I the only one seeing this? Is this the new Tesla Tuesday (AKA self fulfilling prophecy)?
 
Yep. Expect a Friday post... so that people have the entire weekend to think through it & read analysis before making stock market choices.
I hope he does something better than that last interview. Seems like he's trying to kill the stock lately.
Says its overvalued.
Sounds bored on earnings call, says good news as if someone died.
Gives an interview,
that misrepresents the fire risk,
flatly says there will be no recall,
laughs at a celebrity who complains about reliability problems

What more can he do to deep six the stock.
I can't believe he said no recall. Bad bad PR move. You don't make statements you can't back up. You can't appear cavalier about safety issues. He should have used some canned line about safety is the top priority, we'll continue to look into it and make any improvements we can over time yada yada, but currently we don't see a safety issue and think the car is safe, etc. But don't just ignore and misrepresent a fire risk that is higher than ICE vehicles. That will come back to haunt him.
Likewise, don't ignore and laugh at a celebrity complaining about reliability problems. Say reliability is important, state what was done to resolve the issue, restate that Tesla's are very reliable. Then you can say its old news. But don't diss it. That makes him and Tesla look smug and that they don't care about reliability issues. Again a bad bad PR move that will haunt him and Tesla.

Both of these last stories have the potential to define Tesla. New articles keep being written in the echo chamber. An otherwise perfect reputation may get tarnished.

The stock may be under pressure until Tesla gets out in front of this fire issue. As additional fires are most certainly reported, it won't help the stock. When someone does get hurt or killed in a Tesla, it won't help the stock.
 
I hope he does something better than that last interview. Seems like he's trying to kill the stock lately.
Sounds bored on earnings call, says good news as if someone died.
Elon has never exactly been an exuberant guy, but he's sounded more and more weary over the last year. In on camera interviews, that fire in his eyes has been replaced by something resembling resignation. I think he really enjoyed the challenge of bringing the cars to market and getting manufacturing in place, but I don't think he likes the routine rut of manufacturing micro-optimizations, dealing with suppliers, dealing with PR stuff like fires/celebrities/valuation/etc.

Maybe after the X it's time to step back to emphasizing his role as lead engineer/designer and let someone else run the company day to day. Elon could still be chairman or some such, but get him out from under the burdens of being the guy that does the bulk of the interviews and PR stuff.

It was Elon's passion about bringing about a better car and a better future that drew me to Tesla 3 years ago. Whatever has to be done to keep from burning out that passion is probably the best move for the company.
 
Elon has never exactly been an exuberant guy, but he's sounded more and more weary over the last year. In on camera interviews, that fire in his eyes has been replaced by something resembling resignation. I think he really enjoyed the challenge of bringing the cars to market and getting manufacturing in place, but I don't think he likes the routine rut of manufacturing micro-optimizations, dealing with suppliers, dealing with PR stuff like fires/celebrities/valuation/etc.

Maybe after the X it's time to step back to emphasizing his role as lead engineer/designer and let someone else run the company day to day. Elon could still be chairman or some such, but get him out from under the burdens of being the guy that does the bulk of the interviews and PR stuff.

It was Elon's passion about bringing about a better car and a better future that drew me to Tesla 3 years ago. Whatever has to be done to keep from burning out that passion is probably the best move for the company.
Thats exactly the way it seems. He just doesn't look interested all of a sudden. Or he's bored, or he's burned out. Or exactly as you say, its not exciting to him any more.
 
Thats exactly the way it seems. He just doesn't look interested all of a sudden. Or he's bored, or he's burned out. Or exactly as you say, its not exciting to him any more.

I'm betting jet lag and travel exhaustion. He just did the Germany and London events before the conference call. He could probably use a few extra days of vacation. So could I.
 
Am I reading this wrong? The only issue is that they emphasized the non-gaap number ahead of the gaap number? No problems with the accounting of either, just the emphasis?

That's how I read the original Bloomberg article. It states: “The number-one thing is that the [ER] headlines have the non-GAAP numbers and not the GAAP numbers.”
Are There Cockroaches Under Tesla’s Hood? - Bloomberg

Well, the Bloomberg headline is: Are There Cockroaches Under Tesla’s Hood? The implication is yes, but the article contains no evidence for this inflammatory implication other than the emphasis complaint and the following:

Mahoney noted two main problems with including [full revenue from financed cars] in non-GAAP revenue. Some customers wouldn’t have chosen Tesla cars were it not for the financing program. So the non-GAAP revenue isn’t comparable to Tesla’s sales before the program began, and it may overstate the true growth and demand.

Huh? The "true demand" is without the finance program? But the finance program truly exists.

Plus, by adding back the resale-value guarantee, the company “assumes that nobody is going to return the vehicle, for purposes of the non-GAAP revenue,” he said.

Or the company believes very few people will resell the most future-proofed car in history to Tesla when they can get more on the open market, and the company believes any cars it buys back can be refurbished and resold at a profit.

My headline would be: Is Bloomberg Becoming FOX News?
 
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That's how I read the original Bloomberg article. It states: “The number-one thing is that the headlines have the non-GAAP numbers and not the GAAP numbers.”
Are There Cockroaches Under Tesla’s Hood? - Bloomberg

Well, the Bloomberg headline is: Are There Cockroaches Under Tesla’s Hood? The implication is yes, but the article contains no evidence for this inflammatory implication other than the emphasis complaint and the following:



Huh? The "true demand" is without the finance program? But the finance program truly exists.



Or the company believes very few people will resell the most future-proofed car in history to Tesla when they can get more on the open market, and the company believes any cars it buys back can be refurbished and resold at a profit.

My headline would be: Is Bloomberg Becoming FOX News?

Or, "Who is the cockroach holding Bloopberg's joystick?"
But that would be unrespectful and irresponsible, which goes against MY nature ;-)
 
Sorry. Just have to disagree with this.
I don't see anything of the sort in Elon. He has never been flashy or "smooth." He has never been a "PR guy."
He is still genuine and committed, and I see no deviance from that. He carries a load, my friend, cut him some slack, ok?
The stock went down from unsustainable highs. I don't see anywhere where Elon is trying to "deep-six" the stock. That is ridiculous.
So is the reporting of George Clooney's comment. Needless comment from 5 years ago, needlessly reported. I agree with that.
There is no need to recall the Model S, there has been no demonstrable safety issue here as no one involved in any of the three fires was at risk from the fire!
If every gas car was recalled after every accident causing a fire and GM or BMW's stock went down 25% where would they be today? Give me a break!
Elon repeated that he is a perfectionist and safety is his top priority. I see no indication whatsoever of a change in that or a lack of passion about it.
Being honest about what he thought of the stock price? So what? It is up over 300% for the year. That is not good enough for you? Or you got in late and are in the red now?
Relax, friend. The real value is in the long term, and Elon has planned for that from the beginning.
Playing the short term swings is always speculation. Elon is not thinking about protecting short term stock highs.
Sometimes the day to day grind can get tiring for all of us, especially if we live in a media microscope. What do you expect from a human being?
I for one am tired of the mentality that "everything has to be perfect and sunny all the time, or "the end is nigh."
Maybe it is your passion that is flagging? Maybe you are burned out and need to move on from the Tesla fight.
Challenges are challenging and it takes a lot of effort and pain to go on learning and adapting at such a pace. No one has all the bases covered all the time. Do you?
When there is a lot on your mind, are you always careful to put on a sunny disposition and to smile and say nothing which may be interpreted in any way but perfectly?
Critical perspective is valid and welcome, but overblown expectations are really not helpful.


I hope he does something better than that last interview. Seems like he's trying to kill the stock lately.
Says its overvalued.
Sounds bored on earnings call, says good news as if someone died.
Gives an interview,
that misrepresents the fire risk,
flatly says there will be no recall,
laughs at a celebrity who complains about reliability problems

What more can he do to deep six the stock.
I can't believe he said no recall. Bad bad PR move. You don't make statements you can't back up. You can't appear cavalier about safety issues. He should have used some canned line about safety is the top priority, we'll continue to look into it and make any improvements we can over time yada yada, but currently we don't see a safety issue and think the car is safe, etc. But don't just ignore and misrepresent a fire risk that is higher than ICE vehicles. That will come back to haunt him.
Likewise, don't ignore and laugh at a celebrity complaining about reliability problems. Say reliability is important, state what was done to resolve the issue, restate that Tesla's are very reliable. Then you can say its old news. But don't diss it. That makes him and Tesla look smug and that they don't care about reliability issues. Again a bad bad PR move that will haunt him and Tesla.

Both of these last stories have the potential to define Tesla. New articles keep being written in the echo chamber. An otherwise perfect reputation may get tarnished.

The stock may be under pressure until Tesla gets out in front of this fire issue. As additional fires are most certainly reported, it won't help the stock. When someone does get hurt or killed in a Tesla, it won't help the stock.
 
Or, "Who is the cockroach holding Bloopberg's joystick?"
But that would be unrespectful and irresponsible, which goes against MY nature ;-)

bloomberg article is spot on and saying what i've said after the q3 earning when dumping my shares. it's easy to cook the books and fool people who are not familiar with accounting. tesla is still losing money and prefered to represent it as they've turned it around, BS!

suddenly i ear more and more voices here who don't likes much of the things that happen lately with the company, it's nice to know that not everyone here worship tesla and can have a word against when deservedly so.

anyway in the long run i still believe tesla can become a great company but lately they are far from it.
 
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