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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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RationalOptimist
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My take of the past couple weeks is that there's been a growing realization that the VIN-based analysis is probably faulty. The engine driving the stock into the 190s was the belief there might be a spectacular earnings blowout based on VIN numbers (and other sources) suggesting weekly production rising to 700+ and therefore quarterly sales of 7k+ cars. As well as people here, several articles were published hinting at this. In the last couple weeks the VIN number trends have moved backward, and there's been a consensus opinion shift back much closer to where the company had guided. Viewed that way, there hasn't been much material news since Q2 earnings (when the stock popped to 150-ish) other than a couple of vehicle fires, and therefore, the current stock price has a certain rationality to it, or at least, the same rationale in evidence immediately post Q2.
A lot depends on what is released -- and said -- next week.
A lot depends on what is released -- and said -- next week.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Norse
Active Member
Krugerrand
Meow
Actually, I recall it being quite a big deal when it was said several weeks ago and got flogged all over by the media. That's why I find it so interesting that many had already forgotten he said it way back when, long before TSLA hit its all time high.
I see no reason for him to change his answer simply because it's now 'quiet' time. If he does that, then rest assured someone's going to come along and claim he's now lying/has lied/changed his tune/can't make up his mind, etc... It's not his fault people have a hard time controlling their rabid instincts to be jerk offs.
Ya the NASDAQ took another down turn and pushed TSLA through it.
I am going to hold my Puts and see what tomorrow brings. see if we bounce of $160 again of if AAPL drive the market north and bring Tesla with it.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
I've averaged mine down to about $6 now. Obviously I still need a double from here to get back to even. I can't bring myself to drop them at this point, but I also don't have any cash left to average them down again.
In with Nov $180. Today's drop is no good, but lets see if AAPL can get the bulls moving again
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well I used the fact that lower strikes have higher deltas and therefore drop faster today assuming this is probably close to the bottom and replaced my higher strike calls with fewer lower strike ones. Moved Nov $190's to $170s, Moved Dec $190's to $175's and March $200's to $180's. All-in-all I added some $350 to the pot, but was able to bring my average strike down significantly. Now I know I lost some delta exposure because 3x 0.5 is smaller than 6x 0.3, but not by much and I'm now very close to ATM strikes therefore if there is a recovery and we get to ca $170-175 range by earnings it's not hard to see myself being close to green and if the post-ER pop is even just $10-15 to $185-190 range, then I'm already golden. I think that's a better strategy than averaging down on the high strike calls now that we're getting closer to their expiration.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I'm really annoyed about todays behaviour of the stock.
At one side, I think the market is overreacting on tesla again. After the great news about germany and uk, i was expecting the stock rather to climb to $175-$180. All these good news were ignored.
And today this idiotic situation with the fire. Bad timing!! We all know, that could happen also to any other car, but nobody would care. Only if its a TESLA! I know this sounds paranoid but sometimes i cant keep myself of thinking whether these tesla fires (bought by dark forces) are scripted and the owners get paid by these dark forces
Really annoying situation b4 ER.
At one side, I think the market is overreacting on tesla again. After the great news about germany and uk, i was expecting the stock rather to climb to $175-$180. All these good news were ignored.
And today this idiotic situation with the fire. Bad timing!! We all know, that could happen also to any other car, but nobody would care. Only if its a TESLA! I know this sounds paranoid but sometimes i cant keep myself of thinking whether these tesla fires (bought by dark forces) are scripted and the owners get paid by these dark forces
Really annoying situation b4 ER.
Finally we are getting some backup. This article was long overdue...
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Why Tesla Fire Stories Are A Farce - Seeking Alpha
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Why Tesla Fire Stories Are A Farce - Seeking Alpha
For what it's worth, mine are are at about $10 and it was tough to see that much red today. I contemplating averaging down, but there's just to much noise swirling around these days and the stock has been reacting to short term isolated incidents that are hampering the ability of the fundamentals to shine. That however, is the the cost of short term option plays.
At this point, I will sell them after earnings for salvage value and chalk it up to a capital loss. I'd still like to see a blowout, but numerous posts have done a good job of debunking the VIN myth and it looks like it's going to come down to cashflow and guidance.
It is nice to see a positive story from SA concerning TESLA. However, the stock was doing better when they wrote negative articles. At the same time a couple positive stories come out from SA the stock is going down......... strange:wink:
PS...Meant to be funny/strange......I am not a conspiracy theorist
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
After hours trade of TSLA seems to react to Apple drop from their lowered margins guidance. TSLA was slowly creeping up AH to $163.2 and the moment Apple earnings hit and the stock swung up and then down hard TSLA started to drop as well, down to $162.1. We'll see what Apple does tomorrow, but I can't even fully decide which is the good and which is the bad option. Consider the following:
1) Investors decide that 0.4% lower margin guidance is not that bad after hearing more details on the conf call and Apple recovers and starts a slow gain march tomorrow. People pull money from elsewhere and send it more to Apple to take advantage of this upwards movement. Nasdaq is pulled to the green and other stocks with it unless they're dumped to get money to Apple.
2) Apple doesn't fix this crap with the earnings call and the stock keeps dropping. Big money pulls some funds out of Apple to take some of the profits on the table from recent runup and not so great guidance sending Apple and Nasdaq to the red. However they start to pile that money to other interesting stocks approaching earnings. Might show a nice inflow of cash to TSLA that is bouncing around the support in low $160s.
Can't really say which scenario is more positive for TSLA
Might even be that money coming out of Apple and going to TSLA in preparation for TSLA earnings might be the better option.
1) Investors decide that 0.4% lower margin guidance is not that bad after hearing more details on the conf call and Apple recovers and starts a slow gain march tomorrow. People pull money from elsewhere and send it more to Apple to take advantage of this upwards movement. Nasdaq is pulled to the green and other stocks with it unless they're dumped to get money to Apple.
2) Apple doesn't fix this crap with the earnings call and the stock keeps dropping. Big money pulls some funds out of Apple to take some of the profits on the table from recent runup and not so great guidance sending Apple and Nasdaq to the red. However they start to pile that money to other interesting stocks approaching earnings. Might show a nice inflow of cash to TSLA that is bouncing around the support in low $160s.
Can't really say which scenario is more positive for TSLA
Might even be that money coming out of Apple and going to TSLA in preparation for TSLA earnings might be the better option.- Status
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