Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[imherkimer]

I see a lot of folks are selling, and TSLA is shrouded in fear now.
The nay-sayers are pumping out more articles every day (see the latest from John Peterson), FUD headlines abound, and the blood-lust short interest is growing again.
Some folks I know, who follow Fox News religiously, are positively giddy that TSLA stock is tanking. Now feeling vindicated, saying that Tesla was always "just hype," and now this is the beginning of the end for TSLA.
I find it all very strange.
Tesla's electric transportation system is advancing by any metric you want to apply. The car is as fantastic as ever, and the supercharger rollout is moving apace globally.
Q3 represented significant growth and advancement over Q2, on target and beating guidance, yet the market says value is less now? and still less going forward?
It is painful to watch the negativity rising, and shareholders running for the exits in panic.
Sooner or later, the tide will turn.

 

[marvinat0rz]

For those who are calling that it's a good discount to buy, what good news can you factor in that TSLA will have in the short term? It looks like to me that it will be months until this stock can recover at the current rate of bad news vs good news.

It is just wishful thinking that any stock you purchase will move in one direction after you buy it. At any time in Tesla's growth, including when it was at 30 dollars last year, it has been a 50-50 proposition whether the stock would move up during the next 6 months. This is just the nature of markets, and anyone claiming otherwise is at best doing wishful thinking. We had a massive sentiment change after the first quarter profit which some people correctly called due to VIN analysis and other information the market hadn't picked up on, and it has been good news and gravy since then.

Now we are back to the normal situation. Any investment decision should be made in at least a 5-year timeframe, meaning that you shouldn't expect to be able to withdraw your money at a profit at any point during that timeframe. Ignoring this guideline is speculation, not investing.

But Tesla is currently at a 16 billion dollar market cap. Do you expect the market to believe in 5 years, that Tesla will only earn an inflation-discounted 16 billion dollars over its entire history? And even if the market doesn't have this expectancy 5 years from now, will you? I can't time the bottom any better than anyone, but this will be a very good buy if the stock continues in the current direction and no bad news comes out.

 

[justthateasy]

What's happening, -3.6% in less than half an hour from open?

I think it's the bear pennant playing itself out. In a way, this is a good thing as it could be the new foundation for technicals since it was broken. I'll repeat my favorite adage for old time's sake, "Buying opportunity"*, haha. In reality however, it's probably best to take defensive action now that TSLA is back in the 120s.


*Disclaimer: This is not to be taken as trading advice and I am not responsible for any individual's trades, especially in this situation.

 

[SteveG3]

For those who are calling that it's a good discount to buy, what good news can you factor in that TSLA will have in the short term? It looks like to me that it will be months until this stock can recover at the current rate of bad news vs good news.

-Blog from Elon might be more compelling than what's come out thusfar in interviews

- such a blog likely would be followed up by analysts reiterations, upgrades to recommendations by some (based on valuation change and anything convincing in blog)

- weeks going by without fires... people realizing, "oh, it's not 3 fires in 5 weeks. it's 3 fires in 10 weeks,... 12 weeks. oh wait a minute, there was a whole year before that odd 5 week band of 3 fires. oh wait a minute, one of those fires was after the car went through a concrete wall... hmm, so 2 fires in a year. wow, sounds like Tesla does better re fires than ICE."

- if this happens, articles popping up, "Tesla Selloff Overdone?"


this is not to diminish that the stock may trade lower, nor to suggest it will bounce to $190... but I think in a few months it could very well trade at about $150, with great long-term prospects.

 

[d1stance]

The stock price movements are absolutely crazy. It is astounding how strong the market manipulation is. Fundamentally, Tesla is little changed from two months ago and is still on a great trajectory as a company. I can see how 200 was high at the time, but 130-140 seems like a reasonable stability point. But the constant negative pressure and false information is really taking its toll on the stock/company reputation. Tesla's biggest danger is not from automotive competition, but from financial attacks by hedge funds or wealthy individuals bent on shorting the stock.

Tesla really needs to do something to combat this - and I don't mean just from a stock price perspective. Buying a Model S is mainly based on the merits of the car, but I'd argue that many buyers also base their purchase on the reputation of the company. As more people build a negative image of the company, there may be fewer buyers, generating a negative feedback loop that will be disastrous.

 

[Krugerrand]

... and TSLA is shrouded in fear now.

It's like the good ole days.

It is painful to watch the negativity rising, and shareholders running for the exits in panic.

People have short memories, they're fickle, and they're about instant gratification: 'what have you done for me lately, Baby'. I don't find it painful to watch (anymore) - have seen it too many times - but it never fails to increase my disappoint in my fellow man.

Sooner or later, the tide will turn.

I agree. And then I'll get to be disappointed all over again as the bandwagon loads up.

 

[MartinAustin]

@SteveG3 exactly my attitude. I just bought a large chunk of stock at $128. (yes it's lower than that right now) but hey, there is nearly $70 of upside!!!

Even if it goes to $150 that will be a 17% gain.

Now that there has been a drop from $194 to $127, I am not sure the shorts & bears will keep complaining.

The fundamentals of the company are coming more to the fore - near-guaranteed increases in car sales, revenues & profit, more licensing of their battery & charging IP and so on. If they start to make their own batteries, that will become a major new profit center as they will almost certainly not lower the price of the Model S or batteries made for other companies.

 

[Gtoffo]

Short-Medium Term Catalysts:

Positive:
- Model X reveal
- NHTSA reaffirmation of safety or confirmation of no investigation
- New production records reached
- news from EU launch / Super Charger Rollout
- Promised service announcement
- Analysts declaring stock oversold
- New battery deals (highly improbable short term)

Uncertain:
- Elon's Blog Post

Negative:
- Another accident/fire
- NHTSA investigation

Do you guys agree?
Any other ideas?

 

[Causalien]

With the trend it's going, snapchat will soon be worth more than Tesla. I've often reflected that maybe Tesla should've waited and ipo'd with $40 price tag and initial valuation of $40bil.

Straddle is still recommended. A change of sentiment event seems to be coming. I'd be damned if it doesn't coincide with 200sma

 

[neroden]

Short-Medium Term Catalysts:

Positive:

Tesla's order backlogs are increasing, and this is despite Tesla increasing manufacturing rates.

In a manufacturer who has routine order backlogs, this is *always* a good sign, and at least some investors will take it that way. (I've studied the aircraft and railcar industries.) The sort of people who look at that will get nervous when Tesla starts delivering cars only a month away from ordering, and relax when the delay goes up to 2-3 months as it is now.

 

[ZenMan]

With the trend it's going, snapchat will soon be worth more than Tesla. I've often reflected that maybe Tesla should've waited and ipo'd with $40 price tag and initial valuation of $40bil.

Straddle is still recommended. A change of sentiment event seems to be coming. I'd be damned if it doesn't coincide with 200sma

Where is the 200sma now?

 

[MartinAustin]

Short-Medium Term Catalysts:


Do you guys agree?
Any other ideas?

All CNBC talks about today is the rally... obviously this isn't including TSLA but what that means is investors are deploying any available money they have in the rallying stocks. TSLA is just a cursed stock at the moment. Once it gains some favour people will realise how cheap it is. Warren Buffet's mantra comes to mind.

 

[hoang51]

I think I should make it clear what I've said earlier: The good news really need to be good news that can send this stock upwards. I think if anything, it'll be related to more batteries. But you have to remember: Tesla is still production limited. I doubt that there would be a great number of increased of sold vehicles to send this stock high. I think next year would allow this stock to grow. 4Q ER with favorable future guidance should probably propel this stock upwards to save it from bleeding.

 

[tlo]

Congrats to those who bought at $125.

 

[vfx]

Meanwhile, Tesla's plan is working. The shift is that people are now wanting electrics.

Consumers don’t simply want to see more alternative-fueled vehicle options — they are quite willing to consider buying them within the decade. Three in four (74%) would consider buying a hybrid electric, and three in five would consider purchasing a flex fuel (62%), fuel cell (58%) or battery electric vehicle (58%).

Study is from a group of gas station retail stores that are actually hurt by this news.

 

[sub]

I find it interesting that some of the "old timers" want to call out people that made a financial decision to sell their shares as TSLA was tanking. Turns out it was the smart move if you ask me. That has nothing to do with their belief in the company, mine hasn't changed. The stock price is not the company, sentiment has clearly turned against the stock, so why not sell and buy back more shares cheaper? I sold out immediately on news of the 3rd fire, bought back a small portion after feeling it had support in the mid 130's, then had a feeling it was going to fall more and sold those shares pre market last week. TSLA hasn't been above where I sold those shares since. I personally needed a small break from the risk/stress of TSLA. Sentiment will turn and this will be great for those that stayed in, or got back in at the right time. Just because some decided to hold their shares all the way to the bottom, wherever that may be, does not make them more "dedicated" to Tesla, it just makes their portfolio smaller. I have no regrets on how I've played TSLA on the way down. Enough with the superiority complex around here.

 

[Clemsons2k]

I find it interesting that some of the "old timers" want to call out people that made a financial decision to sell their shares as TSLA was tanking. Turns out it was the smart move if you ask me. That has nothing to do with their belief in the company, mine hasn't changed. The stock price is not the company, sentiment has clearly turned against the stock, so why not sell and buy back more shares cheaper? I sold out immediately on news of the 3rd fire, bought back a small portion after feeling it had support in the mid 130's, then had a feeling it was going to fall more and sold those shares pre market last week. TSLA hasn't been above where I sold those shares since. I personally needed a small break from the risk/stress of TSLA. Sentiment will turn and this will be great for those that stayed in, or got back in at the right time. Just because some decided to hold their shares all the way to the bottom, wherever that may be, does not make them more "dedicated" to Tesla, it just makes their portfolio smaller. I have no regrets on how I've played TSLA on the way down. Enough with the superiority complex around here.

Amen.

 

[joefee]

“Sell 1st ask questions latter” Sold the last of my common stock in pre-market at $146.85. My options will close 11/8 then I’ll wait for a basing formation in the 120-140 range. Technicals are bad, momentum is broken….be very careful with your retirement money …. we are lucky Twitter is sucking the air out of the stock news cycle!

update: Set to buy under 122 (with cash covered 11/22 125 put option) and will add if downward slide continues past this level.

 

[AlMc]

I find it interesting that some of the "old timers" want to call out people that made a financial decision to sell their shares as TSLA was tanking. Turns out it was the smart move if you ask me. That has nothing to do with their belief in the company, mine hasn't changed. The stock price is not the company, sentiment has clearly turned against the stock, so why not sell and buy back more shares cheaper? I sold out immediately on news of the 3rd fire, bought back a small portion after feeling it had support in the mid 130's, then had a feeling it was going to fall more and sold those shares pre market last week. TSLA hasn't been above where I sold those shares since. I personally needed a small break from the risk/stress of TSLA. Sentiment will turn and this will be great for those that stayed in, or got back in at the right time. Just because some decided to hold their shares all the way to the bottom, wherever that may be, does not make them more "dedicated" to Tesla, it just makes their portfolio smaller. I have no regrets on how I've played TSLA on the way down. Enough with the superiority complex around here.

I agree with everything you say other than the characterization of a 'superiority complex' by some of the long term holders. I gladly wear the moniker of 'weak long' if I can identify a point of taking a breather from TSLA (after all it is in a 'mo-mo' stock stage)to book profits that I can turn around and buy back in at a lower price. I still hold a large number of TSLA shares but as you and I had discussed before I sold off 70-80% as soon as the third fire was confirmed.

 

[fjm9898]

So What do people have as the next legit support level? i thought $125 would of held, guess not.