Would you agree that its "look out below" if we close under the 200dma? That risk is stopping me from buying shares, and I don't play options (would probably follow you on this trade if I did).
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Would you agree that its "look out below" if we close under the 200dma? That risk is stopping me from buying shares, and I don't play options (would probably follow you on this trade if I did).
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Maybe I'm stupid, but why does Wall Street care all that much if the Model X is delayed a bit? With cells being a constraint and S orders not being an issue, all the available packs will be consumed by S purchases. Although they say cell production restrictions will diminish in Q3, I still think the S demand will be able to consume all of the available packs.
I personally wouldn't say it shows weakness per-say, but I would say we have less of a buffer at this point in time then we had in the past. Does that make sense? meaning tomorrow and next week is critical, in my mind, atleast for the short-mid term.
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Nevermind, that makes no sense. Yes, I think it shows weakness and high risk for the coming days.
I think I'm going to call it and say that the day after Q1 2014 is far worse than the day after Q3 2013 even with the fires during Q3. The reason for this is the fact that TSLA had been selling off since Q4 and never bottomed out. Today was the icing on that cake.
I personally wouldn't count on the 200-day MA holding tomorrow and TSLA will probably keep dropping. 150, here we come!
I personally wouldn't count on the 200-day MA holding tomorrow and TSLA will probably keep dropping. 150, here we come!
But that's what I disagree with. If you don't mind short term volatility, then I would prefer to have bought at $185 than $200. Of course, assuming you are willing to leave it as a longer term position if required (which I am).
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I am expecting further downside once people are able to short TSLA again. My understanding is that once the circuit breaker tripped at 182 then we had a sharp rise because shorts couldn't control the price. Since it ended even lower than 182, we'll see shorts pile in tomorrow or monday, whenever they are allowed back. That's when we'll get the actual drop.
If I understand correctly, the short sale circuit breaker still allowed people to short on upticks today.. simply that they weren't able to be as aggressive at any particular instant. Given the volume and volatility of TSLA I don't think it really dampened their ability to short very much today. I agree it's a concern though, maybe some of the shorting bots were turned off because of it.
Uptick rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the past when this has tripped, it hasn't resulted in significant drops upon getting un-tripped, if I recall correctly. But if this whole drop is due to influx of shorts, then great, more fuel for the rise. I think it's probly mostly selling rather than people initiating new short positions if that makes sense.
It's not really important whether an individual consumer chooses a Model S or X, although the latter will be priced a little higher. Yes, in the case of Model X the revenues will be somewhat delayed. But such future value counts, even if it must be discounted a bit. Especially while the company is production constrained, this is not an issue.
In the case of a growth company with huge future potential for sales, figures based on the last quarter or the next quarter's estimates are largely irrelevant in determining a reasonable share price. Fundamental analysts employing mainly their college training often miss this point. They tend to tell us what their models say is a proper share price. They should instead be attempting to estimate what people will be willing to pay for shares in the coming months and years due to a multitude of reasons. Then their clients could decide if they want to pay something like $200 today or $2000 in a few years. A few good analysts actually do this.
Tesla Motors does not yet advertise. People here in Chicagoland are either unaware or are vaguely aware of the company and its cars. I suspect this is true in much of the country outside of California. People who follow the financial news are aware of Tesla, but unlike members of this forum, most people do not follow the financial news. (My career was in TV financial news, so I know.) Currently Tesla cannot make cars fast enough to prevent long wait times for buyers. (Backlog is bad, not good; it discourages some potential buyers.) Once production is ramped up and the backlog dissipates, look for Tesla to begin advertising. After that, expect talk about a possible demand plateau to be forgotten.
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Yes, I would be promoting short, if the circuit breaker wasn't kicked in today. Its much LESS risky to short at the moment than to buy shares. You're an idiot if you play teams at a time like this. There is no shorts vs. longs in a short-term price movement thread.
This isn't the yahoo message boards. Yelling "SHORT" like its some sort of insult doesn't do anything.
I agree completely with Curt. Adam Jonas is one of the good analysts by the way, and he sees both choppy action in the short term but huge, world-changing upside in the long term.
When half a million Model E's are humming through the streets in 5 years and several last-century automakers are bankrupt, how much will Tesla Motors be worth then? $200 bucks a share? $2000? The discounted value of Tesla's future earnings UNTIL THE END OF TIME is the appropriate valuation model for the stock price. Nothing more suffices. Everyone has their own mental model for the discounted value of all future Tesla Motors earnings and cashflows. Mine says I will retire on TSLA stock in 5-10 years. Not 5 months.
When half a million Model E's are humming through the streets in 5 years and several last-century automakers are bankrupt, how much will Tesla Motors be worth then? $200 bucks a share? $2000? The discounted value of Tesla's future earnings UNTIL THE END OF TIME is the appropriate valuation model for the stock price. Nothing more suffices. Everyone has their own mental model for the discounted value of all future Tesla Motors earnings and cashflows. Mine says I will retire on TSLA stock in 5-10 years. Not 5 months.
Yes, you're right. The restriction doesn't prevent short selling. I don't think it affected anything today. It's really only useful in mass panic situations, which wasn't today.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Oh, it would take more than just a close below it. It would need to be convincing. What that means is hard to quantify.
But yes, if we make a convincing move below the 200-day, I couldn't tell you where the bleeding would stop.
my last comment for tonight and a while:
regarding short term movement of the stock you are all speculating, nobody nows what will happen tomorrow, so dont lose energy and stress yourself, because this time i learned it the hard way. Tesla stock is shortterm unpredictible.
Long term the stock will perform very well (above $1000)
Really doubt that will move the price at all. This is just more of the same, tesla has taken this same thing in stride elsewhere and also it may not even happen. Really not news enough to affect the stock I'd say
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