Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The drop today was probably prompted by the Bank of America downgrade. Bank of America claims its $40 price target is based on on a 2015 EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x. I found this chart on some website a while ago that shows Morgan Stanley's valuation based on the same thing, yet they have very different figures.

 

[rcc]

I agree with ML about the execution challenges but I think they're off on forecasting demand. They seem to think of the Model S as an luxury electric car - a dressed up LEAF. Not a world-beating car that happens to be electric. Makes me wonder if they've driven the car. Or understand the battery pack technology behind it.

 

[fjm9898]

ya i think everyone's money tree is bare which is why the stock has no support.

 

[AlMc]

Many people/institutions are taking profits of the table and a lot of stop loss order triggers going on here. We have had many good days and will have better ones in the future. The last few are days that the 'shorts' can call their own.

 

[yngwie_2012]

ya i think everyone's money tree is bare which is why the stock has no support.

Big resistance @162 fell

 

[austinEV]

Once we broke the 50 day this morning I completely capitulated and liquidated everything stock and options. I am sitting on some puts in fact. I am sorry to say I think TSLA needs to find some new support level. Feels like 160.

Note: this means the stock will probably launch up from here so that I lose money on both sides of the drop Consider this the austinEV contrarian play: buy,buy!

 

[yngwie_2012]

unbelievable selling pressure today..

 

[FredTMC]

the press release about germany seems to habe ZERO effect on the stock behaviour today...FUNNY

Takes a while for media to write about it.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Takes a while for media to write about it.

i already seen it covered in multiple sources still no effect

 

[justthateasy]

Where is the bottom? TSLA hasn't stopped hitting a new intraday low for the last 45 minutes or so. I didn't think we would be seeing these price levels again unless Tesla itself came out with bad news.

 

[fjm9898]

this is a fall i dont think anything that was already known is going to stop...
we break 160 guys, i am going to be getting scared.

 

[dmckinstry]

Overall if you stay with TSLA all the way till now, even after this correction, you are better off than getting out and in, if you don't play the short term options.

I am pretty optimistic in the longer term, TSLA is fine. When friends asked me when to buy, I always told them the stock is not cheap, but if they can hold it for 6 months then they should be fine.

My hindsight is great. If only I had sold last week I'd have enough to buy back 10-15% more now. But, I'm too chicken, and ultimately better off for it.

If the stock drops to $70 and never goes back up, I'd still have my original investment and my Tesla.

 

[RobotGrease]

looks like the red channel it is... broke through the orange channel. See the vertical blue line at 11/5 Earnings Release. We could go as low as ~$155 by then. At this point, after reading all the Q3 predictions, Im not optimistic about a blow out ER anymore either.

On second thought, $155 might happen even today.

 

[yngwie_2012]

looks like the red channel it is... broke through the orange channel. See the vertical blue line at 11/5 Earnings Release. We could go as low as ~$155 by then. At this point, after reading all the Q3 predictions, Im not optimistic about a blow out ER anymore either.

On second thought, $155 might happen even today.

the only thing i hate about the tesla stock behaviour is days like this. without any real reason its dropping like fool

 

[brianstorms]

The Merrill Lynch analyst has a history of TSLA bashing.

He was bashing the stock in February. He gave the stock a $39 target price. As of July -- July 2013! -- he was still maintaining a $39 target price. His complaints are FUD. I think he is either truly misinformed, truly stupid, or being incented to put downward pressure on the stock.

The main thing is, the fundamentals of the company are strong, things have never looked better, we are still at the very beginning. We will be past $200/share soon, I have no doubt.

I am holding for the very long term ($1000/share, for the win!) and am even thinking of buying some more.

 

[ckessel]

Well, good news. The amount of profit I'd have to declare on selling my long TSLA earlier is rapidly approaching zero.

Somewhat on topic. Even if the bleeding stopped right now, does anyone realistically think there'd be much of any chance of returning to the ATH by year's end, much less as a result of Q3?

 

[techmaven]

This is likely a repeat of the mid July opportunity.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Morgan Stanley came out with their Q3 preview alert today, titled: "a time to chill". No change in price target (stays at $149) and a slight uptick in deliveries forecasted for Q3 (from 5000 to 5200). Overall the note is pretty solid.

Included in full this time:

For perhaps the first time in its young history, we expect TSLA’s 3Q earnings will be a catalyst for stability instead of volatility. While expectations remain high, we think that TSLA is on track to achieve a 25% GM by 4Q and that supply constraints may limit potential for volume surprise.

TSLA’s earnings have historically served as important catalysts as the company was tasked with the burden of proof on Model S success and liquidity, with investors rarely looking beyond the next quarter. While the stock remains as divisive as ever, we think TSLA will do just enough in 3Q to satisfy bulls and keep the stock stable into the new year.

Key things to look for in 3Q13. Language from the Model S fire press release suggests a confident development of order intake and we expect early feedback from TSLA’s EU roll-out of the Model S to be positive. From a delivery standpoint, we expect 5,200 units vs. guidance of 'slightly over 5,000 deliveries'. The blog-troving 'VIN counters' trying to predict Tesla's deliveries intra-quarter will be put to the test when Tesla reports sales, as supply constraints may limit the potential for volume surprise. Most important, we expect TSLA to show convincing progress to its 25% gross margin target by 4Q13 and believe cons. has fully caught up to, if not surpassed, 25% as a base case.

Updating our model for the impact of lease accounting. While our fundamental view on TSLA remains little changed heading into 3Q, we have updated our model to bring our estimates in-line with the company’s new reporting structure. Our new model separates the impact of TSLA’s lease accounting and bridges between its GAAP and Non-GAAP results. Excluding the impact of lease accounting (but incl. stock compensation), our 3Q13 EPS changes from a $0.35 loss to a positive $0.02, with FY2014 changing from $1.36 to $1.95.

 

[justthateasy]

TSLA has been hovering around 160.30-160.60 and nothing but sideways movement. This looks like a sign of consolidation. I think the bottom might have been hit.

 

[kevin99]

Ouch, already at $160! the price I think should hold. I do see $160 is a much more solid level than any previous one. And basically we are back to the high after Q2. It may breach a few points, but $160 should be solid.

Forget about ML, and BA. They are just trying to save some faces. Jokes are still jokes. Some got to lose their jobs for it.

Come to think of it, what are the real development in Q3 warrants TSLA to shot straight to $194? Other than some bullish upgrade here and there, there isn't much material development.

So it seems the hot air finally is gone. The company is still solid. Many of us view this as a stock of life time, stock of decade, stock of 100X, 50X, 20X, whatever. If you stay true to those, it needs years to play out. It can't keep going up nonstop to $500 and game is over, there is no room to go.