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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Today the Associated Press reported on a Friday statement issued by the Chinese State Council.

BEIJING (AP) -- China's Cabinet has announced measures to curb the country's notorious air pollution…China's new measures are intended to adjust the country's energy structure, increase supplies of cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas and methane, raise the quality of car fuel and phase out older, more polluting, cars…The Cabinet also expressed support for the country's solar industry during its "production and operating difficulties."

Full AP article: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_AIR_POLLUTION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
 
Alright guys, we've got a very interesting week ahead. Thursday evening is the mystery 5th announcement. Would love to hear your guesses on what you think might happen with the stock price this week.

My tentative guess is the stock moves a bit higher and peaks on Wed, comes down a bit on Thursday and comes down a bit more on Friday.
 
Alright guys, we've got a very interesting week ahead. Thursday evening is the mystery 5th announcement. Would love to hear your guesses on what you think might happen with the stock price this week.

My tentative guess is the stock moves a bit higher and peaks on Wed, comes down a bit on Thursday and comes down a bit more on Friday.

Of course, what happens on Friday will also depend on the 5th announcement and whether or not investors are impressed by it.
 
Alright guys, we've got a very interesting week ahead. Thursday evening is the mystery 5th announcement. Would love to hear your guesses on what you think might happen with the stock price this week.

My tentative guess is the stock moves a bit higher and peaks on Wed, comes down a bit on Thursday and comes down a bit more on Friday.

Those were my thoughts as most likely scenerio, too. I'm not going to sell any of my stock or LEAPS but will probably be selling most of my shorter term options on Wednesday.
 
If the announcement is indeed battery swapping, I wouldn't be surprised if the market reacts negatively, since battery swapping was the apparent defining characteristic of Better Place, which went bankrupt a few weeks ago. But I wouldn't make any bets on this.
 
Alright guys, we've got a very interesting week ahead. Thursday evening is the mystery 5th announcement. Would love to hear your guesses on what you think might happen with the stock price this week.

My tentative guess is the stock moves a bit higher and peaks on Wed, comes down a bit on Thursday and comes down a bit more on Friday.

Thats whats normal yes. But if more People raise their target, we might not get Down again.

Here is 150$ http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...al-equities-research-initiates-tesla-motors-a
 
If the announcement is indeed battery swapping, I wouldn't be surprised if the market reacts negatively, since battery swapping was the apparent defining characteristic of Better Place, which went bankrupt a few weeks ago. But I wouldn't make any bets on this.

I don't think better places really a fair comparison. Because the battery swap was their ONLY proposition offered. They didn't make the cars, lacked integration, and do not have the level of engineering expertise that tesla has. If anything swapping is there to remove that mental barrier of range anxiety and just further augment supercharging.
 
I don't think better places really a fair comparison. Because the battery swap was their ONLY proposition offered. They didn't make the cars, lacked integration, and do not have the level of engineering expertise that tesla has. If anything swapping is there to remove that mental barrier of range anxiety and just further augment supercharging.

Oh yes, I agree with you 100% that this would not be a fair comparison - it would probably cause a very good buying opportunity. Seeing how harebrained the public commentary about Tesla has been for the last 6 months (when I have been paying attention to it), I wouldn't at all be surprised if this news caused a drop or at the very least a lot of attention from naysayers.

Update:

Re. Norse: Thanks for the link. It's nice to see the idea of Tesla catching on. But if more analysts start setting high price targets on Tesla while mentioning the Hyperloop as something that Tesla will be involved in, I will start getting worried that we are moving into bubble territory. The Hyperloop is just an idea that Musk has mentioned a couple of times, in the same context as all-electric airliners. Might be a good idea for a different company, but definitely not something which would intersect with Tesla's business model.

Does anyone by any chance have access to the report by Global Equities Research? Would be nice to see if they have something more substantial backing up their claims, or if it's just all hot air. I'm long Tesla, but it's nice to see what others think.
 
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Oh yes, I agree with you 100% that this would not be a fair comparison - it would probably cause a very good buying opportunity. Seeing how harebrained the public commentary about Tesla has been for the last 6 months (when I have been paying attention to it), I wouldn't at all be surprised if this news caused a drop or at the very least a lot of attention from naysayers.
One thing that makes this a very volatile stock is the lack of basic understanding of the plugin industry by "analysts". The other day I read someone claim TSLA stock dipped because Volt is offering a discount !! There was another that talked about the GM Spark (!!) being the main competitor !!!

We should be prepared for wild swings as clueless "experts" comment on Tesla & the industry.
 
I thought it might be interesting to find out how the market reacted to the last few live reveal events (Model X, Supercharger) in 2012 so I pulled up the historical stock prices around those times. But it's probably anyone's guess what the 5th announcement is going to be in detail and how the market will react.

announcement.png
 
In the report, Global Equities Research noted, “We are initiating coverage on Tesla Motors (TSLA) with an overweight rating and with a 12 – 18 months Price Target of $150. Tesla is creating a completely new $100 Billion Industry, which we at Global Equities Research call 'Transport-as-a-Service' (TaaS). Tesla has Mobility Vehicles, Software & Applications, Tesla Cloud, PowerGrid and futuristic Hyperloop, which we think may help Tesla capture about 60% of this TaaS Industry, which spans Anything and Everything between Bicycles and Hyperloop. Our 12 – 18 month price target of $150 on Tesla is based PE multiple of 2500x FY2013 estimates of $0.06, and on a PE multiple of 163x FY2014 estimates of $0.92.”

Read more: UPDATE: Global Equities Research Initiates Tesla Motors at Overweight on New Transport Service Industry | Benzinga


"PE multiple of 2500x FY2013 estimates of $0.06” = more bait for the shorts:crying:
 
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IMO the big question for investors and of relevance to short term TSLA price movement will be not the technology in it self (exactly how it's done, if it takes 5 or 10 minutes) but the business side of the concept: pricing of the service ("free" like the supercharging???), how it affects warranty and battery ownership (will ownership now be transferrable to leasing instead?) and rollout - how many stations? where? when?
 
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Seeing the apprehension from even some of the die-hard Tesla fans about battery swapping, my hunch is that the stock will take a hit in the short term after the official announcement/demonstration. If it does I'll finally have my window of opportunity to purchase at a price I'm comfortable with.
 
Seeing the apprehension from even some of the die-hard Tesla fans about battery swapping, my hunch is that the stock will take a hit in the short term after the official announcement/demonstration. If it does I'll finally have my window of opportunity to purchase at a price I'm comfortable with.

Why would there be apprehension? The swapping seems like it'll help alleviate some concerns about the convenience of having an EV.
 
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