Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FredTMC]

The UBS guy shouldn't be allowed to ask questions. Idiot. Nice they started with the AJs.

I LOVE that they start with the AJs! After all these are the two Bold yet ACCURATE automotive analysts. They've been consistently right about tesla. If you listened to GS or BofA analysts you would've missed the opportunity or worse even lost your ass trying to short

 

[chickensevil]

I LOVE that they start with the AJs! After all these are the two Bold yet ACCURATE automotive analysts. They've been consistently right about tesla. If you listened to GS or BofA analysts you would've missed the opportunity or worse even lost your ass trying to short

They also seem to give them much more freedom of conversation on the phone calls to ask whatever they want

 

[RobStark]

Motor is the same.

It is rated differently. Something is different.

 

[action7981]

I did love the comment about how the R&D has things that have not been disclosed that they are keeping secret. I assume one of those is starting the work right now on the Model III, but what else could they be working on? HMMMMMM??? This is like the build up for Christmas day, all these presents and you don't know what is inside, and we die of anticipation as they wait to tell us until just the right moment!

Grid storage, grid storage, grid storage. I'm guessing huge R&D investments in grid storage. When they were talking to Apple, it wasn't about an iCar. When they were talking to Google, it wasn't about autonomous driving. How many other companies are there that use a ton of energy that would benefit from grid storage? Not just in the US.

This is going to be huge for Tesla, but don't tell anyone because I can't pick up any more shares until mid to late August.

 

[FANGO]

It is rated differently. Something is different.

The cars have more power because the battery is larger. The 60 is battery limited, 85 is inverter limited, and perf. is battery limited. All use the same motor.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Grid storage, grid storage, grid storage. I'm guessing huge R&D investments in grid storage. When they were talking to Apple, it wasn't about an iCar. When they were talking to Google, it wasn't about autonomous driving. How many other companies are there that use a ton of energy that would benefit from grid storage? Not just in the US.

This is going to be huge for Tesla, but don't tell anyone because I can't pick up any more shares until mid to late August.

Pretty sure he wasn't refering to grid storage, they have mentioned that many times and Straubel has even had an hour long detailed talk about it, it is no secret.

I actually think there is a decent chance the secret project they are working on is an electric aircraft, Elon musk has talked about this a lot in interviews and apparently it is already feasible

'Impossible' electric aeroplane takes to the skies: Silent battery-powered craft could be rolled out within 20 years | Mail Online

"Engineers aim to double that fly time, but Mr Botti said: 'They [the batteries] are causing us a lot of headaches.'" Batteries, you say?

 

[ggr]

It is rated differently. Something is different.

The smaller battery can't deliver the power as quickly?

 

[MartinAustin]

The smaller battery can't deliver the power as quickly?

Exactly. Less batteries... less current coming out of the batteries simultaneously.

 

[JRP3]

Also lower voltage, means lower RPM for peak torque, which means lower HP number.

 

[772]

Hm, if things hold as they are, those puts I sold today will actually pay off. And this was indeed a great conference call, I feel that the market really isn't appreciating some of the news that been "preannounced" today. I'll be buying some short term calls again

 

[wallaby]

I actually think there is a decent chance the secret project they are working on is an electric aircraft, Elon musk has talked about this a lot in interviews and apparently it is already feasible

I don't know... Far be it from me to doubt what elon musk has up his sleeve, but IMHO, there are several reasons why electric powered commercial jets is not practical at this time.

1) In airplanes, weight is paramount. Every pound is scrutinized. And given the energy density of fossil fuels vs. electric, at this point, hauling a huge battery for long distances just doesn't make economic sense for flights. Whatever savings in cost of electricity vs. jet fuel would be swamped by the loss of freight / passenger capacity due to increased weight.

2) Jets have really short turnover time. I believe Southwest turns its flights within 15 minutes at the gate. I don't think you'll be able to re-charge a plane's battery within 15 minutes. Every extra minute spent at the gate is hugely expensive and would again swamp any savings in fuel efficiency. And battery swap would be a huge deal given the expected size of the battery, likely requiring a larger crew than current refueling crews, again washing out any savings.

3) The process of certifying a battery to meet the safety standards of international flight is long, expensive, and fraught with difficulty. Witness Boeing's troubles with a much smaller, less critical battery in its 787. Think those tesla fires were unfairly damaging to the company? In the 787, a few battery fires and the FAA grounded the entire fleet! I'm not sure why Tesla would want to tackle something like that when there are so many other low-hanging fruit it could pursue right now (grid storage, pickup trucks, delivery trucks, etc.)

4) Annual revenue for commercial jet manufacturing is dwarfed by annual revenue for automobiles. Why go after a much smaller, more difficult market when there's still plenty of automobile market to chase?

 

[AlMc]

I agree that while Elon may contemplate electric aircraft it pulls resources away from their mission statement of promoting electrification of the automotive industry. While I admit I do not know what cards they are holding I would speculate more on autonomous driving and energy storage. Someone also suggested a possible truck based on the S/X skateboard.

 

[MartinAustin]

I am happy to see TSLA restored to today's closing price, after it dipped in the after-hours. Now it only really fell by the same amount that the Dow/Nasdaq fell... i.e. Tesla Motors was not an influence on TSLA at all, even with the nervousness that often dogs it on the day of an ER.

I personally think TSLA will rise tomorrow, once the powerful statements in the conference call can be digested. Elon was almost thumping his chest like King Kong, he is so confident of success. (and he is not known to overstate)


I was unhappy that so much time was wasted on discussion of fuel cell vehicles. I hope that is the last time they entertain questions on it during a conference call... it has nothing to do with TSLA stock.


"there are things going on in R&D that we haven't revealed, so the costs are better than they appear"
* undoubtedly the autonomous driving features
* government conversion of vehicles to electric (military as well as civilian)
* pick up truck prototype


Model X appears to have slipped a little bit more, if they are now talking about "quite a few production validation vehicles in Q1 2015." I think we heard in the last ER that the first customers would be getting vehicles in Q1, with volume deliveries in Q2. Sounds like a bit of a slip to me. But like he said, they are going to be ramping up quick and they are probably nervous about screwing it up.


Hearing "annualized 100,000 cars/yr" was amazing (even if it is only in the final week of 2015). Tesla are going to be striking some serious fear into the minds of the competition pretty soon.


Model S is now "at least a few hundred pounds" less than it was to begin with - wow! I was listening to this and expecting him to say 50lbs or 100lbs max. That is a serious difference. I would like to test the 0-60 on a current car


I was unhappy to hear no news on battery pack swapping. I would love to know that the reason for the trail going cold (more than a year after the June 2013 demo) is simply that they don't want to be equipping swap stations with multiple unused batteries for the simple fact that each unused pack prevents them from selling a car. Once the Gigafactory is online and they can produce excess batteries, the pack swap feature will make a return. That would make a lot of sense. The lack of updates is just disappointing.


(Someone above was discussing current battery costs... I think $180/kWh is the current consensus these days.)

 

[chickensevil]

DaveT posted in his mega post thread that when he asked about the 100$/kW that it was indeed referring to the pack cost (not the cells individually) and that they are currently in the 200-300 range. FWIW.

Regarding the battery swap that is likely exactly the reason, and by the time they have enough to spare on that level it won't be a need because recharge times will be faster and the distance will be farther. The only motivation they had on the swap station back then, was that California was going to give them more credits per car if they had the swap station. But then CARB changed the rules taking the recharge time out of the equation. So there is no business case for battery swapping anymore.

 

[pGo]

What is the possibility that Tesla is not getting the batteries they wanted in q3 time frame from Panasonic and hence moved most deliveries to q4? The ramp up in q3 seems pretty conservative.

 

[justdoit]

Great great call and ER. I won't be surprised to see many analysts upgrade or reaffirm their buy ratings in the next couple of days/weeks. It's amazing just how much Tesla is still misunderstood and underestimated. There were several analysts who were shocked (in a good way) by the answers they were hearing.

I'm willing to guess that the "secret" they're working on is a pickup truck prototype. But regardless, it's exciting to know that they're continuing to innovate and work on new stuff and not just satisfied with their current line up.

Overall, I'm really happy and confident about my investment in Tesla. I love supporting such a great company that cares about their customers and doing the right thing, and b/c they can provide a great return on my investment Congrats everyone, this is another huge milestone for Tesla.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok, so at the risk of being kicked out of here by mods as we talk too much about the secret r&d in the price movements thread...

I think you guys need to come back to planet Earth. Electric jets, a new secret prototype of a product not on their schedule yet... No way. They don't have the resources to run huge projects like that on the side.

But, if it is autonomous driving being further along than thought, some cool new features for S/X, or improvements in charge speed it can still be very impressive. Also, Elon is really good at looking at something we all hate, but just put up with, and saying "that's stupid, shouldn't work like that!" and coming up with something cool.

Back to TSLA, the after hours is a bit strange. After the ER we usually have a big fall or a jump.

 

[Hogfighter]

I wish all of the analysts would put the 'demand' issue to bed.

TSLA has $228 million in DEPOSITS. That's not people merely interested.....that's people putting their hard-earned money down to get in line.

That number has been steadily increasing every quarter, despite the ramp-up in production, and the signature Model X reservations are no longer available.

Boy, do we need more batteries!

 

[aznt1217]

I think the letter quite clearly made a distinction between reservations and deliveries, whether or not people understand is an entirely different issue.

I wish all of the analysts would put the 'demand' issue to bed.

TSLA has $228 million in DEPOSITS. That's not people merely interested.....that's people putting their hard-earned money down to get in line.

That number has been steadily increasing every quarter, despite the ramp-up in production, and the signature Model X reservations are no longer available.

Boy, do we need more batteries!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't know... Far be it from me to doubt what elon musk has up his sleeve, but IMHO, there are several reasons why electric powered commercial jets is not practical at this time.

1) In airplanes, weight is paramount. Every pound is scrutinized. And given the energy density of fossil fuels vs. electric, at this point, hauling a huge battery for long distances just doesn't make economic sense for flights. Whatever savings in cost of electricity vs. jet fuel would be swamped by the loss of freight / passenger capacity due to increased weight.

2) Jets have really short turnover time. I believe Southwest turns its flights within 15 minutes at the gate. I don't think you'll be able to re-charge a plane's battery within 15 minutes. Every extra minute spent at the gate is hugely expensive and would again swamp any savings in fuel efficiency. And battery swap would be a huge deal given the expected size of the battery, likely requiring a larger crew than current refueling crews, again washing out any savings.

The point of going supersonic is to cut down on travel time and there's extra value in that. For charging, we know from the Model S that you can charge the batteries in 1 hour or less, and Tesla's Model S batteries are very cost-focused. Depending on the target cost per mile, it's possible that more expensive, lighter, faster-charging batteries could be balanced by gate fees.

It's also possible that if the plane is quieter it would be able to fly more hours.

3) The process of certifying a battery to meet the safety standards of international flight is long, expensive, and fraught with difficulty. Witness Boeing's troubles with a much smaller, less critical battery in its 787. Think those tesla fires were unfairly damaging to the company? In the 787, a few battery fires and the FAA grounded the entire fleet! I'm not sure why Tesla would want to tackle something like that when there are so many other low-hanging fruit it could pursue right now (grid storage, pickup trucks, delivery trucks, etc.)
4) Annual revenue for commercial jet manufacturing is dwarfed by annual revenue for automobiles. Why go after a much smaller, more difficult market when there's still plenty of automobile market to chase?

Cool tech is always worth pursuing.

Obviously not right now, but it's good to be thinking ahead so you have a product ready to use the advances in the technology as soon as possible.