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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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#12,981
redharel said:
i think you are in the wrong side, tesla is a momentum stock and the trend is by far bearish. you can always find a positive like oh 134 is very hard resistance and we've had all the bad news already and so on but as much as most of people don't like to hear it, until q4 results tesla will mostly be traded on technical as i can't see any news to either side to realy make a change to trend.

take a look at the weekly chart and the tell me you still believe we're going up?!
Click to expand...

I've said this before and I'll say it again: TSLA has a very high beta, and most retail investors without access to the correct trading tools,and the knowledge & time to use those tools, are going to be completely destroyed by short term speculating.

I've watched people burn hundreds of k, or even millions doing this. Those who make money in the end do so only after waiting years and not letting the noise of short term events determine their investment strategy.

I do not recommend TSLA to anyone who cannot tolerate the risk of wild price swings.
 
#12,983
#12,986
sleepyhead said:
TSLA actually has a very low beta.
Click to expand...

You are correct... I just looked it up on Google and it is listed as 0.39, which comes as a surprise to me. My core retirement funds are all index funds, which have generally moved up, but not nearly at the same rate as TSLA. Actually, until this latest plunge, TSLA was steamrolling my index funds. Even after the plunge it's still no contest in favor of TSLA. They were both going up, but TSLA's curve was far far steeper. This is why I assumed the Beta was quite high.
 
#12,989
I'm doing some research now on TSLA and thought about a couple of things.

First, TSLA was on such an upward ride since May that this past week of consolidation/sideways movement feels a little weird. It reminds me of when TSLA was trading in the 25-35 range. Then again, TSLA felt quite volatile to me when it traded in the 25-35 range.

Second, I was looking at a my daily chart for TSLA and the stochastics are obviously oversold. Has anyone here ever seen TSLA's stochastics flatline in the oversold on a daily chart?
 
#12,990
AlMc said:
This is why I pulled money out of my mutual funds in my IRA to buy Tesla. Beta number is crazy vs index funds.
Click to expand...

There is one particular exchange where I saw repeated trades that looked odd in mid October. First it looked like a few tests a day to see what it took to move the stock. Then suddenly it looked like they were hammering away at the stock price from that exchange. Those trades were really driving down the price and they looked different from what was coming out of other exchanges. Once the drop started rolling they backed off. If things flattened out they would pick at it again. Any time there was a negative media sensation that particular exchange was especially active. I was looking for it again today, but I noticed that same exchange was picking up the price. So, I started juggling money today as well.
 
#12,991
FANGO said:
Anyone who knows the actual story of the situation knows that these incidents show the strength of the Model S, not the weakness of it. I would presume that prospective buyers, those who are actually about to pony up the cash to buy the car, will seek real information rather than hysteria, and thus, when armed with real information, will not be swayed by said hysteria.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And there is even hard evidence to back this up:
Out of almost 400 Model S owners, 96% say, after they learned about the 2nd debris fire, they would buy the model S again.
3% are not sure, and only 1% would not buy it again.
How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information?

We know that model S sells mainly by word-of-mouth. If owners are still convinced their cars are the best available - and we know that from this poll - we can assume that they recommend the cars to friends/family/colleagues now the same way like before the fires.
 
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#12,994
So, I just drove my Model S with the new 5.8 software and at highway speed the car remains at the "Standard" height. I pushed "Low" to see if I could manually lower the car to "Low" but I received a message that this option is not available. Thus, we have a free software change that will quite likely reduce the number of fires caused by collisions with road debris. The higher height will allow the car to pass above some debris that might be an issue at the "Low" setting, and perhaps collisions with debris such as a trailer hitch might not be as damaging to the battery pack at the higher height because the car has less distance needed to rise as it passes over certain forms of road debris. The downside of the change is that some drivers might prefer the somewhat better mileage and handling of the "Low" setting. I see this change as an experiment to gauge how the height affects the fire threats from road debris. At least in this critical short term period, the change makes sense to me. The eventual availability of "Low" height for the car at highway speed will certainly be an issue for discussion as the pros and cons are debated. In the meantime, let's see the results of this change, but not too soon. The longer we have to wait for some data points, the better.
 
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#12,995
Papafox said:
So, I just drove my Model S with the new 5.8 software and at highway speed the car remains at the "Standard" height. I pushed "Low" to see if I could manually lower the car to "Low" but I received a message that this option is not available. Thus, we have a free software change that will quite likely reduce the number of fires caused by collisions with road debris. The higher height will allow the car to pass above some debris that might be an issue at the "Low" setting, and perhaps collisions with debris such as a trailer hitch might not be as damaging to the battery pack at the higher height because the car has less distance needed to rise as it passes over certain forms of road debris. The downside of the change is that some drivers might prefer the somewhat better mileage and handling of the "Low" setting. I see this change as an experiment to gauge how the height affects the fire threats from road debris. At least in this critical short term period, the change makes sense to me. The eventual availability of "Low" height for the car at highway speed will certainly be an issue for discussion as the pros and cons are debated. In the meantime, let's see the results of this change, but not too soon. The longer we have to wait for some data points, the better.
Click to expand...

There's quite a lively discussion about this over at Air Suspension no longer lowers at highway speeds (FW update v5.8)) with mixed reactions. A lot of owners are disappointed at Tesla's lack of communication on this. Apparently this "feature" in the new update wasn't advertised.

Someone over there said fires #1 and #3 were cars with the air suspension running on the low setting. Has anyone seen that fact confirmed?

As a future owner, I see it as a positive step, though I do hope they return the choice to the owner.

As a shareholder, I'm pleased this could reduce the chances of another trailer hitch surprise in the next few months. Tesla's reputation needs time to heal. Tesla has suffered a battering the last couple months, and I'm not sure if Tesla management fully groks the long term damage to the brand given their inadequate communications on the topic so far. Where's the blog post they promised on November 11th: "An additional blog from Elon will follow shortly." ?
 
#12,996
I am quite sure now, that it is a bug, and not an intentional setting.
Over in the Air suspension thread someone tested it out with cruise control. The car now lowers at 97mph, where before it lowered at 97 kph which is 60mph.
So imo it looks very very likely that some programmer just confused mph with kph, why would they otherwise lower at 97mph?
We know that they are working on an autobahn-tuning, so this would explain that they were messing around with mph and kph...
Nevertheless, the question remains: What will the media make out of it?
 
#12,997
SuryaDham said:
I am quite sure now, that it is a bug, and not an intentional setting.
Over in the Air suspension thread someone tested it out with cruise control. The car now lowers at 97mph, where before it lowered at 97 kph which is 60mph.
So imo it looks very very likely that some programmer just confused mph with kph, why would they otherwise lower at 97mph?
We know that they are working on an autobahn-tuning, so this would explain that they were messing around with mph and kph...
Nevertheless, the question remains: What will the media make out of it?
Click to expand...

Probably is immaterial. Just think about it... Oh no my car that gets features added over OTA updates has 1 bug amidst adding features :(. People need to read that statement and think how ridiculous that is.
 
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