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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Moderator's Note: some posts about margin requirements on covered calls are now here: Newbie Options Trading
Just wanted to get a chart up with a few comments. As always, take it or leave it.
Looks like this coming week will be interesting as it will either confirm or reject our breakout from the red channel, the one we've been in since the ATH. The 50dma and 80dma might provide some downwards resistance as well. I have no idea which way it will go, but I am leaning towards a confirmation of the breakout and more upwards or horizontal movement. For the record, I am by no means acting on that prediction and Im not suggesting others do either. In fact, now that I've publically called it, its probably advisable to do the opposite.
Here is something I never do, a cold hard unashamed prediction: See those purple arcs? Be on the lookout for everyone and their mother to start calling a "Head and Shoulders" formation as soon as we start approaching ATHs again.
And yes, TA and Charting is all worthless witchcraft or magical unicorn fairy tales... I get it.
Thanks RobotGrease. Your charts are really helpful.
I believe Tesla has to announce the final site selection for the first Gigafactory site ahead of ground breaking. Which means it is likely at least 1 week before ground breaking, which I assume means we get news of the site selection hopefully before June 20th. The question is then, what will TSLA trade at given that news? I'm thinking somewhere in the 220's.
This steady but slow climb is allowing shorts to get out in an orderly fashion, but that doesn't mean that they actually do exit gracefully.
This steady but slow climb is allowing shorts to get out in an orderly fashion, but that doesn't mean that they actually do exit gracefully.
I thought they were going to break ground on two locations at the same time, just so they don't have to do final site selection before groundbreaking?
Two locations are simultaneously being developed, but they will break ground on one before the other.
S&P has just given Tesla's credit an unsolicited rating of B- or "highly speculative," below investment grade:
Tesla Gets Unsolicited SP Junk Rating on ‘Niche’ Position - Bloomberg
The analysts' comments cast some doubt on Tesla's long-term prospects and categorize the company as a "niche" automaker. This is obviously not positive news. Any ideas on how the market might react to the rating tomorrow?
Tesla Gets Unsolicited SP Junk Rating on ‘Niche’ Position - Bloomberg
The analysts' comments cast some doubt on Tesla's long-term prospects and categorize the company as a "niche" automaker. This is obviously not positive news. Any ideas on how the market might react to the rating tomorrow?
Pretty odd given that they paid off half a billion dollars worth of debt well ahead of schedule....
Of course, I guess that was done by taking on different debt. But it doesn't seem like institutional investors agree with S&P here.
Also...less able to adapt than other automakers? That's a larf.
Anyway I can't see this being positive news of course. But I don't know if it will influence any analysts to lower price targets or anything, since the few quotes given in this article show that the S&P analysts may not know what they're talking about. Maybe we'll underperform the market tomorrow. Hopefully this doesn't result in capital flight from institutional investors....but I feel like they all did their due diligence already and S&P is only just waking up here and hasn't quite figured things out yet.
edit: thought about it some more. Two things to note: 1) this might put a damper on our hopes for inclusion in the S&P 500. I'm not sure how those two arms of the agency interact, but this seems like it would make that less likely. 2) this might hurt Tesla's ability to get loans/raise money in the short to medium term, though this shouldn't be too huge of a problem considering they've already got 2 billion in the bank for the factory, and have a commitment from a large partner who can help fund it. They might still need to take on a bit of debt in the medium-to-long term to get the factory up to full speed, but hopefully this can either be funded by profits between now and then, funded by partners, or the credit rating will improve before then. Or, heck, maybe the institutions involved in the last rounds of funding will be happy to fund it even despite this credit rating, since they seemed happy to do so before.
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There are four potential catalysts over next two weeks. Tomorrow Tesla will be speaking at the FBR & Co. Energy Technology Summit, SpaceX Dragon MK 2 will be unveiled on Thursday, and the investor meeting is next Tuesday. Additionally, on Monday Obama will announce his new energy policy, and plan to reduce carbon emissions.
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The S&P comment about Tesla not being able to adapt as quickly as other auto manufacturers shows just how little S&P understands Tesla. It's quite the opposite, other manufacturers cannot innovate and keep up with Tesla Motors.
The S&P announcement truly is astonishing on many fronts. The snippet "unable to adapt to technological changes" so spectacularly and appropriately applies to all those who are not Tesla that one wonders why on earth S&P ever would consider making this close-to-unprecedented unsolicited assessment. So much so, that the disinterested observer can very understandably be forgiven for thinking "Conspiracy?".
Overall, I believe today's release will redound far more significantly - and negatively - to Standard & Poors than it will to Tesla Motors Corp.
Overall, I believe today's release will redound far more significantly - and negatively - to Standard & Poors than it will to Tesla Motors Corp.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Remeber they are rating the bonds, not the stock. Plus anyone who can read will see that they must be talking about some other company than Tesla Motors Inc. "Unable to adapt to competitive and technological displacement risks in the medium to long term". Yeah right. Also did I mention Tesla might not be able to successfully bring an electric vehicle to market? Oh wait is it 2014 not 2009?
There were only 19,000 shares traded after hours today. The price action is meaningless.
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