Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Here's more of it from zerohedge (I'm not posting everything but rather parts that are mostly missed in the other links so far, suggest you click through to read) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/goldman-warns-tesla-will-need-raise-least-another-6-billion

On balance, the plant tour was positive with Tesla on track to meet its 2014 production objectives. What keeps us more guarded is the aggressive timetable of the gigafactory as well as a potential escalation of capital needs given the planned capacity ramp, model and derivative expansion, service expansion as well as other undisclosed projects. So with 3Q likely to be a noisy quarter and shares seemingly baking in flawless execution at present, we remain sidelined for now.

We value Tesla in Exhibit 1 by modeling three “disruptive” automotive upside cases, in addition to our automotive base and downside cases, through 2025 and by incorporating the option value from stationary storage.

  • Our base case forecast calls for 290k units by 2020, somewhat below Tesla’s 500k assumption, with volumes growing to 760k by 2025 and remains relatively unchanged.
  • Our downside case remains unchanged at projected volumes of 260k by 2020 with Tesla ultimately reaching 500k volumes in 2025.
  • For our three “disruptive” cases, we draw on the experience of past technologies like the iPhone, the Ford Model-T, and selected consumer durables like refrigerators/ laundry appliances/ dishwashers – all of which were widely adopted new technologies that radically revolutionized consumption patterns – in order to generate potential volume paths out to 2025 that show significant upside to our base and downside cases.
When probability weighted (25% disruptive scenarios, 50% base case, and 25% downside case), our automotive valuation implies a price of $190. On top of this we add our $20 grid storage option value, which is derived by evaluating potential earnings from our projected stationary storage opportunity from 2018 through 2020. The total implied value from this methodology comes to $210, implying 20% downside.
 
A good explanation of their valuation they just updated, continues on their previous analogy of Elon vs Jobs/Ford/Maytag

20140919_iTSLA.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/09/20140919_iTSLA.jpg
 
Considering the research notes that have come out moving Tesla down I have a feeling the street is going to be "disappointed" with Q3. So for me I plan to increase my position after Q3 and frankly I'm hoping we hit $225 or so at least. If I am wrong I have a minimum position right now I will gladly watch go up from here. Until Q3 2015 when strong positive cash flow actually materializes it will be easy to spread FUD at will.
 
Until Q3 2015 when strong positive cash flow actually materializes it will be easy to spread FUD at will.

I mean that is par for the course right? haha! I mean we are just going to get a ton of haters that will be anti-Tesla no matter what evidence you present them. Even when they are cash flow positive (that has happened before) they will likely suggest they are continuing to cook the books.
 
I'm theorizing that the nasdaq is falling because Alibaba's opening price keeps inching up.. so everybody needs more money to buy BABA on the open.. so they sell more and more of other stocks...

when are the shares actually going live on the secondary market, and what is the current price (since I can't seem to find either... all I see is the 68$ price they were initially sold for)
 
The GS report seems decent to me as a layman. They looked at it from different angles and made the typical wild guess as to probabilities. GS thinks the most likely scenario is Tesla shipping 750,000 cars a year in 2025.

We can argue with valuations and timelines, but think about that for a second and how insane that would have sounded from any analyst 3 years ago. They're not really asking _if_ Tesla will make it anymore, but just arguing to what degree.
 
I'm theorizing that the nasdaq is falling because Alibaba's opening price keeps inching up.. so everybody needs more money to buy BABA on the open.. so they sell more and more of other stocks...

I'm starting to believe in this BABA-related liquidity hypothesis. I for one am sitting here with cash watching BABA and YHOO.

- - - Updated - - -

Patrick AArchambault ! Sorry, guys, I have to laugh how sensitive investors react on every little move by GS. Stupidity !

I want you all to open your eyes and conclude. Look at his history of recommendations incl. PTs.

QUICK EVERYONE, PUSH SELL ORDERS ON THE MOMOS SO WE CAN PUMP AND DUMP OUR BABA UNDERWRITE!
 
The GS report seems decent to me as a layman. They looked at it from different angles and made the typical wild guess as to probabilities. GS thinks the most likely scenario is Tesla shipping 750,000 cars a year in 2025.

We can argue with valuations and timelines, but think about that for a second and how insane that would have sounded from any analyst 3 years ago. They're not really asking _if_ Tesla will make it anymore, but just arguing to what degree.
Poor tech company? May need to raise money with 2.3 billion cash, Nevada chipping in over a billion, Panasonic 1.3 billion. Giga 5 bil cost over 3 years. Why would they need to do another rise?

- - - Updated - - -

The irony is that his credit line, I bet, secured by TSLA shares...
Yes it is. That was a risk to company if price dropped low enough that he had to sell shares. However we have long passed that point
 
I'm theorizing that the nasdaq is falling because Alibaba's opening price keeps inching up.. so everybody needs more money to buy BABA on the open.. so they sell more and more of other stocks...

Agreed. Everyone wants to jump on the newest hot deal, or chase the new squirrel. I was watching BABA closely this morning, as well as TSLA. BABA may be a great opportunity, but TSLA still is also, and personally I have more confidence in what Tesla is trying to sell than Alibaba. And I'm an investor, not a trader.

I bought more TSLA during what I think is a little dip today.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.