Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[nygiants242]

How do i get in on these convertible notes?

x2

Really curious about this..

 

[mitch672]

So long as Obama shares the credit with Bush, I'm okay with that.

Correct me if I remember this wrong, but it was Republicans piling on during the debates about the failed loan program (I am talking to you Mr. Romney), you can't have it both ways.

 

[gaswalla]

Correct me if I remember this wrong, but it was Republicans piling on during the debates about the failed loan program (I am talking to you Mr. Romney), you can't have it both ways.

as a conservative independent, mitch makes an excellent point..

 

[hershey101]

Bets on the movement tomorrow? Will we break 90? how about 95?

 

[ggies07]

Correct me if I remember this wrong, but it was Republicans piling on during the debates about the failed loan program (I am talking to you Mr. Romney), you can't have it both ways.

This is true. They may have started it, but then decided to use it for political gain. (which it did not help). I'd love to get a .gif of Palin calling this company a failure.

 

[kenliles]

So long as Obama shares the credit with Bush, I'm okay with that.

what mitch said
plus- then Bush would share the blame for Fisker... etc.? Which way is it? both I'm sure

 

[ShortSlaver]

Bets on the movement tomorrow? Will we break 90? how about 95?

We go over $100.00 tomorrow, my friend.

 

[Norse]

beiing a newbie, should I buy more now?

 

[AudubonB]

Sooo...... a convertible preferred.

I think I'm going to call a CALLED IT HERE FIRST, folks, and give myself a pat on the back. If someone claims prior guess, I'll rescind that pat. Either way, I'm happy.

 

[bollar]

Correct me if I remember this wrong, but it was Republicans piling on during the debates about the failed loan program (I am talking to you Mr. Romney), you can't have it both ways.

I didn't say Republicans... Though I'm sure they'll be sure to pile onto the "it was our idea" bandwagon now!

 

[jerry33]

what mitch said
plus- then Bush would share the blame for Fisker... etc.? Which way is it? both I'm sure

The problem is that these kinds of loans are made with full knowledge that many will default because new things often don't work--that's why it's the government loaning the money rather than private investors. Using failures or successes later for political points is kind of silly because failures are expected and successes are rare and as much luck as anything else. (It's the picking of the winners that's the luck part, not the actual winners that have good management, a sound business plan, and can execute it successfully.) Now if it turns out that the loans were given under false pretenses, that's a different matter.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Shorting is selling, which is likely to push shares downward. That doesn't seem to be a feature in today's after hours trading. It's more likely that some shorts are covering (buying).

As I've been saying, a subsequent offering would imply a need to ramp up production to meet demand inspired by new financing and servicing plans along with accolades from Consumer Reports. This could indicate a business that is really going to become a big player in the automobile industry and cause investors to overlook concern about dilution.

Do we figure they are going to have ~$600m in cash after paying off the loan? They can get stuff done with that.

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Bets on the movement tomorrow? Will we break 90? how about 95?

I expect up.

 

[mitch672]

I didn't say Republicans... Though I'm sure they'll be sure to pile onto the "it was our idea" bandwagon now!

Last time I checked, Bush was a Republican. Anyway, enough politics, this is going to get moved to Snipiness if we keep beating this old dog

 

[kenliles]

Do we figure they are going to have ~$600m in cash after paying off the loan? They can get stuff done with that.

But according to Elon's last statement it's not cash they need to get the stuff done they need to get done. It would be for next year R&D I guess (ModelX and GenIII); Just took advantage of the short squeeze stock pricing to get it locked in now.
This really should drive the stock price down in my mind as it both dilutes and clears short positions. It didn't seem to me lack of cash was holding back the stock price

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Last time I checked, Bush was a Republican. Anyway, enough politics, this is going to get moved to Snipiness if we keep beating this old dog

Yes, the political discussion is seriously OT.

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But according to Elon's last statement it's not cash they need to get the stuff done they need to get done. It would be for next year R&D I guess (ModelX and GenIII); Just took advantage of the short squeeze stock pricing to get it locked in now.
This really should drive the stock price down in my mind as it both dilutes and clears short positions. It didn't seem to me lack of cash was holding back the stock price

They were planning ~$200m in CapEx this year. It was going to be tight trying to build out that much stuff just from sales. This gives them a real nice cushion.

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Not to mention taking the loan off of the books. Tesla is going to be in a strong position.

 

[ShortSlaver]

The problem is that these kinds of loans are made with full knowledge that many will default because new things often don't work--that's why it's the government loaning the money rather than private investors. Using failures or successes later for political points is kind of silly because failures are expected and successes are rare and as much luck as anything else. (It's the picking of the winners that's the luck part, not the actual winners that have good management, a sound business plan, and can execute it successfully.) Now if it turns out that the loans were given under false pretenses, that's a different matter.

Plus the success of Tesla will far and away make up for the losses of the other companies. The government will collect a lot of tax revenue, etc if Tesla hits their potential. Creates jobs and that's the governments job in the eyes of a lot of people.

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The problem is that these kinds of loans are made with full knowledge that many will default because new things often don't work--that's why it's the government loaning the money rather than private investors. Using failures or successes later for political points is kind of silly because failures are expected and successes are rare and as much luck as anything else. (It's the picking of the winners that's the luck part, not the actual winners that have good management, a sound business plan, and can execute it successfully.) Now if it turns out that the loans were given under false pretenses, that's a different matter.

Plus the success of Tesla will far and away make up for the losses of the other companies. The government will collect a lot of tax revenue, etc if Tesla hits their potential. Creates jobs and that's the governments job in the eyes of a lot of people.

 

[kenliles]

They were planning ~$200m in CapEx this year. It was going to be tight trying to build out that much stuff just from sales. This gives them a real nice cushion.

Not to mention taking the loan off of the books. Tesla is going to be in a strong position.

So I take it, you would see this a net positive on the share price from current levels then - I think we passed $10B valuation if I remember right; A rise in price and number of shares going to bring us another B or 2. I'm really having a hard time absorbing all the short squeeze to date as being now a supported long position (on a short term price movement basis - not a eventual scenario)

 

[Enadler]

This is great news for the company but complicates my thought process. I am still long but have a cash position and was looking for an entry point. I felt certain we would see some low to mid 70's once the shorts cleared but now I am not so certain. This is a really tough call.

Thoughts anyone? So far AM has a nice bump but nothing outrageous. This will certainly speed up the shorts that need to cover so short term certainly a nice pop but where do we suppose the new trading range should be once this all clears?

 

[AudubonB]

My take, Ken (post #1934), is that the triple positives of (1) ridding the company of the onus of the DEA loan, (2) the imprimatur afforded the common stock by Mr Musk anteing up for more out of pocket, and (3) the increased working capital significantly outweigh the single negative of dilution. As such, the effect is for the stock price to rise and thus any short-clearing has to occur at a higher...and higher....and higher price which, ipso facto, raises the price.

It's all unabashedly great news.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

So I take it, you would see this a net positive on the share price from current levels then - I think we passed $10B valuation if I remember right; A rise in price and number of shares going to bring us another B or 2. I'm really having a hard time absorbing all the short squeeze to date as being now a supported long position (on a short term price movement basis - not a eventual scenario)

I expect a strong move upwards tomorrow. I could obviously be wrong. I see no reason at all for this to cause a sharp fall though. This is a fundamentally good move and should get a good reaction.

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My take, Ken (post #1934), is that the triple positives of (1) ridding the company of the onus of the DEA loan, (2) the imprimatur afforded the common stock by Mr Musk anteing up for more out of pocket, and (3) the increased working capital significantly outweigh the single negative of dilution. As such, the effect is for the stock price to rise and thus any short-clearing has to occur at a higher...and higher....and higher price which, ipso facto, raises the price.

It's all unabashedly great news.

Yes, we could easily see this effect on what are likely very large short positions taken out in the mid-$80's range. If the stock spikes tomorrow we could see a new squeeze in the following days. Hard to say though. I think the weak shorts are cleared out already, and the stock might not spike enough to break the new ones.

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And keep in mind, we still have the SuperCharger announcement and (probably) the swap announcement over the next couple of weeks. I see no reason for the stock to be falling. Again, this is virgin territory, so who knows how things might turn, but all I see is up. If I wasn't fully invested already, I'd consider buying some at $85, and that wasn't the case for me earlier today.