sorry, nygiants, you still have the concept wrong. It is not swapping of the main battery pack! Why would this only be negative for shareholders? No potential upside? Silliness! Yeah, you better just sell and go home and forget about TSLA. I don't know what you expect, but you clearly don't get the Tesla vision.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Relax. No potential upside in the short-term. The announcement is out, shareholders are reacting negatively - what details could come out on a Thursday that could make this valuable to a shareholder? I think a battery swap system is incredible, and it gets rid of one of the major arguments against Tesla/owning a Model S vs. an ICE. But I just foresee complicated logistics (keeping track of batteries, building out the infrastructure, etc.). That's all.
The real questions and apprehensions are with the whole notion of ownership of Battery packs. An owner won't want to swap because they don't want a more used/bad battery pack. For example, what if somebody has more mileage on their battery and somebody who just bought a Model S has a fresh pack and did the swap... Similar to swapping out propane tanks for your Gas BBQ Grill. It's this entire notion that bothers people.
I wouldn't read into it too much. I think what this does is it will get rid of range anxiety. We also do not know how this will be implemented for sure. I think selling at this point might be premature and too short sighted. Battery swapping if implemented properly could be the key to winning over people who might not have the capability to charge their potential Model S' at home (like myself).
What I imagine is this. Tesla produces excess Battery Packs and places them at supercharging stations or even at places where they make deals to power the places off grid then you drop your pack off and do a swap and on the return trip you get your pack back. This is the best and most viable method that is fair and efficient in my mind.
deonb
Active Member
Mostly because nobody can come up with a technical or business scenario to make this compelling, and companies have failed (very recently) as a result.
Over the last few announcements, TMC has always been able to come up with fantastical ideas, and then Tesla actually went and announced something more subdued but still usable. However, even the best Battery Swapping scenario imagined on TMC so far has been a really really bad idea overall.
Hence, the apprehension... (And apparently the market agrees.)
I actually think that the announcement will be surprising on the positive side, just because everybody thinks it's such a bad idea. Elon must know this as well, so why make a big hoopla about the announcement?
So I think we're in for a surprise yet.
Apprehension because a battery swapping company just went belly up.
There are a lot of questions about how to make battery swapping work. And if anyone can do it I believe Tesla can. But there are valid reasons for concern.
Announcement comes on Thursday, not out yet! Also today is Tuesday, TSLA is always backs off at least a little on Tuesdays. Have some patience and see what follows Elon's demonstration. I don't see how shareholders could have reacted yet, (trading is very light so far today). There have been preliminary indications but the announcement with demo comes Thursday night. Seems wise to wait for the specifics. And I think its fair to assume that Elon is well aware of logistics issues and has planned well for this since early on, and the timing of the announcement is not random or hap-hazard. So far the long range planning and logistics have been handled at Tesla Motors, with nearly the same precision and attention to detail as the engineering on the Model S. Elon keeps the long range in view.
Yes, people continue to reference Better Place, but they keep forgetting that they were solely reliant on Battery Swapping and relying on Renault to make a vehicle (which was poor). More importantly they wanted a unified battery architecture - one form factor, one size, that's it. Kind of like AA, D, AAA standards.
Tesla is doing Fast Charging + Battery Swapping + Making an awesome car. Tesla also believes that the batteries should be tailored to the car (which is why the Model S uses it as a stressed structural part). Investors can believe what they want, but I think I will side with the man who makes rockets.
moltenfire
Member
Given that Elon's tweet came out last night, the market is reacting pretty well considering (only down ~2%) to slightly below 100. Some here were expecting mid 80s if battery swapping was announced.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. I agree. I baby my 60 kwh pack for long life. I'd love to go to my local TM service center and swap out for a huge rental battery before taking a long trip. I'm thrilled not have all those long trip miles on MY battery. A rental battery would probably reduce the lifetime miles on my battery by 20-25%.
I've got places to go! I'm in SoCal and between the coming Superchargers along the 101 and a huge battery swap, I'm ready for some great trips up the coast.
BTW: the 85 kwh owners benefit too if there's a 100+ kwh swap battery available in the near-term. I really hope TM demos this 100+ kwh battery prototype on Thursday or at least says that it's coming! This future proofs our cars.
I think there's a lot of positive upside in the battery swap option.
Initially I only thought about the battery swap in the connection with the superchargers. Out of cities, in the middle of nowhere, only for long distance travels.
Today someone mentioned taxies.
I recall that some time ago there was a discussion about the possibility of having large fleets of taxis and limos (Model S). There were several skeptics, who mentioned that taxis work in 2 or 3 shifts, and it will be impossible to have the battery range for the full shift, and it would take too much time to fully charge the battery between shifts.
Battery swap can solve the taxi problem. So the stations may be initially owned by taxi.limo companies for their fleet. Large fleets of Model S taxis/limos would be lots of advertising for Tesla.
I'm really curious to see how they spin this. I'm not much on random comments on Tesla articles, but I've seen some that echo my question, which is how do they do this without basically giving a back handed slap to their own super charger strategy?
I've heard all sorts of theories on the forum, so no need to echo them here again
. Tesla is obviously committed to the superchargers, so I'm very keen to hear Tesla's take on how swapping complements it rather than competing.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm really curious to see how they spin this. I'm not much on random comments on Tesla articles, but I've seen some that echo my question, which is how do they do this without basically giving a back handed slap to their own super charger strategy?
I've heard all sorts of theories on the forum, so no need to echo them here again
How does Tesla offer a Performance version of Model S without giving a back handed slap to the standard? Answer: you pay for the performance.
ShortSlaver
Member
Overall there is. It shows the dynamics of the car and if swapping became a standard not only in the USA but in China or other places, Tesla is ready for it.
It also gives the competition, which is already far behind, another target to shoot for.
Living in NYC, if I had a car I would be interested in the swapping option as a service or something. I buy the Model S and pay a contract for batteries which can be swapped out at various places around town, etc. Plugging in outside won't be an option here and most garages won't be outfitted for a Super Charger anytime soon.
Possibly this strategy starts to make more sense with the Gen 3 vehicle. For battery swapping and transportation as a service to work, there needs to be significant scale and we need to get comfortable with the idea that we don't own the batteries, but use them as part of a contract. Which I'm OK with if that's the contract from the start.
How is that even remotely an apples to apples comparison?
Might as well ask how a dairy sells both 2% and 1% milk...
Tesla has a captive market in the "quick refuel for Teslas" category. If all they had were battery swaps, that's what people would use. Both things are addressing the same core problem of "fast" refueling, they are competing solutions to the same problem. That's, again, why I'm curious how Tesla is going to sell/spin this.
If this is part of the G3 mass adoption answer, they why build out the SCs? Elon has stated he's going to travel cross country on the SCs and Tesla promotes them as time competitive with gas stations, so why build out battery swaps? Those are the answers, as an investor, that I'm looking for in the announcement.
There's got to be some very distinct use cases that Tesla sees each solving, not just the "impatient rich people can spend $50 on a swap". Plus, you have to add in some way to deal with who owns the battery, is the swap a temporary loan, what happens if the swapped battery is totaled in an accident, etc.
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Norse
Active Member
If I was a taxi owner in Norway, and I knew about the battery swap I would order a Model S(and X) instantly. Gas here cost alot more than in the US. And with all the space you can get there it would be perfect. I would not be surprised if the goverment even forced taxis to go electric. I cant see a reason why Norwegian taxi drivers will drive anything else than this in a couple of years, atleast in cityareas. I think taxis are mostly privately owned in Norway, and I think we will see ALOT of individual orders coming in now. I think the swap is made for Taxies, and not for the common man. I dont think analyst would consider this to much, but I think this is VERY GOOD NEWS!
Anyone else from Norway (or anywhere else) has an opinion about this?
Perhaps for people who... can afford a Tesla, don't drive much, and don't have a way to charge it in their homes.... like myself =(
Yea, that question came up, I think in the shareholder's Q&A and Tesla didn't mention battery swapping and that would have been a great opening to pimp this demo. Instead, they said the hope was that cities would start having curb side and other such public charging more widely available for urban dwellers in the future.
You're right, you've definitely got a need for a certain demographic, but the Q&A question was a great chance to hype the 20th demo if it was your demographic Tesla had in mind for swapping and they didn't do that.
deonb
Active Member
Agreed. He didn't even say "we're working on that".
Also if you look at the tone, at the time he was speaking about the Consumer Reports 100 number, and talking about getting the extra point he was all smiling and smirking and referring to "maybe there's something we can do about that", and you could see he was bursting to say something and held back. And then similar with his demeanor when answering the direct question of kevin99.
His answer to that the urban dweller question was much more subdued and he had to think about it. I did NOT get the impression that he had a response on the tip of his tongue that he tried covering up.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I'm also on the side that this announcement may be in coordination with taxi or livery companies, and is not for private owners--at least not initially.
Imagine: Airport shuttle/livery service. Tons of storage in the Model S. About 100-150 mile distance required on the high end. Do a few pickups, swap a battery, and keep on going. The taxi/shuttle service would own multiple batteries for a single car. Gas savings could be immense over time.
If true, this is a great approach and poses little to no risk for TM, but has a huge potential upside. FLEETS of Model S's sold all over the world for this service...perhaps at a volume discount.
Imagine: Airport shuttle/livery service. Tons of storage in the Model S. About 100-150 mile distance required on the high end. Do a few pickups, swap a battery, and keep on going. The taxi/shuttle service would own multiple batteries for a single car. Gas savings could be immense over time.
If true, this is a great approach and poses little to no risk for TM, but has a huge potential upside. FLEETS of Model S's sold all over the world for this service...perhaps at a volume discount.
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