Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[aznt1217]

I don't know. I'm a little less scared of this lockup because it was not an IPO. I feel like the funds that got involved in the secondary were probably more long-term oriented. That said, lockups do generally make me nervous, and can become a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm looking hard at how I'm positioned right now. Considering getting defensive for the rest of the week.

As am I, but SCTY's lock up expiration wasn't too bad. It took a while to feel the effects and it got pummeled after SPWR did. If they got in at the secondary their tax rates would be extremely unfavorable as well.

I'm holding off for tomorrow and am going to see how things react some of the best/worst decisions are made in the last 30 minutes of close.

 

[johnnydop]

TSLA debate on CNBC right now.

"Technical" side of argument says its going higher, has the classic look of a super growth stock.

"Fundamental" side also said its going higher not only because of incrceased sales but also because of sales of parts.

 

[mershaw2001]

Ok I'm starting to get a better feeling about today, if it ends above 146 I'll be happy, though down a lot of money. Right now I'm starting to think that with all the buying at 142 it's like Admiral Ackbar yelling "It's a trap!" to the shorts. They had a good run at it today. I see a bunch of non-events for the rest of the week, hyperloop, lock up expiration. The only thing that I think matters is firms claiming that this is going to drop drastically. The claim of overvalued has no impact, it's just the fear of losing 30% of your investment that causes anyone to flinch.

 

[kevin99]

I hope it did go further enough 2 minutes ago at $142. Now it is reversing to the other direction!? Have to give some respect to the market and admit we don't know all the forces at work.

Looks like I did call the bottom at @142:

 

[sleepyhead]

TSLA lockup expiration will only increase float by about 4%, while Solarcity's lockup expiration increased float by a lot larger amount (can't remember exactly, but wasn't is like a few hundred %?). Big difference

 

[Citizen-T]

TSLA lockup expiration will only increase float by about 4%, while Solarcity's lockup expiration increased float by a lot larger amount (can't remember exactly, but wasn't is like a few hundred %?). Big difference

Good point.

 

[aznt1217]

TSLA lockup expiration will only increase float by about 4%, while Solarcity's lockup expiration increased float by a lot larger amount (can't remember exactly, but wasn't is like a few hundred %?). Big difference

This is true. Wed/Thursday is also a few days after both investor conferences. Interesting timing, I think big money will see an opp. to go in for long term.

Thank you to the TSLA Addict Support Group/Braintrust (Depending on how you see it) for the continued value added information lol

 

[Mr. Farmer]

Looks like the day traders were short today.

 

[sleepyhead]

Looks like the day traders were short today.

Yes, and now the smart ones are covering and getting out while still ahead. Tomorrow will be another interesting day.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Not sure if this was mentioned before but...

if we were to look at the liabilities section of the books, currently tesla has $133,716,000 in customer deposits IE x $5,000 per car = rough est. 26,000 orders...

That number has only gone down by $5Mil since 12/31/2012 as well...

You have to take out 500 Sigs for Europe (30,000 euro each), about 4,000-5,000 other cars for Europe (4,000 euro each), Sigs for Asia, other cars for Asia, a few hundred RHD and about 6,000 Model X, including several hundred Sigs. Anyone feel like calculating how many that leaves?

 

[borat99]

Found out why the stock was really down today:

Ashton Kutcher buys TSLA

Nothing's wrong with Kutcher buying TSLA. He is quite a decent guy. Ashton Kutcher reveals his first name and wins teen choice awards 2013 - YouTube

 

[Jhall118]

Oh, I was just teasing.

 

[Discoducky]

I couldn't get a connection to buy more when TSLA was down $10....bummer!

 

[Mr. Farmer]

Yes, and now the smart ones are covering and getting out while still ahead. Tomorrow will be another interesting day.

Well you know I'd hate to see any of the next 4 be boring

 

[Daniel Scherer]

I could have gained 20 shares today if I had read the stock movement better and been more patient but I did gain 7 shares so that's not too bad. Tomorrow will be interesting. I expect the Tuesday shuffle to happen again.

 

[Acmykguy]

Hi Sub,

My story is somewhat similar to yours.. I am also a big BMW fan. Own two of them among some other brands. As soon as I drove the S this year, I put in a large sum of money into TSLA for the long term. Am looking to add more shares is various ways. Also convinced two of my family members to purchase TSLA as well. I am planning to buy a Model S when TSLA hits a certain price, just not yet, to keep fiscal discipline. Am having trouble ditching even some of my existing ICE cars as I've grown attached to them. I want to use the proceeds of the car sales to buy more TSLA, as one way of buying up more shares, which I know is the smart thing to do, but something is keeping me from pulling the trigger... I think it is "enjoy what you have now and don't get too hopeful or greedy"... Anybody else having to deal with a similar situation?

And tomorrow you can be hit by a truck..... Pull the trigger...enjoy the best car out there and live!

 

[kevin99]

Is Tesla overheated?Talking Numbers CNBC video

I haven't see such a bullish statement from the Wall St. Pro. Time to pause and think how did they get it finally?

"$17 billion market cap is a joke.... even if it triples, it is still cheap....(compare to Facebook $90 something billions)"

 

[CyberDutchie]

Hyperloop announcement and related press today came just in time, to turn the negative sentiment around. I've never seen such a barrage of negativity on Tesla in such a short time, just look at some of the post-earnings articles on Seeking Alpha:

No Significant Upside In Tesla Motors by Harlan Kessler
Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash by Ashraf Eassa
5 Troubling Takeaways From Tesla's Second Quarter by Odysseus
Is Tesla's Drive Out Of Energy? by Matthew Levy
Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale by John Petersen

 

[DaveT]

I was reading this paper on short interest, though most of it was technical and over my head, I found the main findings interesting. Here's a bit from the conclusion: (from page 27)

"The main finding of the paper is that as the stock price goes up, the fraction of the population who shorts the stock increases but the short interest remains constant. This is because when the stock price increases two effects occur simultaneously, the substitution and the wealth-share effects. The latter effect is dominant for relatively more pessimistic short sellers hence they scale back their short positions resulting with less demand for shorting. The opposite is true for the relatively less pessimistic short sellers, hence they increase their shorting demand. There is also new additional shorting demand coming from previously long investors because they also perceive the stock overvalued now due to the increased price. The fewer shorting demand from more pessimistic short sellers is exactly offset by the extra shorting demand from both new andless pessimistic short sellers. This leads to short interest not varying with the stock price. We also find that only the second moment variables, i.e. the dispersion of beliefs, the volatilityof the stock and the quality of information, determine the short interest level."

Basically, if I were to summarize:
1. As the price gets higher, short interest stays the same.
2. Reason being is that the higher price attracts new shorts (ie., less committed shorts increase position, and weak longs switch position).
3. What actually determines the short interest level is what they're calling second moment variables like dispersion of beliefs, volatility and quality of info.

For #3, how I'm taking "dispersion of beliefs" is when there's a wide range of beliefs (ie., people who love or hate the company, or people think it's super overvalued or super undervalued), this is one of the factors that can lead to a high short interest. Volatility is another. The other example is quality of info (ie., having lots of good and bad info out there can lead people to difference conclusions). So, when these factors start to change and people's opinions converge (ie., less dispersion of beliefs), then short interest tapers.

So, the question is what does this mean for TSLA's short interest? Is there still a wide range of beliefs regarding the company? Or are the beliefs converging?

 

[maekuz]

Banzai! Thanks to the Nikkei all futures turning green.

And please, stop it with all this HyperHoopla (Thanks DaveT, that made me chuckle).