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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah, I think they've smartened up and do not want to trigger the 10% shortsale rule.
Sunnyday
Member
Regrettably, I've cashed out my chips earlier today for a nice gain and have decided to bank it in a couple rental properties, and a decked out P85 for January delivery.
I got into TSLA for the long term potential, and to support the move to EV. However, I've found myself disillusioned by their repeated poor performance on the public relations front. My background is PR. Anyone can get great press coverage when the news is good. But it's when companies face adversity that you see their true corporate communications chops. The bloodletting we've seen has been completely unnecessary, and any attempts by Tesla to blame the media completely misses the point. Tesla failed to take ownership over their message with the first fire. In those critical first 24 and then 48 hours they were silent. They let others speak for them, and they allowed the void of information to be filled by naysayers, negativity and the ill-informed. The ensuing panic harmed the company, not just the stock price. You'd think they would have learned from the first fire, yet they didn't. They failed again with #2, and then yet again with #3. With the accident, their PR team was unavailable for comment for nearly an hour after the story exploded online. At a time when news cycles are measured in minutes and seconds, Tesla has shown itself as a deer in the headlights. They need show themselves as more responsive, more transparent and more prepared.
The stats Elon laid out with fire #1 may have been true then, but they're not true now. By stating those odds, he set himself up for disappointment if there was a fire #2 in the near term, which there was, followed by #3. In New York, he presented more stats which were not entirely apples to apples accurate at best, and misleading at worst. He planted new defensive stakes in the ground (no one injured in the fires; no one ever seriously injured in any Tesla accident; no deaths in a Tesla ever). With those comments, he stacked more dominoes at the feet of bears and haters that the law of numbers will some day topple.
When the first fatality happens in a Tesla - it's matter of when not if - I don't have confidence based on their performance with the fires that they have a plan to deal with it. Will they blame the driver? Will we hear about the fatality from Tesla first, or will it first get discovered by the Stocktwits on Twitter? Do they have a written contingency plan to deal with it, or, like Elon said in NY, will they respond to the next crisis by first waiting and seeing how others respond?
To me, the responses to date smack of denial, bafflement or arrogance. It seemed as if Elon was miffed by the public reaction, and how dare people be so stupid to overreact. Yes, people overreacted, I don't think any of us here disagree. That's what ill-informed people do. Yes, people are stupid. Yes, the media gravitates toward the sensational. Yet his reaction, and the failure to adequately respond since (where's the imminent blog post Tesla promised a week ago?) belies a potential failure of Tesla to truly grok the implications of this negative publicity, and how to stop it. Rather than communicating more, they're communicating less. This short term publicity is causing long term harm to the company. It's harming the faith, trust and enthusiasm of their supporters. It increases the risk that demand many not always outpace production capacity.
And now we see the bungled update of 5.8, and its undocumented changes. Is the height restriction deliberate or a bug, or was it both buggy and deliberate? Why the silence? After three days, how come the company hasn't communicated such a simple message to its owners? The latest from a representative is a confirmation that there was a change made to the height settings, yet it's still not clear if it was deliberate or not. See: Air Suspension no longer lowers at highway speeds (FW update v5.8) - Page 47 - "I was just told by Tesla Ownership that while they do not have an official response from management, they have heard from engineering that (and i am paraphrasing) that 5.8 changed the way the car's air suspension works..."
By the measures above, all of which at their root are based in flubbed communications strategy and therefore self-inflicted, I have to conclude that the underlying long term value of the company I held at $190 now has a lower long term value today. As a long term investor, the long term is no longer so blindingly bright as it once was. I think the next few months will be rough. Q4's performance is likely to be muted by battery supply issues and the fire. At this point, I think it's more likely we'll see a sub $100 price than a $150 price.
I wish all the investors here the best of luck. I look forward to joining some of you as an owner soon. And if things change and my risk/reward calculus justifies it, I hope to get back in for the long term.
I got into TSLA for the long term potential, and to support the move to EV. However, I've found myself disillusioned by their repeated poor performance on the public relations front. My background is PR. Anyone can get great press coverage when the news is good. But it's when companies face adversity that you see their true corporate communications chops. The bloodletting we've seen has been completely unnecessary, and any attempts by Tesla to blame the media completely misses the point. Tesla failed to take ownership over their message with the first fire. In those critical first 24 and then 48 hours they were silent. They let others speak for them, and they allowed the void of information to be filled by naysayers, negativity and the ill-informed. The ensuing panic harmed the company, not just the stock price. You'd think they would have learned from the first fire, yet they didn't. They failed again with #2, and then yet again with #3. With the accident, their PR team was unavailable for comment for nearly an hour after the story exploded online. At a time when news cycles are measured in minutes and seconds, Tesla has shown itself as a deer in the headlights. They need show themselves as more responsive, more transparent and more prepared.
The stats Elon laid out with fire #1 may have been true then, but they're not true now. By stating those odds, he set himself up for disappointment if there was a fire #2 in the near term, which there was, followed by #3. In New York, he presented more stats which were not entirely apples to apples accurate at best, and misleading at worst. He planted new defensive stakes in the ground (no one injured in the fires; no one ever seriously injured in any Tesla accident; no deaths in a Tesla ever). With those comments, he stacked more dominoes at the feet of bears and haters that the law of numbers will some day topple.
When the first fatality happens in a Tesla - it's matter of when not if - I don't have confidence based on their performance with the fires that they have a plan to deal with it. Will they blame the driver? Will we hear about the fatality from Tesla first, or will it first get discovered by the Stocktwits on Twitter? Do they have a written contingency plan to deal with it, or, like Elon said in NY, will they respond to the next crisis by first waiting and seeing how others respond?
To me, the responses to date smack of denial, bafflement or arrogance. It seemed as if Elon was miffed by the public reaction, and how dare people be so stupid to overreact. Yes, people overreacted, I don't think any of us here disagree. That's what ill-informed people do. Yes, people are stupid. Yes, the media gravitates toward the sensational. Yet his reaction, and the failure to adequately respond since (where's the imminent blog post Tesla promised a week ago?) belies a potential failure of Tesla to truly grok the implications of this negative publicity, and how to stop it. Rather than communicating more, they're communicating less. This short term publicity is causing long term harm to the company. It's harming the faith, trust and enthusiasm of their supporters. It increases the risk that demand many not always outpace production capacity.
And now we see the bungled update of 5.8, and its undocumented changes. Is the height restriction deliberate or a bug, or was it both buggy and deliberate? Why the silence? After three days, how come the company hasn't communicated such a simple message to its owners? The latest from a representative is a confirmation that there was a change made to the height settings, yet it's still not clear if it was deliberate or not. See: Air Suspension no longer lowers at highway speeds (FW update v5.8) - Page 47 - "I was just told by Tesla Ownership that while they do not have an official response from management, they have heard from engineering that (and i am paraphrasing) that 5.8 changed the way the car's air suspension works..."
By the measures above, all of which at their root are based in flubbed communications strategy and therefore self-inflicted, I have to conclude that the underlying long term value of the company I held at $190 now has a lower long term value today. As a long term investor, the long term is no longer so blindingly bright as it once was. I think the next few months will be rough. Q4's performance is likely to be muted by battery supply issues and the fire. At this point, I think it's more likely we'll see a sub $100 price than a $150 price.
I wish all the investors here the best of luck. I look forward to joining some of you as an owner soon. And if things change and my risk/reward calculus justifies it, I hope to get back in for the long term.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I love tesla and car.
1.I suspect the rapid expansion of coverage while being unable to ramp up production may not be a great idea. If they are unable to catch up to production in Europe why start spending money in china or Korea yet? They will be huge markets for tesla once they can meet demand.
2. I am getting concerned about lack of promised tweet from musk. If 5.8 version was to prevent further fires why not tout that? Is he more concerned over investigation or law suits to keep quite on issues? I don't believe he should respond to every stock movement but from 180 to 125 is not just a stock movement. It could ultimately affect reputation of the car once company is tarnished
palmer_md
Member
Personally I think his decision to remain quiet about the car fires at this point is a good idea. Just wait until the investigation is complete before publishing any information. The talking points he has been making up to now are good, and that should be sufficient. What they really need to do would be release a tidbit about Model X, or something about not having any battery supply problems over the next 24 months (only if it is true obviously), or something about gen3 car. All of these little bits of news would be something to show a bright future for Tesla and not talk about the past right now. Anyhow, my thoughts may not match others here, but I just felt like chiming in.
Congrats and goodluck although I'm sure you'll be kicking yourself 1-2 years from now for not keeping just some of your chips in.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
I would agree with this if they hadn't turned off the lowering of the car. This tells me something is up. You can't just make a change like this and not explain it. What if they suddenly disabled all touch screens with no explanation?
On a separate note, I think the Model X won't be a smashing success in sales like the Model S. The Model S is a sports sedan. I'm personally (and know of others with the same opinion) not putting down $100k on an SUV. They will sell them but I don't think at the same rate of the S. The model E is where it's at, if they could only accelerate production of that car...
I believe the stats he presented in that interview were the one presented by Automotive News just days prior, in an article which he mentioned immediately before talking about the stats.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20131108/BLOG06/131109827/tesla-firetraps-numbers-dont-back-it-up
And the stats are objectively strong and still in Tesla's favor. You are pushing further misinformation here.
Tesla has clarified that the supply issues are not the battery, but 1% components and in any case it's the factory ramp which is constrained, not battery supply. I don't know why people are still talking about this because it's been weeks.
I've been saying this for awhile, but not many seemed to agree with me. I have seriously considered writing a letter to Elon to offer him my services at a discount because I believe in the company and in him, but he is shooting himself in the foot. I said it before and I'll say it again: he is a fantastic leader, but this is a war for the future of the Earth against an entrenched and formidable enemy (big oil), and no General can win a war without good junior officers. He needs reinforcements badly, and he needs to recognize his "growth edges," let go of PR, and focus on the things he does best.
Until he does, I see PR as a vast, gaping liability that will continue to extract value from Tesla's brand in the marketplace. It's like a political campaign -- when you say nothing, your opponent controls the conversation. They need an ad budget and a holistic marketing campaign other than "word of mouth," not to generate demand for the product, but to protect general perception of the brand.
So, I'm literally praying for Elon to hire some smart reinforcements because I truly want this company to change the world my son will live in for the better, and they can do it, but not just with a great product. Elon is a brilliant guy, but he can't do everything. He needs to build a real PR team that exists outside the self-centered Silicon Valley bubble that none of the world cares anything about, a team that is capable of reacting in real-time with relative independence from oversight by Elon. That requires trust and delegation.
None of this has anything to do with underlying fundamentals of cashflow / margins / cost / supply structure of Tesla, which are strong as ever. I don't give a crap about battery factory costs, they just do not matter at this point in time.
Also, I'm still ordering my Model S next month.
Cheers,
Flux
Edit: Also since someone asked about the 200-day Moving Average, here you go:
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If the change of lowering was intentional (and not a 97kph->mph bug), then it was as a response to the hysterical chicken littles around here who can't leave well enough alone and are demanding that Tesla do something about their non-issue. It's a non-issue, it will continue to happen, and changing the ride height will minimally affect it at best, or when this happens again after a ride height change it will just make everything look worse and make it look like the problem is inherent to the car and unfixable. And it will happen again. It was always going to happen. It happens nearly a thousand times per day in the US alone (and probably another half as many times in Mexico). Of course it's going to happen again.
And by the way, the NHTSA, since they do understand statistics and safety and design and that cars have accidents every day and that you can't control things out on the open road and that the car is fundamentally safe and has protected it's occupants, will not respond to any of the recent incidents in a negative way. They are far more rational than the world at large and than even the people posting here (apparently), and they will recognize that this is not an issue. Maybe it becomes an issue in the future (extremely doubtful) but it is not one now. So all this talk about forcing Tesla's hand is crazy.
Model X will sell just as well as the Model S. The market for luxury SUVs is absolutely enormous. Have you ever been to any upscale area? MLs, Tahoes, Escalades, Range Rovers, Cayennes, etc. are everywhere.
Tesla is certainly doing a bad job at PR, but I think at its root the problem is bad failures in internal interdepartmental communications, which we've documented before. The programming department suffers from complete opacity, with the service department having no idea what they're doing.
Also, Tesla's legal department is completely, grossly incompetent -- I'd fire them all, immediately, if I were put in charge -- which is a major risk factor.
Perhaps I've been a bit more cynical than other Tesla investors already. Tesla has definitely had its share of unforced errors, and has shot itself in the feet a few times. I think the underlying technical and market fundamentals are going to make it hard for other companies to catch up with Tesla, giving Tesla a good long-term position -- but this is due to the *other companies* shooting themselves more often, and in more ways, than Tesla can shoot itself in the feet. Mmm.
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If it was unintentional, it's a sign of very bad QA.
If it was intentional, it's a sign of lack of reading comprehension skills, which is arguably even worse. Those of us in the "snow and debris belt" asked for an OPTION to keep the car high, not a MANDATORY change.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
I don't see anyone buying TSLA until Tesla/Elon saying something about this. It's looking like it's going to break below $122 soon.
I agree with almost all of this (particularly the internal communications and legal stuff), but I would not put "very" in front of "bad QA" and there were certainly people talking about mandatory changes in the "what should Tesla do just to show they're doing something?!" thread.
___________
Elon has said something about this. It's not an issue with the car. He's right.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
If this was not intentional, they would have announced it by now and that a fix would be released shortly.
The silence tells me it was intentional.
The silence tells me it was intentional.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
sadly to protect any earnings I had left, I've sold out of all but a few hundred shares of tesla. Well, that was a good run guys, but without the old elon at the helm saving us each tesla tuesday, the same strategy of buying the dips isn't going to net me money. Time to move to a different sector and return when Elon turns this boat around.
I agree with a lot of what you said. Personally, I bought in with Tesla at $32 a share and have cashed out all but 1000 shares. I will keep those shares and just for posterity but agree the way Tesla has handled all of the recent news is just not acceptable. If this were Apple or another world-class company, there would be a press conference and a full explanation of what is happening and what measures Tesla intends to take to resolve the problem. I agree that the stock was probably overvalued to begin with, but the bloodshed up to this point has been mostly unnecessary.
They allow the news of the fires and a couple financial metrics to completely skew the perception of the company – some of the more important metrics like number of cars delivered and margin were seemingly overlooked.
Tesla has rewarded me very handsomely – they paid for my car and vacation house that I just purchased in cash. PS – to those of you financial wizards that are scratching your head, I do plan on taking a mortgage back out on the house and reinvesting in another stock.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Every bodies situation different. You might consider not taking mortgage but using original funds to go into another stock. It may not be a huge winner. Tesla very unusualI agree with a lot of what you said. Personally, I bought in with Tesla at $32 a share and have cashed out all but 1000 shares. I will keep those shares and just for posterity but agree the way Tesla has handled all of the recent news is just not acceptable. If this were Apple or another world-class company, there would be a press conference and a full explanation of what is happening and what measures Tesla intends to take to resolve the problem. I agree that the stock was probably overvalued to begin with, but the bloodshed up to this point has been mostly unnecessary.
They allow the news of the fires and a couple financial metrics to completely skew the perception of the company – some of the more important metrics like number of cars delivered and margin were seemingly overlooked.
Tesla has rewarded me very handsomely – they paid for my car and vacation house that I just purchased in cash. PS – to those of you financial wizards that are scratching your head, I do plan on taking a mortgage back out on the house and reinvesting in another stock.
PokerBroker
Member
It is a good buy for investors looking to establish a stronger long term position. Months til recovery is totally irrelevant to many. On the other hand, if the stock takes a full year to rally from 120 to 180 (not even a high), you still have returns of 50% on the year.
Sunnyday
Member
Thanks. If things play out as I expect, I'll have an opportunity to reenter at a point that will give me a higher long term expected value. But yes, I recognize that the self-kicking could start much earlier than 1-2 years. It could be 1-2 weeks if things magically turn around. Good luck all. I think those who continue to hold long and strong will still enjoy higher prices 2 years from now than we see today.
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