Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[MikeC]

I definitely think there has been a focused infiltration of shorts. I only pay attention to the known names that have been around for a while when I read this thread.

 

[serkol]

No short here. Read my prior threads But you have to call the moment what it is. Being excessively negative or positive does nobody good. Advising people to hold the stock or to sell the stock does nobody good either. People should do what they feel is right with level headed thinking. The unknown is a bad place to be when investments are large, whether it's TSLA or any other company. I have seen people get burned with excessive confidence and faith and some miss out on a huge opportunity being too negative. I just don't know where we are with TSLA at the moment. Following very closely. I want Tesla to succeed. But Elon has to instill confidence in people with his words and actions, and how quickly he says and does. But at the moment it is sit it out and wait. I can tell you this- I was readying to order my Model S before year end and my enthusiasm has waned quite a bit (even though I will most likely order). And that's from a huge Tesla fan, a close follower, and engineer. Imagine the average consumer's perception. Anyone think Tesla can maintain the same pace of sales in the near term or medium term?

If I wanted to buy a MS, I would buy it. Now when the air suspension does not lower the car at HWY speeds, a MS has roughly the same chances of catching a trailer hitch as an average car. Before this firmware update it had much more chances - many cars could have passed over that hitch without touching it. It could sit there for hours, waiting for its MS ride.

In my life I hit road debris twice - once it was a wooden box, another time it was a part of a truck tire. None of this would do anything to MS.

In a very unlikely case that I manage to pierce the battery and it catches fire, I would feel good knowing that "just maybe" the battery saved my life, and Tesla will give me my money back.

So why not buy a MS?

 

[FANGO]

Anyone think Tesla can maintain the same pace of sales in the near term or medium term?

Anyone think they can't? The company is not demand constrained in the slightest, has multiple markets it can dedicate production to all of which have long lines, and whenever the lines get shorter people jump in because they don't have to wait as long (there are a lot of people who don't want to wait 3 months). Tesla also hasn't spent a single cent of their almost $800m cash on advertising, which is a sure-fire way to solve a demand problem - one which doesn't exist yet, and probably won't for years to come.

There's almost no possible scenario I can think of where Tesla sales will drop in the short or medium term. Hell, they've raised the price on the car multiple times and still don't have a problem selling them out. They're the top-selling car in half of the country's wealthiest zip codes and in all of Norway. Top-selling! Not second place, not close to the top, but actual top selling for a company which has only been selling cars in any significant number for a little over a year now and hasn't advertised at all. And considering they seem set to beat their GM target, at an ASP of nearly 100k, they could drop the price by 2-4k and probably still hit 25% GM by end of year. But they won't, because there won't be a demand problem.

You really think the best car on the road, which has gotten good reviews from every publication to review it, and has the best word-of-mouth of any car around, both of which are things which will not change at all as a response to recent non-events, isn't going to sell? The people who want it will still want it, the people who don't want it will still not want it, and the people who have never heard of it will hear of it. Half of the people who have never heard of it will do research and realize what hogwash the media reporting has been and will then want it, and the other half will continue blissfully unaware until they come back in a year or two, forget where they first heard about the car, and then want it all of a sudden. This ridiculous media reporting would cause a drop in sales if there were a saturation of the market, but there is not.

That said, please tell everyone this will result in a drop in sales in Q4, so we can have a repeat of Q1 when those earnings get posted. Because there won't be a drop in sales.

 

[Papafox]

So it looks like we're seeing the epic battle between RobotGrease's down channel and Curt Renz's Golden Rule. I tip my hat to both members for sharing their perspectives.

I've been buying more stock in the low 120s because I think if we're not at the bottom we're close enough for my purposes.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Anyone think they can't? The company is not demand constrained in the slightest, has multiple markets it can dedicate production to all of which have long lines, and whenever the lines get shorter people jump in because they don't have to wait as long (there are a lot of people who don't want to wait 3 months). Tesla also hasn't spent a single cent of their almost $800m cash on advertising, which is a sure-fire way to solve a demand problem - one which doesn't exist yet, and probably won't for years to come.

There's almost no possible scenario I can think of where Tesla sales will drop in the short or medium term. Hell, they've raised the price on the car multiple times and still don't have a problem selling them out. They're the top-selling car in half of the country's wealthiest zip codes and in all of Norway. Top-selling! Not second place, not close to the top, but actual top selling for a company which has only been selling cars in any significant number for a little over a year now and hasn't advertised at all. And considering they seem set to beat their GM target, at an ASP of nearly 100k, they could drop the price by 2-4k and probably still hit 25% GM by end of year. But they won't, because there won't be a demand problem.

You really think the best car on the road, which has gotten good reviews from every publication to review it, and has the best word-of-mouth of any car around, both of which are things which will not change at all as a response to recent non-events, isn't going to sell? The people who want it will still want it, the people who don't want it will still not want it, and the people who have never heard of it will hear of it. Half of the people who have never heard of it will do research and realize what hogwash the media reporting has been and will then want it, and the other half will continue blissfully unaware until they come back in a year or two, forget where they first heard about the car, and then want it all of a sudden. This ridiculous media reporting would cause a drop in sales if there were a saturation of the market, but there is not.

That said, please tell everyone this will result in a drop in sales in Q4, so we can have a repeat of Q1 when those earnings get posted. Because there won't be a drop in sales.

The thing is, it is entirely possible that there will be a higher number of cancellations and lost sales on the short term. However, it doesn't matter. Why? Tesla's backlog is huge. Sometimes they play around with prioritizing EU over US or the other way around towards the end of the quarter, but normally the wait time is at least 2-3 months. So any setback in current sales will not show up on the production line until early next year. By then the hysteria will have passed over and the only real affect will be some people ordering in December and January getting their cars earlier than expected.

 

[tray loader]

"here´s the key info from the Strickland/NHTSA interview:
"..And Strickland in August expressed irritation with Musk. “On more than one occasion (Musk) has directly challenged me in one-on-one meetings on a number of issues regarding electric vehicles,” Strickland said at an event. “He is very passionate. He has very strong views and on occasion I have had to explain to him, I am really not trying to mess up his business model. I am trying to do this to actually keep people safer.”
In a Detroit News interview Tuesday, Strickland declined to comment on Musk, but said Tesla is cooperating. “The only thing that we are really concerned about at the end of day is that Tesla meets the statutory obligations to make sure that its vehicles are safe,” Strickland said.
From The Detroit News: NHTSA: Tesla didn't ask for Model S investigation | The Detroit News

Even though the NHTSA might not be the fastest mover, why is Elon constantly challenging this elephant?
This whole scenario implies a underlying issue.On both cars and Musk
Another backfiring coffin.Pure ego.
Childish.
Unnecessary.

 

[Causalien]

"here´s the key info from the Strickland/NHTSA interview:
"..And Strickland in August expressed irritation with Musk. “On more than one occasion (Musk) has directly challenged me in one-on-one meetings on a number of issues regarding electric vehicles,” Strickland said at an event. “He is very passionate. He has very strong views and on occasion I have had to explain to him, I am really not trying to mess up his business model. I am trying to do this to actually keep people safer.”
In a Detroit News interview Tuesday, Strickland declined to comment on Musk, but said Tesla is cooperating. “The only thing that we are really concerned about at the end of day is that Tesla meets the statutory obligations to make sure that its vehicles are safe,” Strickland said.
From The Detroit News: NHTSA: Tesla didn't ask for Model S investigation | The Detroit News

Even though the NHTSA might not be the fastest mover, why is Elon constantly challenging this elephant?
This whole scenario implies a underlying issue.On both cars and Musk
Another backfiring coffin.Pure ego.
Childish.
Unnecessary.

This is the type of post that I am talking about. Did you even read the 100+ similar posts before? Or are you the one who's taking over posting in the night shift?

 

[Jack6591]

Turn of events since May has been unbelievable. Elon appears quite desperate in trying to save his beloved company, almost helpless from his tone and his sudden barrage of tweets. I fell very sad about what has happened over the last two months... To all forum members who are still heavily invested in TSLA: let reason prevail, detach yourself from emotion of Tesla and do the right thing. Good luck.

I am going to do the right thing. I will leave tsla shares to my grandchildren.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Tesla gets top marks in Consumer Reports satisfaction survey

Tesla gets top marks in Consumer Reports satisfaction survey - Yahoo Finance

 

[RobStark]

So we don't have to hear Volt owners ramble about how Volt gets the highest customer satisfaction rating of any car made anymore?

 

[yngwie_2012]

So we don't have to hear Volt owners ramble about how Volt gets the highest customer satisfaction rating of any car made anymore?

finally a positive piece of news. Should give us a nice +3% boost today..

 

[xhawk101]

And you just might be a plant from the opposite camp LOL.

Another paranoid thought I've been having is... and I guess it's in the hidden recess of other people's mind.

Who the heck drops a tow hitch or a metal curved fender onto the highway. Was it disconnected from another car? Was it dropped from a truck? Why hasn't the parties involved sue the transportation companies yet? Or the insurance company sue whoever dropped it? I thought USA is a lawsuit happy country especially with the $ amount of damage.

If the lawsuit already happened, please point me to the publication.

No short here. Read my prior threads But you have to call the moment what it is. Being excessively negative or positive does nobody good. Advising people to hold the stock or to sell the stock does nobody good either. People should do what they feel is right with level headed thinking. The unknown is a bad place to be when investments are large, whether it's TSLA or any other company. I have seen people get burned with excessive confidence and faith and some miss out on a huge opportunity being too negative. I just don't know where we are with TSLA at the moment. Following very closely. I want Tesla to succeed. But Elon has to instill confidence in people with his words and actions, and how quickly he says and does. But at the moment it is sit it out and wait. I can tell you this- I was readying to order my Model S before year end and my enthusiasm has waned quite a bit (even though I will most likely order). And that's from a huge Tesla fan, a close follower, and engineer. Imagine the average consumer's perception. Anyone think Tesla can maintain the same pace of sales in the near term or medium term?

Don't buy it. Huge Tesla fan and engineer? How can you really think sales will be anywhere near affected with their supply constraints? How as an "engineer" can you suddenly be so negative with this revolutionary tech?

I know the answer. Because don't have your money where your mouth is in buying a Tesla or stock you have your money in buying short.


I am a long time investor and model S owner and have followed this thread extensively and read almost every word. Moderators: may need to start censoring to weed out the manipulators.

 

[copyhacker]

So we don't have to hear Volt owners ramble about how Volt gets the highest customer satisfaction rating of any car made anymore?

As a Volt owner, I knew this was inevitable and I wouldn't have it any other way. I love my Volt, but I only bought it because a Model S is presently out of my reach.

Most Volt fans I know of are also big Tesla fans, btw.

 

[v12 to 12v]

I am a long time investor and model S owner and have followed this thread extensively and read almost every word. Moderators: may need to start censoring to weed out the manipulators.

Me too. It is disconcerting how this changed from the Tesla Investors forum to the Tesla Traders forum.

 

[MartinAustin]

Me too. It is disconcerting how this changed from the Tesla Investors forum to the Tesla Traders forum.

Well, it is called the Short Term Movements thread.

Perhaps you would prefer it to be called the "TSLA Lovers Only, No-One Who Would Besmirch Us Need Enter" thread?

It takes all sorts of opinions, and a savvy reader, to gain anything useful from a thread of this nature. I have sold high, bought lower quite a few times now. Doesn't make me a hater of the stock or the company. I am just trying to make money. And I just ordered the car. I think if everyone was truly 100% long, this thread wouldn't have any posts in it, because no-one would care if the stock fell.

SPEAKING of the stock... I am starting to think we have passed the bottom point (that being around $120). There are just too many buyers around at the $120 level.

 

[carrerascott]

Maybe but we just dropped from the $124s to the $120s awfully fast.

 

[Curt Renz]

Maybe but we just dropped from the $124s to the $120s awfully fast.

We've often seen this during mornings, even during the big uptrend. All that's needed is for a hedge fund bot to initiate a quick short selling program. Then the price cascades like dominoes through tight stop limits set by new shareholders. Once those nervous longs get taken out, the hedge fund bot then slowly covers its short position during the rest of the day. Since I see no news that might have triggered the drop, that may have been what happened today.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Well, it is called the Short Term Movements thread.

Perhaps you would prefer it to be called the "TSLA Lovers Only, No-One Who Would Besmirch Us Need Enter" thread?

It takes all sorts of opinions, and a savvy reader, to gain anything useful from a thread of this nature. I have sold high, bought lower quite a few times now. Doesn't make me a hater of the stock or the company. I am just trying to make money. And I just ordered the car. I think if everyone was truly 100% long, this thread wouldn't have any posts in it, because no-one would care if the stock fell.

SPEAKING of the stock... I am starting to think we have passed the bottom point (that being around $120). There are just too many buyers around at the $120 level.

Exactly, it is a "Short Term Movement" thread. We discuss what events moved the stock or events that may move the stock. It is not titled "Short Term Trader" thread.
I'd just like to see more objectivity here.

 

[Citizen-T]

You guys know I'm all for short term trading, but at this point we have no edge on short term price movements.

Hysteria has taken over, momentum players have turned against us, and shorts are back for more pain. We are quickly approaching the 200-day (or it is approaching us). I can't say what is going to happen day-to-day these next few weeks, but I can say that Tesla is going to be worth at least $150 billion in 10 years. That's a 10-bagger from here. So, I'm just accumulating common shares these days and largely ignoring the noise.

Call me if something important happens.

 

[AprilDelivery??]

When the market is up big like today 90 or 100 and its going to up there in a trading range they wait until there is a little drop and bring down the stock to the lows of the day then buyers quickly buy it meaning bottom resistence then the stock bounces back up . Meaning its a dip. Right?

We've often seen this during mornings, even during the big uptrend. All that's needed is for a hedge fund bot to initiate a quick short selling program. Then the price cascades like dominoes through tight stop limits set by new shareholders. Once those nervous longs get taken out, the hedge fund bot then slowly covers its short position during the rest of the day. Since I see no news that might have triggered the drop, that may have been what happened today.