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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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pretty much in line with my, i really dont have a clue, haha
With the strong rally throughout the day i am thinking positive day tomorrow.

On your hammer pic it looks like all the MA's are converging. Breaking $174 would pop us over all of them. That would be a nice bull rush. Trick is clearing all the resistance those MAs are going to create.
 
We are not out of the woods yet. Either TSLA goes up big tomorrow, taking out the 20-day SMA/EMA (which are about to cross over with the 50-day), and then we set up for a rally for the rest of the week, or we continue this head and shoulders formation that has been in the works, and crash post-earnings... The stock is still within the down-channel (previously referenced) and now well below the upward-channel... We definitely have more downward pressure and volatile days like today ahead of us.
 
Agreed. With LNKD and Yelp both falling short i hope to see some of that money moves into FB and Tesla as they are the last of the big "momos" left to report. If we get good up movement all those MAs are right in arm's length and breaking one could push us into the next one. But like i said the trick is getting through them as they will all probably be heavy resistance points.
 
CNBC just interviewed the Baird analyst who downgraded to neutral when we were at $190. He mentioned that there are whisper numbers of deliveries in the 6-7k (wonder where he got that from) which are ridiculous and he thinks 5,300-5,500 is more practical. Most of his answers about the recent moves and his price target of $187 were that it's going to depend on Q3. Guessing there are lots of other firms out there also waiting on Q3 numbers and that's why we haven't had a run up.
 
i just got an email about an official tesla road trip starting tomorrow in san diego to celebrate the fact that tesla has now connected the entire west coast with superchargers that allow you to drive from san diego to vancouver for free

there are supercharger ribbon cutting ceremonies at four superchargers along the way: i) corning, california, ii) mt. shasta, ca, iii) grants pass, oregon and iv) springfield, oregon. and finally there will be a road trip finish line celebration in seattle on sunday, november 3rd.

hopefully this event will attract some media attention and help generate some momentum for the stock for the remainder of the week.

surfside
 
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Yes here it is: the west coast corridor!
juge5eby.jpg

I think this could be a big factor. The supercharger Network is starting to show game changing network effect.
 
I got one of these too. Kind of amusing in a way. Almost zero notice -- who has all this free time to get out on the road for a 2000mile road trip with no advance planning? I look forward to doing this drive but not this week. SF Bay area soon enough, but Seattle/Portland is gonna require lots of planning.
 
I got one of these too. Kind of amusing in a way. Almost zero notice -- who has all this free time to get out on the road for a 2000mile road trip with no advance planning? I look forward to doing this drive but not this week. SF Bay area soon enough, but Seattle/Portland is gonna require lots of planning.

It would not be pretty if 50+ cars rolled in to a SC at the same time. I speculate short notice is to keep the numbers low on purpose.
 
Thoughts on tomorrow? Wish I had cash available today but didn't, tomorrow I will ....

It seems like the morning is frequently shorted and it ends up higher. I'm planning on buying the morning dip if there is one, I think we are seeing a turn around based on
1) we have hit 155 or below, the target of people who wanted to get back in.
2) we have a nice hammer formation
3) the reversal today was really, really powerful.
4) Volume today was high on the reversal

I say open at 162 and end at 167.
 
We are getting a short term W pattern, bouncing off RSI bottom and the hammer candle I've been wishing for. Preparing bullish mode.

pretty much in line with my, i really dont have a clue, haha
With the strong rally throughout the day i am thinking positive day tomorrow.

On your hammer pic it looks like all the MA's are converging. Breaking $174 would pop us over all of them. That would be a nice bull rush. Trick is clearing all the resistance those MAs are going to create.


Bullish but not too bullish gentlemen. We don't want to be too high (in the 180s) going into earnings because of what hershey has pointed out:


We are not out of the woods yet. Either TSLA goes up big tomorrow, taking out the 20-day SMA/EMA (which are about to cross over with the 50-day), and then we set up for a rally for the rest of the week, or we continue this head and shoulders formation that has been in the works, and crash post-earnings... The stock is still within the down-channel (previously referenced) and now well below the upward-channel... We definitely have more downward pressure and volatile days like today ahead of us.


However, I don't think going up too big too soon is good going into earnings as the post-earnings expectation might be baked into the price leading up to earnings which may cause a crash if Tesla doesn't meet the street's expectations. Referencing AAPL here.

Perhaps we see the high 170s by Friday but if we're in the 180s Tuesday before the close, be cautious.
 
Bullish but not too bullish gentlemen. We don't want to be too high (in the 180s) going into earnings because of what hershey has pointed out:





However, I don't think going up too big too soon is good going into earnings as the post-earnings expectation might be baked into the price leading up to earnings which may cause a crash if Tesla doesn't meet the street's expectations. Referencing AAPL here.

Perhaps we see the high 170s by Friday but if we're in the 180s Tuesday before the close, be cautious.

I haven't seen any evidence yet that Tesla will not meet estimates. But if they up their guidance to 25K cars for this year and then guide for 35k next year, market will not look at that positively. I won't either. The stock has dialed in a higher rate of growth than that. I would rather have them guide to a larger (45K +) but realistic number and then beat by a decent margin (60k +). Low guidance for deep into 2014 can have an adverse negative impact on the stock at this point, IMO.
 
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