Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[callmesam]

Los Angeles service claims to have sold every loaner in stock and that "most" other device centers have the same "problem" and have been resorting to rental cars as loaners

also Elon mentioned recently that battery deliveries from Panasonic under the new contract will start delivering Q2 2014.

 

[Calvin.K]

Strong bullish indicator starts red and rallies to green!

 

[Robert.Boston]

I understand that the price in Norway is fixed in NOK, correct?

A weaker NOK is actually bad for Tesla's income statement, since it will translate into less USD per sale. Also as far as profits go, it doesn't matter when you paid for the car: If you paid for the car in Q2 but got it delivered in Q4, then Q2 currency has nothing to do with this sale on the income statement side for either quarter; it is the Q4 currency that matters. It is the opposite for cash on balance sheet though, but not the opposite for some other items on balance sheet (such as retained earnings). All of these things are sorted through a FOREX gain/loss account on IS. This topic is way too complicated to discuss, and it is really not that important to worry about unless currency movements are big. It is the average currency rate for the quarter that matters anyway for IS, and the difference in currency rate from first to last day that matters for BS.

The NOK only weakened 1% against the USD in Q4, so that will not be that big of an issue in Q4. The NOK has been pretty flat since deliveries started in Norway, and that is the important part as far as IS goes.


The important thing is that a weaker NOK is a negative for Tesla unless they are perfectly hedged (which is impossible to do), and as far as profits go it doesn't matter when you paid for the car - only when it was delivered.

It's possible that Tesla hedged the NOK/USD exchange rate when orders were placed. That's how my consulting company handles FX risk on large fixed-price contracts.

 

[sleepyhead]

It's possible that Tesla hedged the NOK/USD exchange rate when orders were placed. That's how my consulting company handles FX risk on large fixed-price contracts.

I am sure they did, but as I wrote it is impossible to hedge perfectly and there will always be some FX gain or loss. Look at Tesla's Q1 and Q2 results where they had rather substantial FX gains due to the weakening of the Yen, which allowed them to purchase batteries for less USD. I am sure they hedged a portion of it, but you can never hedge 100% or even close to it. Let's say that Panasonic stopped producing cells for a few weeks and Tesla couldn't buy as many as they thought they would get. If you hedged 100% of expected deliveries, you are now over-hedged and exposed to currency fluctuation risk.

Same goes for cars. There will always be a portion left unhedged, at least that is what almost all of the companies do. Heding 100% of EXPECTED sales is just as risky as hedging only ~70%.

 

[Norse]

Yes Sleepy, that was my point. I am not sure when Tesla fixed the price, but it might been around 5.5 NOK, it was fixed way ahead of deliveres. Since July it's been over 6 NOK. This is obviously bad for Tesla, and it is the reason why they raised the price. However that only applies for those who get it in Q2,Q3 2014. So I would not expect high margins from Norway.

However most of the cars are full specced and Tesla has made sure they are not shipping many cars between the quarters, as we can see on the monthly numbers.
Their highest priority is to get 25% GM, and I am sure they would not ship that many to Norway, if the did not get 25% in total.

 

[772]

The first trading day of the year is in the books now for TSLA. Was not a good day for the market overall, but TSLA is only down very fractionally and holding the $150 level.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Model S was the best-selling car in Norway in December. 533 registered cars.

Tesla mest solgte bil i desember - DN.no
Ble ikke fjorårets bestselger - Men Tesla toppet i desember - Bil - E24

Tesla sold 1,983 Model S in Norway in 2013.

 

[FredTMC]

Model S was the best-selling car in Norway in December. 533 registered cars.

Tesla mest solgte bil i desember - DN.no
Ble ikke fjorårets bestselger - Men Tesla toppet i desember - Bil - E24

Tesla sold 1,983 Model S in Norway in 2013.

someone posted a rumor that AWD model S will be announced after market close today. Just a rumor

 

[EarlyAdopter]

someone posted a rumor that AWD model S will be announced after market close today. Just a rumor

Where was the rumor posted?

 

[Raffy.Roma]

someone posted a rumor that AWD model S will be announced after market close today. Just a rumor

This would be very good. Hope that it is true. Actually there has been a discussion on TMC whether Tesla should produce the AWD Model S together the Model X or not. IMO best thing would be to produce the AWD Model S and the Model X together in order to give more options to people interested to the Tesla AWD System.

 

[Cameron]

This would be very good. Hope that it is true. Actually there has been a discussion on TMC wether Tesla should produce the AWD Model S together the Model X or not. IMO best thing would be to produce the AWD Model S and the Model X together in order to give more options to people interested to the Tesla AWD System.

I agree. BMW for example sells a lot of their xdrive sedans even though they have all the SUVs as well. It seems a significant amount of people are now wanting AWD "just in case" I could see another 20-30% increase in sales with that option. Hopefully they make an announcement about that soon. It would be both hugely beneficial for the stock and helping the companies image as a global brand not just a Southern California luxury brand.

 

[AlMc]

someone posted a rumor that AWD model S will be announced after market close today. Just a rumor

Well that did not happen.:frown: But I, for one, would not have complained if it did.

 

[Julian Cox]

Oh the irony, Bloomberg breaks story:

Ford CEO Alan Mulally flunks interview with Microsoft due to lack of technology experience.

Pressure mounts on Mulally to clarify if he will stay on or not to oversee the launch of 23 new models for which technology experience is apparently not key requirement.

Happy 2014, go TSLA.

 

[TSLAopt]

Happy New Year to all TSLA longs, 1st post of 2014 in the short term thread, woohoo! Lol

Buzz is from another thread on here that there will be some big company announcement/training for employees on Jan 8th.
wonder what it will be...AWD S? Giga news? Model x beta? New battery pack? NHTSA findings?

 

[AlMc]

Buzz is from another thread on here that there will be some big company announcement/training for employees on Jan 8th.
wonder what it will be...AWD S? Giga news? Model x beta? New battery pack? NHTSA findings?

Interesting if true. Doubt it is NHTSA. TM would want Government to announce first and not sure you need training of TM people for that. Doubt need training for Giga factory or battery pack. Leaves announcement about vehicle news. There staff of TM should be first to know and need training.

just my 2 cents....

 

[TSLAopt]

Interesting if true. Doubt it is NHTSA. TM would want Government to announce first and not sure you need training of TM people for that. Doubt need training for Giga factory or battery pack. Leaves announcement about vehicle news. There staff of TM should be first to know and need training.

just my 2 cents....

I agree its probably not NHTSA or Giga related...but i was thinking it could be also some new customer service development. I seem to remember some sentence in the Q3 report about an exciting new development in customer service upcoming.

 

[FredTMC]

I agree its probably not NHTSA or Giga related...but i was thinking it could be also some new customer service development. I seem to remember some sentence in the Q3 report about an exciting new development in customer service upcoming.

Great point.

 

[Jack6591]

After the Model S fires, Elon granted interviews where he complained about the disproportionate media coverage. Subsequent to those interviews there has been a dearth of media coverage. At least by Tesla standards. Bullish analysts, such as Dougherty's Andrea James, Deutsche Bank's Dan Galves, and Jeffries' Elaine Kwei have been uncharacteristically silent.

Now there is a great deal of discussion regarding a possible announcement next week.

Should an announcment be forthcoming, I would expect a very deliberate, well thought-out press release.

 

[bonaire]

It is getting time to price the Model X. During car show cycles, this is a good time to get the word out so it can compete and draw in orders that are not yet reserved. 10k orders is a head start but they will want 15k by summer and this is car shopping season during the car shows.

 

[TSLAopt]

It is getting time to price the Model X. During car show cycles, this is a good time to get the word out so it can compete and draw in orders that are not yet reserved. 10k orders is a head start but they will want 15k by summer and this is car shopping season during the car shows.

Perhaps it will be a combination of AWD model S and the Model X showcasing. Maybe the educational part is to go over the detail of the dual motor AWD so that they can speak to customers and potential buyers intelligently about it. I would expect the AWD Model S to be made available at the same time as the X...even though a lot of people who would have ordered the S now will now wait until later in the year to get the AWD version, the demand without those orders is already something Tesla can't meet....plus the extra demand later in the year would coincide with the full ramp up in battery supply from Panasonic later in the year so they could be assured more orders at that time.