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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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This should provide some boost today:

PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

No mention of what kind of weekly production numbers it enables, but it's 2B cells over the course of four years. 2B cells at 7k cells / car would give 285714 cars!

The Cavalcade Of Stars begins, one week before the earnings release. I believe this to be the first of many news items deliberately coming out to help folks who want the stock to go up. (up 1.39% now in premarket)

Here is a very rough napkin calculation: while they don't say exactly how many batteries, let's say it's 1,950,000,000 batteries over the next four years. If there are 7,000 in each car (assuming all of them are 85KWh) that translates to 279,000 cars over 4 years. Even more cars, if you build some 60KWh batteries. Nice!

Just to add to the back of the napkin calculations here, the 7,000 cells is for an 85kWh battery. Assuming that half of the future cars will be for 60kWh which is 70% the size of the 85 (an presumably 70% of the batteries) then they could produce about 50k more cars. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about the number of batteries in a 60Kwh.

Of course the price is down to 162.80 as of right now so I guess the market doesn't seem to care much about this news.
 
I give up. If the stock isn't even going to go green on news that TSLA has secured battery supply to quintuple production in 4 years time...then how the hell am I supposed to trade this? Going to just sit on my hands until after earnings.

Feel your frustration. I put in buy order in the high 150s. Otherwise I am waiting for earnings also, although it will be 'too late' one way or the other at that time. I do believe the 'big boys' are sitting it out. They do not want to be caught with a big dip loss so they are waiting for ER. If they get a great ER/guidance they will jump in asap and catch it on the rise. If ER is what everyone is expecting on the street then they will continue to lay low and look at other places to put their client's money.
 
"Tesla is in talks with Samsung, LG, and other manufacturers, and will continue to discuss future supply with them and to evaluate their technology,"

Cell prices will fall fast once all these guys start competing and start signing contracts and TSLA will rise fast :)

Yes i see them making a switch to that supply if their tech is better. but that could be some time down the road. Locking in the deal with Panasonic for that large ammount means we are probably not going to see anything from the other two unless there is a big tech change.

Any what the hell down to 161s now.... this is unreal, there just arent any buyers.
 
I give up. If the stock isn't even going to go green on news that TSLA has secured battery supply to quintuple production in 4 years time...then how the hell am I supposed to trade this? Going to just sit on my hands until after earnings.

tesla gain 7% since the deal was signed it was 153 and went to 164 yesterday, confirmation to news is an old news and not worth anymore.
"buy the rumor sell the news"

what you thought was yesterday comeback? someone fall in love with tesla all of a sudden?
 
I give up. If the stock isn't even going to go green on news that TSLA has secured battery supply to quintuple production in 4 years time...then how the hell am I supposed to trade this? Going to just sit on my hands until after earnings.

I thought it was going to react positively as well, but you and I know well enough that the market is irrational. This is one of those cases. Had this news been released in a week after earnings, it would have served as a driver for another run up. In addition to that we need to factor in FB today. Many investors (small+big money) will be playing that today.

Truly smart bulls already knew about this news when Elon talked about battery capacity in Germany. It's a mix of a few things:

- Was it priced in already (I think not)
- Analysts are still questioning execution of other suppliers
- Analyst on CNBC yesterday said to sit and wait for earnings
- If you do an extrapolation of current numbers today the 4 years equates to something like ~71k sales/year conservatively-- which is awesome and this is assuming the density of cells do not improve.
- People haven't caught on yet <-- more likely
 
Could it be that Elon's comments are a good thing for share prices, in the medium to long term? He may have been wise to temper the unbridled enthusiasm.
Short term it sucks. But TSLA will no longer be considered a "bubble." Unless there is some really bad news, this will stand as the "correction," and the stock will proceed on firmer ground.
IMO, the consolidation of share prices in this range (still up hugely for the year) portends well for future gains which will be based on TM reaching goals, beating expectations, surpassing guidance, and less on pure speculation.
 
I dont think tot be true. FB is just humming along just trying to keep green, no real extreme volume today as one might think. the market just seems to be in limbo mode and even more so Tesla and it just slowly sinks. I am still going to hold my weeklies but the market looks like a sad Sally today. Fed Report?
 
I give up. If the stock isn't even going to go green on news that TSLA has secured battery supply to quintuple production in 4 years time...then how the hell am I supposed to trade this? Going to just sit on my hands until after earnings.


The price action is quite bearish, especially considering today's good news. Only one thing can explain this: the big players are selling into any strength.

In normal case I will move along with the market, However the Q3 is impending. The big players have been wrong before, and may not be right this time either.

I am more or less taking a stance, and reduce size. Worst case is I will have to hold it for a long while, changing my strategy.

I am still finding the solid support at 160, with a brief moment of breach:

tsla160support2.jpg


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To my frustrated, impatient friends: Options are tough to play, predictability has changed for TSLA. Of course I never played options but am guessing from TSLA behavior and your comments. Long Long Long is the answer to happiness and Long Life :)

Agreed, I've been long since my first foray into TSLA at 32 (and keep buying on the way up: at 37, 68, 101, and couldn't resist again when it dipped under 160). I'm holding onto every share until Gen III launch.
 
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