Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[juan]

The Bloomberg article about the early consumer response in Hong Kong to the Model S might have helped the rally today.

Tesla Says Model S Orders May Double Hong Kong Electric Cars - Bloomberg

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

I would not minimize GB's efforts for the company. Also, from some email exchanges I have had with GB I do not feel he is going anywhere soon. Never asked, or felt it was my place to ask, the question directly but would be VERY surprised if he left. I think he wants to see the development of more stores through.

I can't blame him for taking some $$$ now. If I were in his position I would take it. His sale at $92 still gives him 'F U' money. only so much money you can spend in a lifetime or so many generations you can make financially safe.

I say good for him if he wants to take some profits. GB has done a lot of good for Tesla and I think he should enjoy some of the financial reward.

We also don't know the composition of his investment portfolio. Someone else mentioned that he might want to diversify his wealth (prudent IMO), or simply needs the cash for personal reasons. Unlikely that this has anything to do with the health of Tesla.

Anyways, I hope TSLA shareholders of all investment sizes are enjoying the run past 120 this week. It's good to see this company getting recognition for its success.

 

[mountaineer]

George has done at great job in TS. But he doesn't have much background in science & tech. so I guess he may not be able to fully understand the great advantage Tesla has over its much larger rivals

 

[vfx]

He could be in Europe and Asia, doing ownership events there. Don't read into the options exercise too much, we've been here before and it's all part of a predetermined financial structure.

BTW Johan, GB was at the Supercharger event. We talked with him there.

 

[Curt Renz]

The share price has gotten high enough to again consider a subsequent offering of new shares. If not now, then perhaps after the July 24[SUP]th[/SUP] earnings report if it boosts the price. More cash in the treasury could speed up production of Model S, installation of Supercharger stations, creation of stores & service centers, and introduction of new models. As was the case with the May offering, I’d expect the benefits to overcome dilution concerns and result in even higher share prices.

 

[FredTMC]

The share price has gotten high enough to again consider a subsequent offering of new shares. If not now, then perhaps after the July 24[SUP]th[/SUP] earnings report if it boosts the price. More cash in the treasury could speed up production of Model S, installation of Supercharger stations, creation of stores & service centers, and introduction of new models. As was the case with the May offering, I’d expect the benefits to overcome dilution concerns and result in even higher share prices.

Thanks Curt. Interesting, but seems awfully soon given that TM just raised 1B and Elon said they don't likely need more capital to get to Gen III production.

Also, are you certain earnings call is July 24th? I've seen no official announcement from TM.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks Curt. Interesting, but seems awfully soon given that TM just raised 1B and Elon said they don't likely need more capital to get to Gen III production.

Also, are you certain earnings call is July 24th? I've seen no official announcement from TM.

You may be right. I hope so. My OP was actually a message to Elon that at least one shareholder would not be upset if he were to consider another offering.

The report date is not official from Tesla Motors. It is the estimate from Nasdaq: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report Date - NASDAQ.com

 

[Johan]

BTW Johan, GB was at the Supercharger event. We talked with him there.

Good to hear! I hope he stays with Trsla for years to come. One of their biggest challenges will be getting sales and service right and it will be a hughe challenge if they kerp growing at this pace.

 

[DaveT]

Well guys, this past week took me a bit off guard. We closed last week at $107.36... some of us were thinking window dressing had pushed up the price some. I was thinking this week we'd see some dip but recover close to $110 by the end of the week.

But Monday morning TSLA got upgraded by Jefferies analyst Elaine Kwei with a price target of $130. TSLA closed 3 days above $115. And closed at $120 on Friday.

2Q earnings is coming up around July 24th. My guess is that it will be pretty volatile until then, but I have no idea in which direction.

Anybody else a bit nervous about this upcoming week?

 

[brianstorms]

Short term it'll go up some it'll go down some but in the long term all indications are that it'll go up a lot, which is what I focus on.

 

[DaveT]

Short term it'll go up some it'll go down some but in the long term all indications are that it'll go up a lot, which is what I focus on.

Agreed. But this is the short-term movements thread.

 

[brianstorms]

Friday's upward movement suggests a good week coming. Further into July, I would not be surprised if TSLA is already past $130 by the time the Q2 conference call happens. (I would also not be surprised if there's an Apple-style "sell on the news" the week of the Q2 announcement.)

 

[DaveT]

Friday's upward movement suggests a good week coming. Further into July, I would not be surprised if TSLA is already past $130 by the time the Q2 conference call happens. (I would also not be surprised if there's an Apple-style "sell on the news" the week of the Q2 announcement.)

Wow, it's hard to put my head around $130 prior to Q2 earnings. I'm still trying to accept that the stock closed at $120 and its only July. With each new closing high it takes some getting used to.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Wow, it's hard to put my head around $130 prior to Q2 earnings. I'm still trying to accept that the stock closed at $120 and its only July. With each new closing high it takes some getting used to.

There will be several more ATH closes in my opinion. That's what has been so great about this stock: you can pretty much count on it that once a new high is set and the stock dips for a little while, in a few weeks or months at most, that the high will be tested again. Unlike some other stocks where you may have to wait for years.

Also, I think the TESLIVE event between now and Q2 earnings may keep pushing the stock up. I have a feeling there will be some new relevations forthcoming from Elon at the event--perhaps unplanned. Knowing the TMC crowd, every word he speaks will be analyzed, and its meaning interpreted and debated from every angle. Unfortunately I won't be there, but will be closely following every bit of news from the event.

I sense a great run up for the stock for the next two weeks. :biggrin:

 

[Bobfitz1]

The share price has gotten high enough to again consider a subsequent offering of new shares. If not now, then perhaps after the July 24[SUP]th[/SUP] earnings report if it boosts the price. More cash in the treasury could speed up production of Model S, installation of Supercharger stations, creation of stores & service centers, and introduction of new models. As was the case with the May offering, I’d expect the benefits to overcome dilution concerns and result in even higher share prices.

I agree that another offering to increase cash reserves could be good for long term. I wonder if having more cash might allow Gen III to be ready sooner than 3 1/2 years out. Given that it will leverage much from Model S and Tesla now has an experienced engineering design team with MS in production and MX engineering largely done, why that many years for a company that works hard, smart and fast? My assumption so far is that they may be allowing time for the next gen Panasonic cells to be out of development and testing and available for mass production at time Gen III is ready for production. If more cash reserve could allow shaving 1/2 - 3/4 years off the current timeline, it would leave any potential competitors even less hope of ever catching up before Tesla totally dominates the affordable EV space.

 

[AlMc]

You may be right. I hope so. My OP was actually a message to Elon that at least one shareholder would not be upset if he were to consider another offering.

The report date is not official from Tesla Motors. It is the estimate from Nasdaq: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report Date - NASDAQ.com

So, Is anyone buying this week or holding to see what happens. Every time I 'hold', I wish I bought more 10-14 days later!

 

[kevin99]

Wow, it's hard to put my head around $130 prior to Q2 earnings. I'm still trying to accept that the stock closed at $120 and its only July. With each new closing high it takes some getting used to.

Dave, I would not complain when the stock exceed my expectation, unless I am scared that it will give up all the gain for sure. Even if I expect the giving-up-gain is almost likely to happen, I wouldn't take action on it because that is always a slight chance that the stock will again exceed my expectations.

But if you're talking about worrying the stock going below $100, then it is a different discussion.

the Key is that you play with different stock with different approach. TSLA is so different that keeping a core position is more important than anything else. I wouldn't play with Appl in the same way right now.

In that sense, the title of this thread " short-term movemen is not a good focus for TSLA.

 

[DaveT]

Dave, I would not complain when the stock exceed my expectation, unless I am scared that it will give up all the gain for sure. Even if I expect the giving-up-gain is almost likely to happen, I wouldn't take action on it because that is always a slight chance that the stock will again exceed my expectations.

But if you're talking about worrying the stock going below $100, then it is a different discussion.

the Key is that you play with different stock with different approach. TSLA is so different that keeping a core position is more important than anything else. I wouldn't play with Appl in the same way right now.

In that sense, the title of this thread " short-term movemen is not a good focus for TSLA.

Yep, no complaints about the current stock price. Just getting used to some new all-time highs. I'm having to bump up my own price targets for end of 2013 from $135-150 to $150-180.

 

[VaG]

Reading DaveT's post made me think about my sell orders... let me ask if this is a good strategy.

I have ten TSLA lots and I have "stop loss" orders on all of them... currently set to between $84 and $93. Most of these lots were purchased at prices well below this. So unless there is a massive drop in the stock outside normal hours, I have a pseudo guarantee of a certain (large) level of profits.

I modify these ten sell orders from time to time... mostly when the stock rises to all-time highs. It's my intention to keep the top sell order limit to 85% of the all-time high. This way I am allowing for 15% volatility. If the stock falls a bit, I leave them as they are; so far none of them have triggered because the stock price recovers. However, if after several down days the stock falls to (say) 20% below its all-time high, then one or two of my sell orders will trigger, taking some profits off the table but not abandoning the stock altogether (since maybe it is just one more large swing downwards before another miraculous recovery).

So given the $120 currently I would modify my ten lots to sell at $93 thru $102. (which I am about to do)

If the stock rises on Monday to (say) $122 - even intraday - I could modify them to sell at $95 thru $104.

Any time the stock falls, I hold my orders as they are - but if the stock rises, I adjust them upwards.

Does this sound conservative enough and yet still focused on effectively taking reasonable profit?

(BTW I understand our nightmare scenario: if, heaven forbid, a catastrophic event occurs for TSLA outside trading hours, and the stock opens much much lower, below all of my stop loss orders, all of my lots will trade more or less immediately at the new low price - and not even at my stop limits)

 

[mrdoubleb]

So, Is anyone buying this week or holding to see what happens. Every time I 'hold', I wish I bought more 10-14 days later!

I feel you... I just became a Tesla shareholder. I've been following the company for 1-2 years now, drooling over the car, knowing every little detail. Reading-watching all of Elon's interviews, reading the forums, the little bits of "inside info" and educated guesses by other fans, I always felt like all those analysts were wrong, but i never bought stock. I didn't do stocks in general.

So I bit the bullet last week, joined the club @118 USD, but there isn't a day going by when i don't wish i wasn't such a chicken back in March when I first thought about buying stock. You see it's not that i did not by TSLA because i was clueless or believed the naysayers. No, it's worse: i knew Elon/Tesla will prove everyone wrong, i was just scared of putting my money on the stock market.

Anyway... I am glad i finally joined, even if I missed out on the 3x growth. I still think Q2 will over deliver, we will have another jump (not 35->100, but a jump) and when they, again, under promise and over deliver on X and Gen3, I will be so glad i did join the club in the end.