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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Many of the high fliers dived today LNKD, NFLX, SCTY. TSLA in slightly worse position I think due to "valuation call"...
It's kind of odd, it was over 177 in after hours yesterday. Maybe there was an interview or something that hasn't hit the front pages yet?
I was happy this morning at the opening of the market seeing my call in the green. Then the dive came, I was like wtf. It looks like people were just dumping TSLA probably because piling on of the negative articles. The NHTSA decision was probably leaked yesterday night, bringing TSLA up in the $177, but I guess that doesn't do much to the stock today.
Not that great a day so far. JASO just above 10 today; all your solar stocks are taking a beating right along with TSLA.
My approach of a small cap emerging sector (like solar) is with relatively smaller amounts of $ until profitability is reached or is in the near horizon. After that I am willing to dump much larger amounts of cash. That is what I did with TSLA. The "risk-reward" in solar is still too high for me to invert my investment dollars between TSLA and Solar. I am still very bullish on TSLA in the medium term (6 months), but with an eye on Solar.
kevin99
Member
Similar thinking from my side. Even if I put more on Solar, I can't put much more capital on it as they are more speculative. If I don't put more, then the return from it is trivial even if the underlying stock gain 100%. Besides, the only solar I am familiar, or with first hand experience is SolarCity. Every stock requires a lot of research.
As long as I manage TSLA well, in up and down time, the return will out weight any other opportunity.
They are talking about dropping the California tax credits, that's probably part of it.
Apparently Elon is trying to be honest, but does he really know what is the proper share price? He seems to be applying the same metrics as the fundamental analysts who only know how to look a year or two forward. It becomes an injustice to shareholders for Elon to say publicly that the current share price is more than we deserve. That becomes the headline, and the follow-up regarding it becoming well deserved in the future is lost. If he expects the stock to be worth considerably more in the future, then today’s price is deserved. When a reporter asks him about valuation, I’d suggest that he quite honestly say, “The market appears to understand what our company intends to be accomplishing five years from now, and we are working very hard to justify that confidence.”
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
This could have something to do with it:
Elon Musk Warns About Tesla's Stock Price
I love Elon and all, but wish he'd pipe down a bit about this.
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Curt, you beat me to it--and it's much better said from someone who has a clue about the financial sector, unlike me
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Elon Musk Warns About Tesla's Stock Price
I love Elon and all, but wish he'd pipe down a bit about this.
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Curt, you beat me to it--and it's much better said from someone who has a clue about the financial sector, unlike me
.Yes. It also depends on the gains one has made and the overall size of their portfolio in TSLA. A 20% to 30% increase in TSLA from these levels can make a huge difference $ wise for an investor with an already "large" portfolio so risk-reward may be better for those individuals to stay in TSLA. For those with smaller portfolios in TSLA, risk-reward may be better in Solar.
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Farzy, what Curt has in quotations is what I was trying to have you suggest to Elon on Twitter, as I thought you and Elon had a few exchanges there.. Our forum inputs can make a difference, however small it may be.
Krugerrand
Meow
Your statement is essentially what he said, but said in a way that prevents the media from bending it to their will. My problem is that he shouldn't have to guard his words in this manner, trying to out-maneuver the media, whose job it is to report findings truthfully and in context. I have a real issue with people not doing their jobs properly and in essence being mean-spirited, making others have to watch their words and actions to protect themselves and those around them from this kind of slimy outcome. The onus, imo, is not Elon Musk, it's on the media members who pull stunts like this.
kevin99
Member
Yes I am serious too. I am reaching out to them.
Meanwhile, since Julian's article is a direct rebuttal to Prof. Damodaran's valuation thesis, which get highlighted in many media outlet like this:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-is-way-overvalued/
It is only reasonably fair that Julian's piece also get the similar exposure. So if you can reach out to any media and suggest doing a highlight in similar manner, it will support everyone here.
Perhaps Elon doesn't want the price to go up as fast as it has this year because he knows this rate of this year is not sustainable and he wants all of his new employees they're hiring to be able to partake in some of these riches. Employees are likely granted stock options at the end of each year, but the higher the stock price the less shares each employee gets each year cutting into their future ultimate wealth. If TSLA were 100 right now but still ultimately would reach 1000 per share in 5-10 years then those employees would get twice as rich in that time and perhaps twice as motivated to do their employer good along the way vs. the stock being at 200 per share nowadays then going to 1000.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm sure he is just being Elon and speaking exactly what he thinks. But hey, even Elon can be wrong.
Yes I am serious too. I am reaching out to them.
Meanwhile, since Julian's article is a direct rebuttal to Prof. Damodaran's valuation thesis, which get highlighted in many media outlet like this:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-is-way-overvalued/
It is only reasonably fair that Julian's piece also get the similar exposure. So if you can reach out to any media and suggest doing a highlight in similar manner, it will support everyone here.
Will do. I'll see who I know here in Southern California. Any Southern California forum members free to PM me if you have suggestions
This just came out from Barron's talking about Elon's stock price comments overshadowing NHSTA dropping fire investigation:
Tesla Drops 3% as Elon Musk Talks Down Shares - Stocks To Watch - Barrons.com
Kevin, I think that this is a general risk-off trade in the markets happening right now. All of the high flyer stocks are selling off for no apparent reason other than a short-term sentiment change.
I am buying up different options at these levels; I am ready to buy more on Monday if this keeps going down. But every time you wait for a pullback to buy in and then when you finally get one, people tend to get greedy and then wait for it to go down even more. I don't wait for that second potential pullback on Monday. I buy in on the first one like today or yesterday.
Shake out all of the weak longs and then we are poised for a run up.
I even bought some TSLA Oct. $170's just a few minutes ago. I am banking on a strong finish to this day and week. IMO if people were waiting on the sidelines to get in, they are going to want to buy now that TSLA is weak. I wouldn't be waiting till Monday because a lot can change over the weekend. That is my theory at least and that is why I expect a strong finish in the last two hours.
Since it has been a down week for TSLA, there is no profit taking. I think it is time to position yourself for next week in case TSLA starts going up.
Just my opinion on short-term movements. But if the market sentiment goes into risk-off mode again next week, then I am prepared to buy more.
Gotcha - I highly doubt a tweet from me would do anything at all. Elon loves to tweet and he probably saw one of my tweets at the top and decided to respond to it. I'm sure he gets flooded constantly.
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