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I made some easy money earlier this week buying weekly puts at the open and selling later for a quick profit. I didn't Thursday or Friday figuring the steamroller was getting too close, but alas I could have kept it up.
MartinAustin
Active Member
It might be a "Tesla News Roundup."
They are at 192 supercharger locations around the world, perhaps they want to announce when they get to 200 ? Also, Model X update, Gigafactory update, Version 6.0 update etc.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah... unfortunately I think we are all building up hype on something again that is just going to disappoint us all. I am totally guilty just as much as anyone in this because I want them to announce something awesome as well. But yeah, it could be something as simple as a little blog post roundup "Look what we have done!" type thing... I would love it to be something more, and I hope it is something more, but probably won't be.
I am still waiting on the environmental impact of Tesla and EV's that we keep getting promised that hasn't come to pass yet... *sigh*, he mentioned this, yet again, during the Japan press conference/Q&A, and has been saying it for like 1 year now, how they need to release a new research paper about the "well-to-wheel" impact of owning a Tesla including everything that goes into making the car itself. The last one they did was from over like 8 years ago or something silly like that.
But yeah, hype train! Toot Toot! Elon is totally going to reveal the Model X next week! My crystal ball says so
jhm
Well-Known Member
Short of some big news, my black box is suggesting that TSLA will remain flat and a little down to 269 through the end of October. I've recently sold off my sort term calls and will likely wait until 270 before accumulating again. November could be really exciting, and we could see 350 before year end. But for now I think we are headed into a 6 week consolidation.
InTheShadows
Active Member
So it's a good time to tip-toe back into selling covered calls.
I'm trying to adjust my mentality to appreciating catching half of an up word trend with options then just sitting and waiting for the next time to buy. When I look at the bad buying decision I made (how far red they are) then 3 months later how they manage to come back and still make a profit, I start to wonder about the potential if I had just sat on the cash and bought them when they are deep in the red.
This is my strategy in the next 3 months, keeping my core position and watching for a good time to try and buy a few new leaps. If 17's are not out yet then some more 16's if the opportunity presents itself.
So it's a good time to tip-toe back into selling covered calls.
I'm trying to adjust my mentality to appreciating catching half of an up word trend with options then just sitting and waiting for the next time to buy. When I look at the bad buying decision I made (how far red they are) then 3 months later how they manage to come back and still make a profit, I start to wonder about the potential if I had just sat on the cash and bought them when they are deep in the red.
This is my strategy in the next 3 months, keeping my core position and watching for a good time to try and buy a few new leaps. If 17's are not out yet then some more 16's if the opportunity presents itself.
It's taken me a year to learn how to do that. I often seem to buy options at the top as I don't like sitting on cash. However, I can't argue with past performance which shows that I would have been better off with cash or stock.
Time to think hard about the next move.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah... unfortunately I think we are all building up hype on something again that is just going to disappoint us all. I am totally guilty just as much as anyone in this because I want them to announce something awesome as well. But yeah, it could be something as simple as a little blog post roundup "Look what we have done!" type thing... I would love it to be something more, and I hope it is something more, but probably won't be.
I am still waiting on the environmental impact of Tesla and EV's that we keep getting promised that hasn't come to pass yet... *sigh*, he mentioned this, yet again, during the Japan press conference/Q&A, and has been saying it for like 1 year now, how they need to release a new research paper about the "well-to-wheel" impact of owning a Tesla including everything that goes into making the car itself. The last one they did was from over like 8 years ago or something silly like that.
But yeah, hype train! Toot Toot! Elon is totally going to reveal the Model X next week! My crystal ball says so
I don't think you need to be hard on yourself or anyone else for hyping Tesla. If anything I am more concerned that longs lack a healthy level of enthusiasm. Nobody is hyping this stock. There seems to be a lot of fatigue and weariness from climbing a wall of worry to long and having price supports fall out from under us. Indeed, alot of really great things are coming together for Tesla. Two years ago fanboys would have been analyzing every detail of what has just come out in Nevada. We've got more information than we've ever had on the economics and rollout plan for the Gigafactory, but there has been precious little analysis of these clues here on TMC. Instead we have more complaints about Musk's recent stock price gaffe. My contention has been that the Gigafactory economics are such that no further capital raises or significant partners will be needed. We've got $2.3B plus Panasonic is on board for $1B, and that is all we need. This is an astounding possibility, but no one seems to see it or give it much thought. My sense is that people here have become far too distracted with the worry of the day to take a fresh and inquisitive look at what is really going on and the vision that is taking shape before our very eyes.
chickensevil
Active Member
I think it doesn't help that because we get a little too excited, we end up getting our hopes impossibly high and it ends up causing a ton of dissapointment. So I think people have just tried to set a little more levelheaded set of expectations. But I wouldn't say that is a bad thing. We are all pretty much in the uber bull camp here, and calming ourselves into a more reasonable level of expectations will make us all better investors (I hope).
But what I will say is that it isn't quite over-with as far as the funding. I believe Elon said somewhere that the 1.3B isn't all money that would directly help them with the initial building out of the factory (that 4-5B estimate). He said it was much lower than that. I think it is more that they will get some money back much later down the road. I mean they have to spend 3.5B before they even get a dime from NV, by that point it is going to be pretty much 2016/2017 and the factory ready to come online. So they do still need their other partners to pitch in their fair share.
The Los Angeles Times, NADA, and Objectivity
LA Times
Obviously, the North American Dealers Association (NADA) and their member dealerships have poured tremendous monies into the coffers of the Los Angeles Times advertising department. When I read such biased drivel I am compelled to call it what it is, crap. Bought and paid for.
LA Times
Obviously, the North American Dealers Association (NADA) and their member dealerships have poured tremendous monies into the coffers of the Los Angeles Times advertising department. When I read such biased drivel I am compelled to call it what it is, crap. Bought and paid for.
Toyota refuted those rumors already - Toyota Steps Away From Teslas Batteries - Corporate Intelligence - WSJ
Chickenlittle
Banned
I studied these types of deals pretty extensively in college. Almost all of these types of deals are structured in such a way that the state has no recourse if the corporation fails to meet its employment / spending requirements. The state is simply out of luck. The fact that Elon mentioned the tax incentives would be performance based during the press conference caught my ear. That would be the correct way to structure a type of partnership like this, even though it is almost never done. I haven't seen the final legislation, so I don't know how effective the performance landmarks will be, or if they even included any meaningful measures. I hope they do. I don't want to read about this deal as a textbook example of corporate welfare taking advantage of a state/local government. I have a feeling Tesla will exceed it's employment and spending goals, as they seem to have a record of underestimating the requirements of meeting their goals. I like how it seems Nevada is not starving any essential programs or services to provide these incentives -- that is the right way to do this. Often local/state governments fall into the trap of gutting important and vital services to lure a large company, in the hope that the presence of the new corporation will make up for the redirection of funding. It almost never works out that way, and the state/local government, and it's citizens are left hurting. Seems to me that Tesla is on the right track with this partnership with Nevada.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There are no "rumors."
There are currently no plans for a future vehicle.
Elon said Toyota wanted an expanded deal but Tesla could not oblige because of cell constraints.
Once the GigaFactory is in operation Elon thinks there will likely be an expanded deal between Tesla and Toyota.
That does not mean or imply Toyota is currently considering or has any plans to do another vehicle with Tesla.
This is Elon's conjecture.
Krugerrand
Meow
Do you find it frustrating to have to connect the dots for people? It's not as if they aren't clearly numbered dots in the first place. :wink:
An Automotive Ecosystem
Tesla Motors spawns an automotive ecosystem - San Jose Mercury News
A worker steams wrinkles out of a leather-covered seat at Futuris Automotive in Newark, Calif., where the company assembles about 150 seat kits a day for use in the vehicles built by electric car maker Tesla, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014. Futuris is one of a number of suppliers for Tesla who are relocating to the Bay Area. (D. Ross Cameron/Bay Area News Group) ( D. ROSS CAMERON )
150 Seat Sets X 5 days X 50 weeks would be an annualized rate of 37,500 vehicles per year, on September 11, 2014.
Tesla Motors spawns an automotive ecosystem - San Jose Mercury News
A worker steams wrinkles out of a leather-covered seat at Futuris Automotive in Newark, Calif., where the company assembles about 150 seat kits a day for use in the vehicles built by electric car maker Tesla, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014. Futuris is one of a number of suppliers for Tesla who are relocating to the Bay Area. (D. Ross Cameron/Bay Area News Group) ( D. ROSS CAMERON )
150 Seat Sets X 5 days X 50 weeks would be an annualized rate of 37,500 vehicles per year, on September 11, 2014.
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They might be working 6 days a week - otherwise it would imply that Tesla production is running at 750 cars per week, not at 800 cars a week as reported by several analysts couple of weeks ago. If Futuris indeed working 6 day/week and producing 900 kits per week, and they are are planning to grow their workforce from 160 to 420 workers within a year, than Tesla plans to run at about 2400 cars/week year from now.
The Futuris could have also possibly worked through the Tesla plant shut down, creating the surplus of the seat kits that they are using to complement the their current production over some time. It is not clear how many weeks the surplus of seats made during the Tesla factory shutdown suppose to last, but if one assumes 6 weeks (through the week that includes Sept. 11 date referred to in the article), the surplus will allow to add 10 x 150 / 6 = 250 cars a week to 750 produced during the 5-day week, for a total of 1000 cars...
The overal point is that I certainly hope that Tesla currently runs production at more than 750 cars/week, 37,500 per year.
Futuris has 160 employees in Newark but expects its head count to grow to 420 within a year as the Model X goes into production.
Chickenlittle
Banned
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