Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

Hmm..I found this weird thing on the news feed:

"Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla Motors, indicated that he is planning to use the electric car company’s soaring share price to raise cash next week for a giant battery cell factory."


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=30&cad=rja&ved=0CEUQqQIoADAJOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb5db84b6-999b-11e3-b3a2-00144feab7de.html&ei=2FwFU9CTMuPfsAS0-4K4CA&usg=AFQjCNHb0F3tQBJhpEzOvtium18SGeVwqw

(You need to disable javascript and then click that link to see it)

Was there any mention of this in the call? OR where they are getting this from?

They are choosing to interpret what he said on the call in that fashion. He did NOT specifically say that. What was said was if they wanted to build the car in three years they would need more capital, if they could stretch that time out, no capital would be needed. He also at another point said that they would be announcing the battery factory DETAILS next week, and deflected most of the other questions about it to be saved for next week.

So I can understand the interpretation of that to mean hey look, here is our battery factory, and oh by the way another stock offering to raise capital for it... or it could just be, here is the details of the factory... I expect at SOME point *soon* we will have another offering... it would be best to do it now while the stock is high on the positive earnings, so it won't kill the price too much (and might even be seen as a positive).

 

[kenliles]

Hmm..I found this weird thing on the news feed:

Elon Musk..., indicated that he is planning to use the electric car company’s soaring share price to raise cash next week for a giant battery cell factory."

Was there any mention of this in the call? OR where they are getting this from?

In addition to brainstorms' answer; he also answered that yes, if GigaFactory was to be done in a 3 year time frame Cap raise would be needed, (but perhaps not if over a longer time inferred). So yes, I would expect a Cap raise for it, maybe even as part of next week's announcement. Given it's tie to solve one of the last GEN III major issues, I doubt it will be viewed negatively by the market unless it's unexpectedly large

edit-
whoops- chickensevil beat me to it

 

[Monsoon]

Hmm..I found this weird thing on the news feed:
"Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla Motors, indicated that he is planning to use the electric car company’s soaring share price to raise cash next week for a giant battery cell factory."

Was there any mention of this in the call? OR where they are getting this from?

Supposed journalist making assumptions, connection dots badly, and reporting it as news. That is not a factual statement spoken by Elon today.

edit-
whoops - chickensevil and kenliles both beat me to it

 

[chickensevil]

Got a few more Bloomberg videos:

Will Tesla Find a Niche in China?: Video - Bloomberg
Will Tesla Partner with Apple or Google?: Video - Bloomberg
Who's Buying Tesla Cars in Asia?: Video - Bloomberg
What This Surreal Art Says About Tesla's Strategy: Video - Bloomberg

 

[MikeC]

I wouldn't have characterized that as "Nervous laughter" -- I took Elon's laughter as saying "You just asked me that and I answered very firmly and here you are trying to ask me again"

Yeah, I took it the same. Awkward or uncomfortable were other words I considered using.

 

[AlMc]

Supposed journalist making assumptions, connection dots badly, and reporting it as news. That is not a factual statement spoken by Elon today.

I suspect we will get many things taken out of context tomorrow by SA authors. It was nice to hear him say that social media is keeping the main stream media from giving misinformation, or worse, deliberately false info.

 

[772]

Got a few more Bloomberg videos:

Will Tesla Find a Niche in China?: Video - Bloomberg
Who's Buying Tesla Cars in Asia?: Video - Bloomberg

These videos in particular are awesome. I think the owner they interviewed is a TMC member, too. Well done!

 

[Norse]

Anyone wanna predict the price action the coming days?

 

[772]

up, up, up

even more money coming out of TWTR, FB, AMZN, etc. and going into TSLA. I may decide to go for some otm Feb 28 calls tomorrow if they are cheap.

 

[Causalien]

Anyone wanna predict the price action the coming days?

Short squeeze tomorrow and day after. With Friday being muted due to opex. If tmorrow's squeeze is severe enough i.e 20% ontop of today's 10% margin call will then be issued for the bigger shorts. Margin call is an unlikely scenario.

So taper out back to the gap price until giga factory announcement 204 is now a support. And the gap will need to be filled with some sort of negative news. I am guessing Q1 will be a staging point for shorts because the guidance for that Q1 shows some bad news can be constructed to show tsla is slipping.

 

[Monsoon]

They are choosing to interpret what he said on the call in that fashion. He did NOT specifically say that.

I dislike adding to the speculation threads, but...
Think way back, (Teslive, I believe) when Elon spoke on camera about the possibility of forming an umbrella company, under which SpaceX, Tesla, Solar City, and [Insert wholly-owned/partnered battery manufacturing company here] might reside as a larger-picture corporate structure. I'm sure he hasn't mentioned it again publically since then, but, this new battery manufacturing partnership could well fit. So pretend for a moment Tesla + Panasonic + [Insert Apple, other battery manufacturer, Solar City (unlikely) Morgan-Stanley, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.] reside here under that umbrella.

Just throwing that out there. But I DO believe Tesla having or owning control of their supply of batteries is essential. Engineers look for the possible points of failure, and a global shortage of batteries clearly has been on Tesla's radar for a long time.

The Q2 [2013] Earnings thread. | Forums | Tesla Motors

Anthony H | AUGUST 8, 2013
OK, you’re reading it here first.
I’m connecting three data points:
1. Tesla’s recent purchase of the 35-acre adjacent land, formerly a test track
2. Elon’s comments at Teslive about the massive shortage of battery factories (capacity), and
3. Tesla’s Q2 earnings call yesterday where Elon again emphasized the Gen III car at 500,000 units per year would require more battery production than the entire laptop industry has today. Factories need to be built now to meet this goal.
I suspect the land purchase isn’t for a test track – I believe Tesla will begin manufacturing their own batteries.
Perhaps with a partner (Panasonic) or with licensed technology – but it really fits their culture of in-sourcing key components and needing to control their supply chain.

 

[chickensevil]

I dislike adding to the speculation threads, but...
Think way back, (Teslive, I believe) when Elon spoke on camera about the possibility of forming an umbrella company, under which SpaceX, Tesla, Solar City, and [Insert wholly-owned/partnered battery manufacturing company here] might reside as a larger-picture corporate structure. I'm sure he hasn't mentioned it again publically since then, but, this new battery manufacturing partnership could well fit. So pretend for a moment Tesla + Panasonic + [Insert Apple, other battery manufacturer, Solar City (unlikely) Morgan-Stanley, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.] reside here under that umbrella.

Just throwing that out there. But I DO believe Tesla having or owning control of their supply of batteries is essential. Engineers look for the possible points of failure, and a global shortage of batteries clearly has been on Tesla's radar for a long time.

Careful... The "umbrella" company would be for Elon's companies, so he could move cash from one to another without any issues. This is not the same as a partnership which is what is being proposed here. Would be two totally different things. I am going to stick with supply partners as the words of choice I use. Dedicated partners to provide supplies/core materials for the factory. Which is sticking with what he said during the call and how he said it.

- - - Updated - - -

About the quoted text, that could also be for factory expansion or any other various purposes... I would not be surprised by them using that land for that or going with another state/location. This thing is going to be pretty big.

 

[evme]

Another video:

Any Truth to the Tesla-Apple Speculation?: Video - Bloomberg

Also, anyone familiar with China know what this means?

Institution Investors Know Tesla Chinese Partner in Advance, Sinomach Leaking Out?

 

[carnut4ever]

Short squeeze tomorrow and day after. With Friday being muted due to opex. If tmorrow's squeeze is severe enough i.e 20% ontop of today's 10% margin call will then be issued for the bigger shorts. Margin call is an unlikely scenario.

So taper out back to the gap price until giga factory announcement 204 is now a support. And the gap will need to be filled with some sort of negative news. I am guessing Q1 will be a staging point for shorts because the guidance for that Q1 shows some bad news can be constructed to show tsla is slipping.

Gee, Any chance that todays after hours trades were institutional short coverings and tomorrow with drop with profit taking? Tesla, how to lose money in less than 4.2 seconds.

 

[NigelM]

Elon coming up on Bloomberg TV shortly. (See Bloomberg West with Emily Chang).

 

[kenliles]

Gee, Any chance that todays after hours trades were institutional short coverings and tomorrow with drop with profit taking? Tesla, how to lose money in less than 4.2 seconds.

not too likely- AH volume too low to achieve much covering. And those shorts who need to cover via options can't do anything until tomorrow regardless. Expect most covering tomorrow and into friday

 

[aznt1217]

Gee, Any chance that todays after hours trades were institutional short coverings and tomorrow with drop with profit taking? Tesla, how to lose money in less than 4.2 seconds.

Definitely not. For big movements and big volume, there are limits to these things because that would make the market extremely unfair.

 

[MikeL]

Thanks Nigel ! Now I know what channel Bloomberg is on. (761 :frown ML

 

[Causalien]

Gee, Any chance that todays after hours trades were institutional short coverings and tomorrow with drop with profit taking? Tesla, how to lose money in less than 4.2 seconds.

Hello short.

Sorry, I am retiring to a beach somewhere. I'll leave someone else to spar with you .

 

[tlo]

Full Bloomberg interview with Elon here:
Tesla CEO Musk on Battery Factor, Model X, Apple: Video - Bloomberg