Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[justthateasy]

Im in a really pissed off mood right now, trying to neutralize with jamaican rum. You can call me a conspiracy theoritican but im smelling that the big boys are manupulating the tsla stock bigtime. First they made money by inflating the balloon. Now theyare making money again by letting air off the balloon. There isnt any SERIOUS reason for the nearly 40% dip in the last week. Without REAL bad news. Now im asking you guys: What happens if NHTSA comes out with a negative report for Model S undearneath, stating it HAS to be reinforced?? Will we dip below 100$ then??? What im trying to say here is. The RISE was too fast, and was an illusion, now the DIP will also be fast and illogical.

I will buy tsla stock again and only if it dips under 80$....

p.s.: im pissed off by tesla managements arrogant stubborness and making comments like "there is nothing in model s to be optimized. The car is safe enough." That art of commenting was amateurish and has room for improvement as ELON says...They should have calmed the market down, even if with a PLACEBO

I was you a couple weeks ago and honestly, I'm glad I got out then when TSLA was in the 140s because I don't know what kind of panic I'd be in after seeing today's slide back to the low 120s. Regardless, I'll join you for a drink anyway. :smile:

As far as giving statements to the public/press goes, Apple is/was notorious for keeping its silence when issues arise. Tesla is probably doing that here because it's all ready been found that there isn't much substance to the fires. I know that people like to think of Tesla purely as an automotive company but we know that Tesla operates much like a tech company.

My only gripe is that twitter is worth more than TSLA. Maybe TSLA should slap social on and offer dashboar ads and get a 40 bil valuation.

Valuation, schmaluation. This may be happening now but Twitter's valuation will one day drop, probably sooner than later. Do keep in mind that unlike Twitter or Facebook, Tesla produces a tangible product that generates a good amount of revenue for the company.

Elon Musk should be careful with communication with media for many reasons discuss on the forum.

Agreed, especially with his candor. His words can easily be taken out of context by the mainstream media.

 

[bareyb]

Wow. We bought it at the worst possible time it would seem. I have to laugh or I'll cry. I said we were in it for the long haul, but this is ridiculous. Any idea when this will be over $178.00 again? :redface:

 

[RobotGrease]

A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement to a price that is 61.8034% of a record high often marks the bottom of a retracement, as noted in the book I wrote on technical analysis for McGraw-Hill. Of course I am far from alone in realizing that. The intra-day TSLA high price on September 30 was $194.50 and the close was $193.37. The theoretical Golden Ratio lows based on those prices would be $120.21 and $ 119.51. The intra-day low today was $119.61 and the close was $121.58.

So the TSLA price is currently near the level of an ideal Golden Ratio retracement. This may seem like numerology quite unrelated to fundamental valuations, but mass psychology is a big factor in share prices. The Golden Ratio is one that people find pleasing in many ways and is often found in artistic and architectural design. It has often proven to be the point where investors say “enough is enough” in a market decline. The bot trading algorithms used by hedge funds incorporate technical analysis. The Golden Ratio may be one of the indicators they are programmed to consider. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Thanks for this info Curt, very interesting. If this isn't the bottom, I believe the 200d MA has a good chance of holding. Outside of these technical supports, we need some significant new info to turn this downtrend around. Just like it took a fire (or 3) to end the positive momentum, it might take an equally large positive event to end the negative momentum.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Wow. We bought it at the worst possible time it would seem. I have to laugh or I'll cry. I said we were in it for the long haul, but this is ridiculous. Any idea when this will be over $178.00 again? :redface:

Q2 2015 after a couple of quarters of full bore Model X production and after the Gen 3 prototype reveal

 

[justthateasy]

I've had trouble recently with charting TSLA. I wasn't able to find a satisfying trend to describe the recent movement... until today. See the big red channel, very telling. I was being thrown off by the outliers around the ER and the ATH. It looks so obvious now... Today's movement spanned the entire channel.

Same here but I see what you're saying. Though, I am surprised that you didn't draw out the bear pennant leading to today's drop. It was completely set up and began playing out today. The completion of the bear pennant playing out should expand or break the (red) lower support line of the channel and move it down to the 200MA.

 

[SteveG3]

Short-term is a funny thing. Let's hope all the negative press now looks as silly a year from now as this piece from last year does. I'll be surprised if this does not turn out to be the case.

Tesla's Slow Lane: Selling Another $147M in Stock: Video - Bloomberg

 

[justthateasy]

Wow. We bought it at the worst possible time it would seem. I have to laugh or I'll cry. I said we were in it for the long haul, but this is ridiculous. Any idea when this will be over $178.00 again? :redface:

Q2 2015 after a couple of quarters of full bore Model X production and after the Gen 3 prototype reveal

It could easily happen after Q4 2013 or Q1 2014 earnings release.

Personally, I think we'll see TSLA trading at 200 and beyond by mid-2014. Then again, I also thought that TSLA would be at 200 by now. :redface:

 

[RobotGrease]

Same here but I see what you're saying. Though, I am surprised that you didn't draw out the bear pennant leading to today's drop. It was completely set up and began playing out today. The completion of the bear pennant playing out should expand or break the (red) lower support line of the channel and move it down to the 200MA.

Can you post a pic? The extent of my charting is parallel lines. Actually, its kinda all it is, but it works for me. Anyways, can you post a pic of said "bear pennant". Thanks!

 

[Rwolf01]

Yeah, somehow I think the low was reached just below 120 and we will never see that mark again. I'm not one for predictions but I just have a weird feeling this was the absolute bottom and shorts will begin covering with the circuit breaker being triggered.

What is the definition of a bottom? It's not when people are calling it... that is the sound of people in denial and just hoping the slide will stop.

The bottom occurs when the largest percentage of people truly believes the stock will keep falling. Just as the peak occurred when the majority of people truly believed the stock could do no wrong and it would continue to go up forever.

I like the car, the company and the management. But I do think they are engaged in a very risky business. They have technical challenges, huge execution risks and some very powerful enemies.

Beware of stocks where most of the money has been made, when most of the work remains to be done.

I sold at 173, right after the first fire. I'm planning to buy again, but not yet...

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

I find it interesting that some of the "old timers" want to call out people that made a financial decision to sell their shares as TSLA was tanking. Turns out it was the smart move if you ask me. That has nothing to do with their belief in the company, mine hasn't changed. The stock price is not the company, sentiment has clearly turned against the stock, so why not sell and buy back more shares cheaper? I sold out immediately on news of the 3rd fire, bought back a small portion after feeling it had support in the mid 130's, then had a feeling it was going to fall more and sold those shares pre market last week. TSLA hasn't been above where I sold those shares since. I personally needed a small break from the risk/stress of TSLA. Sentiment will turn and this will be great for those that stayed in, or got back in at the right time. Just because some decided to hold their shares all the way to the bottom, wherever that may be, does not make them more "dedicated" to Tesla, it just makes their portfolio smaller. I have no regrets on how I've played TSLA on the way down. Enough with the superiority complex around here.

Hopefully this wasn't directed at me . But to answer your question: I generally don't advocate jumping in and out of a stock because it's difficult for most people to time the move correctly. In my experience, chasing is generally a losing proposition. If you can do it and understand the risk, then more power to you.

My concern is that some people may have purchased shares when they did not understand the volatility or the risk involved. This is not an investment that one should stake critical money on, or go "all in". Based on what I'm reading ("sky is falling" type stuff), there are clearly many people that have overestimated their risk tolerance.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks Curt, if 61% retrace doesn't hold then we have the 50% up next. Would you care to speculate the earliest we could expect TSLA to be added to the S&P 500?

You’re welcome. Fortunately my position is almost fully hedged with options, so current price movements have little net effect on my overall TSLA position. I option hedge rather than sell shares bought in February, in order to avoid the high taxes on my huge gains if realized after less than a year. So I sleep easily and have not been contributing to the downward pressure on the share price. A bounce above the current level may cause me to reduce some of my hedging.

Inclusion in the S&P 500 could come after the end of the year, if the company reports positive non-GAAP earnings for the fourth consecutive quarter. That seems to be the only criterion that has not yet been met. Nevertheless, the index committee has full discretion in determining which companies to add or delete from the 500.

Another piece of potential good news not being considered lately would be a positive response from the White House regarding the petition asking the federal government to invoke the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution against states requiring Tesla Motors to sell and service through local middlemen.

 

[tlo]

FB down 6.5%
YELP down 9%
TWTR down 6.5%

This is business as usual.

Relax and get ready to hold for a while. This is just noise. Tesla the company is still running as we speak, solving tough problems and increasing production. To me, company fundamentals are improving each day. I know this is the short-term thread, but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine, and to me TSLA is undervalued at $120.

The last several months have been way too rosy for TSLA investors. Everyone was thinking BUY-BUY-BUY, except for some long-timers who saw that as a warning. Good call.

This now reminds me of 2012 or 2011, when TSLA would run up to $39 only to fall back to $22. Those were bigger downswings than we are facing now. Those of us who held through those times (when TSLA could have folded) were rewarded, while others missed out.

 

[bareyb]

Well goody for you.

j/k…

 

[chillong]

Im getting more and more concerned that a general sell-off in the market will occur soon. One can kind off smell the nervosity right now. No one wants to miss on the gains going up, yet they are afraid of getting caught by a downswing which will have to occur sooner or later. I am not sure how TSLA will fare in such an market in the short term. Double digits number are easily within reach. Will be busy buying NFLX etc puts in the next few days.
Plusside: This could be the perfect setup for an great start into 2014 when proper guidance/X/Gigafactory get presented.

 

[SteveG3]

Curt, first thanks for all your contributions here.

I was wondering about these lawsuits... they all look like frivolous pot stirring to me.

The ones about the car safety, my common sense clearly tells me these are non-starters.

The ones about financial reporting, look the same to me, but I do not a background in SEC expectations/enforcement. Any thoughts on these lawsuits? (I should mention, it's not that I am concerned that Tesla has committed any major violation, but rather that there may be enough of something minor that such a suit could drain some of managements time)

 

[AprilDelivery??]

Shorts sale restrictions have been put in for November 18, 19. It didn't help today. You think it will help tomorrow?

 

[marvinat0rz]

I've had trouble recently with charting TSLA. I wasn't able to find a satisfying trend to describe the recent movement... until today. See the big red channel, very telling. I was being thrown off by the outliers around the ER and the ATH. It looks so obvious now... Today's movement spanned the entire channel.

Hm, Tesla Motors bankrupt by February? Color me skeptical.

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt, first thanks for all your contributions here.

I was wondering about these lawsuits... they all look like frivolous pot stirring to me.

The ones about the car safety, my common sense clearly tells me these are non-starters.

The ones about financial reporting, look the same to me, but I do not a background in SEC expectations/enforcement. Any thoughts on these lawsuits? (I should mention, it's not that I am concerned that Tesla has committed any major violation, but rather that there may be enough of something minor that such a suit could drain some of managements time)

You’re welcome, Steve.

Indeed the lawsuits appear quite frivolous. But a certain type of law firm specializes in this kind of nuisance making. I don’t expect many shareholders to join the suit as it could harm their own interests. Nevertheless, those law firms peddle this type of nonsense in hope of obtaining a settlement that enriches the firm and provides little for the plaintiffs. In these cases it would not surprise me if Elon stands firm, demands court trials, and files countersuits. Proving his case in court would provide press coverage for a company and product that are still not that well known due to nothing being spent on advertising.

 

[DaveT]

Just posted some of my thoughts on TSLA's current price:
Making sense of TSLA at $121.58

 

[Curt Renz]

Shorts sale restrictions have been put in for November 18, 19. It didn't help today. You think it will help tomorrow?

It wasn’t until the final 40 minutes of trading today that the share price was down 10%. Soon afterward short selling restrictions were applied and the price started to pick up. Restrictions on short selling tomorrow could inhibit the hedge fund bots that initiate selling waves by pushing the price down through stop limits set by nervous shareholders. That may provide a good chance for the share price to stabilize, and for bottom fishers to feel comfortable making purchases.