None of what you wrote indicates that Tesla is no longer production constrained. If you are referring to Mr. Santos's SeekingAlpha article, I encourage you to look at Mr. Santo's overall body of work with regards to Tesla. There are several cogent rebuttal's to Mr. Santos's writing in the comments if you care to sift through the garbage. The fact that Mr. Santo's articles get a lot of clicks relative to other Seeking Alpha articles means that he has no incentive to clean up his work.
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None of what you wrote indicates that Tesla is no longer production constrained. If you are referring to Mr. Santos's SeekingAlpha article, I encourage you to look at Mr. Santo's overall body of work with regards to Tesla. There are several cogent rebuttal's to Mr. Santos's writing in the comments if you care to sift through the garbage. The fact that Mr. Santo's articles get a lot of clicks relative to other Seeking Alpha articles means that he has no incentive to clean up his work.
@carnut4ever: Please stop spreading such manifestly false information. The 100 cars sitting on a lot in Germany never existed. This was a "mistake" or a "glitch." Follow up on that link and you will see that "poof" they disappeared, and the company behind the website has told those who called to inquire about the cars that there was a mistake and it has been corrected: ie, the cars have completely disappeared from the site. Get your facts straight, or your posts have no credibility whatsoever.
Can someone who has access to Paulo Santo's article please write a thread in this section that has in its Subject Line something like "BAD Misinformation about 100 Teslas for sale in Germany"????
I don't subscribe to SA, so I can't read the whole article and thus comment appropriately on it and link to it, but I think a properly headlined thread here can go a long way towards dispelling this rumour.
I don't subscribe to SA, so I can't read the whole article and thus comment appropriately on it and link to it, but I think a properly headlined thread here can go a long way towards dispelling this rumour.
bareyb
Active Member
^^^^ I don't think giving it any more attention is the answer. I'd never even heard about it until I read it in this thread just now.
As others have noted, that information about 100 cars was incorrect. That Seeking Alpha author has been writing FUD about TSLA for a year since it was priced in the thirties. He gets a penny for each visitor to his Seeking Alpha articles. He must be well aware that his TSLA articles can attract as many as 50,000 readers. Apparently he appreciates earning nearly $500 every few days for writing negative TSLA articles. I would not be surprised if it turns out that bigger players have been supporting him throughout his campaign. I suggest not feeding that troll by not clicking into his articles.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I don't really understand this. After all Tesla is a completely American brand. Why Noland has to point out that "yes it's true demand for Model S is increasing at global level but in the USA such a demand is decreasing". Ok but who cares if the Model S is bought in the USA, Europe or China. Main point is that demand for Model S is increasing.
You have many envious people in the USA.
I don't know, but he equates deliveries with demand, which is obviously false when Tesla is production constrained and allocating deliveries to more markets.
He also dismisses the evidence against him by pulling an assumption out of thin air: "customer deposits, rose by 18 percent in Q4 2013.... Most of those deposits are presumably for the upcoming Model X..." Says who?
Finally, he implies that Tesla has something to hide: "this mystery and speculation would all be unnecessary if Tesla simply reported its monthly U.S. sales--as every other car company does." Dude, Tesla reports deliveries every three months. Get over it.
chickensevil
Active Member
Since I specifically brought it up in this thread first (I believe - if not then I at the very least contributed to it), I wanted to provide the "bottom line" on these "mysterious" 100 cars or whatever. A poster on the same article claims to have contacted Tesla regarding these cars, and here is what he posted:
and his second post:
So hope that puts this to rest. All of this has been a lot of he said, she said... so you are all welcome to try to reach out to Tesla Germany for further information, but I as I commonly read through these comments, I have not seen the poster: "Ford Prefect 1969" post anything that would indicate he would be making this information up.
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Something else that I think is a good sign for the upcoming Q1 results and should help put some of the other recent FUD to rest
Tesla Model S crushes all
This is Norway sales data. Most people tried to jump on top of the fact that January sales were low in Norway, and even trying to claim Feb sales were down as if people didn't want cars in the country any more now that a lot of the subsidies have dropped (side note: have they actually pulled out all the subsidies for Norway? Or is it just another one of those things where you have to wait for the stuff back on your taxes, so people try to fit it in in December so they can get it in time?). Anyway, Tesla is back to being number 1 on the market share for Norway, and the total sales for the year is now up to 1,110 (and with this article date of 18 March, that is another 13 more days of possible deliveries to get that number up even higher before the end of the quarter).
So, in my opinion this reinforces the "supply constrained" line of thinking which concludes that Tesla is sending these cars where they need to, to try to alleviate their highest backlogs. So one country or area gets a heavier focus during certain times than others do. I think this also leads to "slow" months seeming to pop up, because they would be trying to ship out most of their end of Dec/early Jan cars to foreign countries so they get there in time for the end of Quarter sales. With them intentionally holding back 1000 cars this time around, hopefully we will see this start to even out now, and it will be less "bursty". I think this is also why it would not be helpful for Tesla to at this time push their Monthly sales numbers or specifically break down where certain cars are getting delivered to since neither of those pieces of information actually tell the story of demand (for now)
and his second post:
So hope that puts this to rest. All of this has been a lot of he said, she said... so you are all welcome to try to reach out to Tesla Germany for further information, but I as I commonly read through these comments, I have not seen the poster: "Ford Prefect 1969" post anything that would indicate he would be making this information up.
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Something else that I think is a good sign for the upcoming Q1 results and should help put some of the other recent FUD to rest
Tesla Model S crushes all
This is Norway sales data. Most people tried to jump on top of the fact that January sales were low in Norway, and even trying to claim Feb sales were down as if people didn't want cars in the country any more now that a lot of the subsidies have dropped (side note: have they actually pulled out all the subsidies for Norway? Or is it just another one of those things where you have to wait for the stuff back on your taxes, so people try to fit it in in December so they can get it in time?). Anyway, Tesla is back to being number 1 on the market share for Norway, and the total sales for the year is now up to 1,110 (and with this article date of 18 March, that is another 13 more days of possible deliveries to get that number up even higher before the end of the quarter).
So, in my opinion this reinforces the "supply constrained" line of thinking which concludes that Tesla is sending these cars where they need to, to try to alleviate their highest backlogs. So one country or area gets a heavier focus during certain times than others do. I think this also leads to "slow" months seeming to pop up, because they would be trying to ship out most of their end of Dec/early Jan cars to foreign countries so they get there in time for the end of Quarter sales. With them intentionally holding back 1000 cars this time around, hopefully we will see this start to even out now, and it will be less "bursty". I think this is also why it would not be helpful for Tesla to at this time push their Monthly sales numbers or specifically break down where certain cars are getting delivered to since neither of those pieces of information actually tell the story of demand (for now)
whoever thinks demand for the Model S has dropped anywhere... deserves to have their money taken. You can't equate orders to deliveries, two entirely separate things. I thoroughly enjoy reading articles like these, because it shows me that there is still time to make money. Don't get hopes up in Q1 it was said in the last CC many units would be in transit.
chickensevil
Active Member
True, but to keep a level head on any investment it is good to keep your eye on both sides of the argument. Keep in mind there are always two sides to every trade. Someone who is selling and someone who is buying. So it is in your best interest to find out why they are selling and if their reason for selling holds any merit to if you too should sell. In looking at that information, there is definitely a strong crowd out there that is trying to claim that demand is dropping and they are trying to fill out other markets in order to avoid the impression of this dropped demand. So it felt worthwhile to present more evidence to the thesis that they pretty much ship the cars wherever they feel is necessary.
Indeed, though I am still surprised that people give Paulo et al. any kind of credibility. They have been wrong so, so many times now. Q1 numbers will be interesting; the early estimates were for deliveries to begin in China this month, but that seems like it has been pushed to April. RHD cars were supposed to start being produced in April, but I think that also is delayed a bit. I don't think they will have any problems selling their production, but as for reporting numbers, it will be interesting to see how they report cars in transit. I think Elon said they would not count those as deliveries. In light of that, I think it will be difficult for them to report a "blowout" number for Q1, but it seems very likely for Q2, especially if they "miss" on Q1.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath in regard to the Paulo santos (or whatever his name is). I realize with money involved it is easy to prepare to "jump ship" but demand is not a problem. Elon has mentioned multiple times that as shipments increase to other parts of the world they will have to divert cars from the US to elsewhere which will cause a longer delay in the US (which has happened). Now that less cars are being shipped to CA everyone thinks the sky is falling. Try and remember how honest Elon has been in the past and trust him until he proves untrustworthy. Happy investing
I think that it is premature to conclude that there is not going to be a sizable beat of the Q1 deliveries. I am not sayng that the beat is guaranteed by any means, but there are some indications that the significant production ramp-up That Elon indicated will happen sometime in Q1 might have actually materialized. See post link below for the reference on what Elon said during his (first) Munich visit:
Elon in Munich on Jan 30, 2014 - Page 4
There was a discussion in the Tesla Factory Visit thread about the current production rate, where some of the posters indicated that they saw the sign with the weekly production goals, but could not provide this information due to NDA. After back and forth discussion, there was a cryptic post from another member indicating that "current capacity is 100-150 cars a day". In the context of other posts I believe that he meant to hint that Tesla actuall increased production to 750 cars/week (5 x 150 = 750) during the week of February 13.
If indeed this is true it would mean that first five weeks of Q1 production was about 600 cars/week (possibly up to 616 cars per week based on Tesla guidance for 7400 produced cars in Q1, divided by 12 weeks). The remaining 7 weeks of production at 750 cars/week would yield 5250 cars, for a total of 8250 cars produced in Q1. Subtracting 1000 cars that Tesla guided will be in transit yields delivery of 7250 cars, or 850 cars higher than the guidance of 6,400 cars.
Tesla Factory Visit - Page 2
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Totally agree on ignoring P. Santos musing. I remember reading the only positive article that he posted regarding Tesla and cringing nevertheless at breathtakingly inept arguments he was making to support his positive TSLA outlook. This author has zero credibility as far a I am concerned.
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"Totally agree on ignoring P. Santos musing. I remember reading the only positive article that he posted regarding Tesla and cringing nevertheless at breathtakingly inept arguments he was making to support his positive TSLA outlook. This author has zero credibility as far a I am concerned."
Except I don't see the ignoring part.
'Why is everybody ignoring by analyzing the ignore-ramous'. I think the posts about ignoring this article have made it more famous than he original publication. Frankly I don't even know what article you guys are talking about. Never even read what I'm supposed to ignore...
Except I don't see the ignoring part.
'Why is everybody ignoring by analyzing the ignore-ramous'. I think the posts about ignoring this article have made it more famous than he original publication. Frankly I don't even know what article you guys are talking about. Never even read what I'm supposed to ignore...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Noland is actually a Model S owner, and seems to really like the car, but most of his articles seem to have a negative spin to them. Very odd.
"Totally agree on ignoring P. Santos musing. I remember reading the only positive article that he posted regarding Tesla and cringing nevertheless at breathtakingly inept arguments he was making to support his positive TSLA outlook. This author has zero credibility as far a I am concerned."
Except I don't see the ignoring part.
'Why is everybody ignoring by analyzing the ignore-ramous'. I think the posts about ignoring this article have made it more famous than he original publication. Frankly I don't even know what article you guys are talking about. Never even read what I'm supposed to ignore...
Ha, I did write "ignore musings", not articles; so it is ok to read, just ignore the musings... :biggrin:
Haha Excellent point vgrinshpun! I missed the musings part.... Hilarious. I'll skip that part then, Thanks for that
Yes, but given the delay in deliveries to China, I think the number of cars in transit will be higher than they initially estimated. It should not be a big deal financially in the long run, but sometimes the market just reads the headlines (Q3'13).
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