Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[wallaby]

If cat is happy with his breakfast and eats it all tsla usually up for the day. If not it's down

Your next money-making venture should be a webcam of your cat eating breakfast. You can sell subscriptions. Of course the high frequency traders will want a direct link from your house so have some closet space next to your wi-fi router available to rent as well

 

[hobbes]

Lots of interesting data, thanks! Is the yellow "12M Tgt Pr" an average of all the analysts´ targets? If so, it looks like they are basically just following the share price instead of predicting it... Or is it the average target of one year ago, then it would be pretty amazing !?

Gentlemen

guess it's worth having a nice overview of PTs - at a glance - from BBG. I modified the list of the Top 12 PTs in descending order. (CLSA's PT $300 is missing here. Guess this is going to be updated. Otherwise I can contact few people there)

 

[eepic]

Thank you for the overview, Derek! Can you share one sorted by Analyst Rank (right column) if you have time? And yes, odd that the other AJ is not on that list, maybe it will update soonish.

Here's the 1 year and 3 month analyst rankings.

Derek - Some analysts require a direct subscription to their firm's publications for it to show up, hence why AJ is missing from the ANR page.

 

[chickensevil]

More than 60% if taking away days with news. I've been trying to figure out why it doesn't work some days and they seem to correlate with news events.

But like I said, haven't done real stats testing since I realized what was wrong.

Well, looks like you going to be pretty close to on the money with your guess, we are right at 1% (and it has been on a decent rise all day) with only about 1 hour left to go.

 

[FluxCap]

Derek or eepic, do you guys know what variables go into the columns on that BBG chart? I thought I knew but now am not sure.

 

[eepic]

Derek or eepic, do you guys know what variables go into the columns on that BBG chart? I thought I knew but now am not sure.

I assume you're referring the chart Derek posted. That would be a vertical bar graph representing the % of analysts that have a buy (green), hold (beige), and sell (red) recommendation. That is, if all analysts rated Tesla a buy (or equivalent like "outperform") the entire column would be green.

 

[twinklejet]

according to my premarket indicator, TSLA should be up 1% today.

SO CLOSE! Closed at 0.96%! What part of the pre market do u look at?

 

[chickensevil]

Yeah, and considering today didn't really have like... any news to speak of, it was the perfect day for your formula to work (or fail), I can totally accept a .04% margin of error!

 

[Papafox]

TSLA has continued the climb to above 257 after hours, so far. Causalien got his 1% rise if you count after hours.

I trust that the more intelligent shorts are going to be bailing shortly because the upside looks greater than the downside at this point. Too many people want to acquire TSLA at the moment and any downward pressure is met with buying, instead of fear selling. Shorts weren't able to poke any real holes in the dike this week.

 

[Causalien]

SO CLOSE! Closed at 0.96%! What part of the pre market do u look at?

If I tell you, it'll stop working because the traders and bots would catch on. I am testing the theory on whether or not releasing it here would affect its effectiveness.

 

[mibaro2]

If I tell you, it'll stop working because the traders and bots would catch on. I am testing the theory on whether or not releasing it here would affect its effectiveness.

Nice prediction today!
I'm okay with you not telling us what you are looking at...just post the result here every morning telling us what will happen to tsla , like you did today . :biggrin:

 

[Causalien]

Debating that... what if ppl started using it and one day it stopped working? I'd have to take all the blame.

 

[Johan]

Debating that... what if ppl started using it and one day it stopped working? I'd have to take all the blame.

It's like quantum physics. Once you start observing the phenomenon you ruin it

 

[mibaro2]

Debating that... what if ppl started using it and one day it stopped working? I'd have to take all the blame.

We all know that any prediction ( whether it is made by technical analysts looking at charts or someone going with a hunch ) is solely made as informational and we should consult our financial advisor before doing anything with that information. So you wouldn't get any complaints from me.
Most of us post predictions here from time to time ...sometimes right, some wrong.

 

[dmckinstry]

We all know that any prediction ( whether it is made by technical analysts looking at charts or someone going with a hunch ) is solely made as informational and we should consult our financial advisor before doing anything with that information. So you wouldn't get any complaints from me.
Most of us post predictions here from time to time ...sometimes right, some wrong.

But I thought Causalien was our financial advisor.

However, I still wouldn't act on the prediction his cat makes, since as soon as I did it would stop working.

 

[mershaw2001]

We all know that any prediction ( whether it is made by technical analysts looking at charts or someone going with a hunch ) is solely made as informational and we should consult our financial advisor before doing anything with that information. So you wouldn't get any complaints from me.

Honestly, who really consults their financial adviser on this? And what financial adviser (not following tesla religiously) would suggest we invest in a stock on a hunch from a guy called "Causalien" on a forum. I mean, think about the absurdity of that.

With that said, I'm in! I want to hear what you've got, Causalien, even if it's just for ships-and-giggles.

 

[mibaro2]

Honestly, who really consults their financial adviser on this? And what financial adviser (not following tesla religiously) would suggest we invest in a stock on a hunch from a guy called "Causalien" on a forum. I mean, think about the absurdity of that.

With that said, I'm in! I want to hear what you've got, Causalien, even if it's just for ships-and-giggles.

LOL
Consider it a feeble attempt to relieve the pressure that Causalien was feeling.
You are correct, of course.

 

[mershaw2001]

LOL
Consider it a feeble attempt to relieve the pressure that Causalien was feeling.
You are correct, of course.

Oh yes, sorry, mine was a joke too!

 

[AlMc]

Well, these posts are on page 666 on this thread................hmm............I'm in anyway 'Causalien' :wink:

 

[chickensevil]

Pshhhh you could always just risk an inconsequential amount of money on it... and if you did it with stock (instead of options) the worst thing you would have to do is just hold on a little longer until it went back positive again... or sell it off anyway and cut your losses... worst case, you just somehow lost ~250$ which I am sure is chump change for most everyone around here... Seriously if you would stake your entire wealth or some such nonsense on that type of analysis which is really just a trend in the market and not in any way tied to a real substantial backing (like, you know actual positive... or negative news on the company...) then, I'm sorry, but you probably deserved that very painful life lesson.