Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[twinklejet]

chickens, i heard on CNBC that sept auto sales were 'down less than expected', edmunds was expecting a particular % drop and the automakers reported higher than expected but its still a drop nonetheless... so maybe its more like they dropped 10% less than expected.. which isn't really anything to rally about?

 

[hershey101]

I know everyone here is an uber $TSLA bull but can this be the first time that TSLA is technically broken and we are in a long term down-trend. Considering that the broader markets look to be in a down-trend over the next 2 months and we are close to breaking a long term support line (pink below) if we hit the 200-day SMA...

 

[aznt1217]

I think we're building in a Q3 Miss based on Andrea James' note. We've passed consolidation and now we are lowering expectations.

 

[hockeythug]

Tesla might miss by a little due to the factory retooling shutdown but I don't they should not be grouped in to the decline in auto sales. They are still supply contrained.

 

[Lump]

I have a up trend line at $231, is that what others are finding?

 

[AlMc]

I think we're building in a Q3 Miss based on Andrea James' note. We've passed consolidation and now we are lowering expectations.

Since we will just make (deliveries) and miss (production) then Q3 all comes down to guidance...as usual.

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I have a up trend line at $231, is that what other are finding?

I am buying LEAPS/STOCK starting at $230....will DCA in just in case we don't see any support before 200dMA which I believe is about $215

 

[Lump]

Since we will just make (deliveries) and miss (production) then Q3 all comes down to guidance...as usual.

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Your hoping & assuming deliveries were met.

 

[hershey101]

I have a up trend line at $231, is that what others are finding?

I see it about $231.50-$232...

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I am buying LEAPS/STOCK starting at $230....will DCA in just in case we don't see any support before 200dMA which I believe is about $215

This would imply a breakdown of the long term uptrend...

 

[FluxCap]

GM's fearful CEO took a shot at Tesla this morning:

GM As Stock Tests Support Near $242

Additionally, Andrea's comments may have served to galvanize feelings of trepidation about Q3 guidance for some.

Additionally, the hedge fund guys are hyping another "correction" at the macro level based on not much fact, and the whole market is selling off.

Most of the negative articles also seem to set an arbitrary "buy the dip on TSLA" number.

Because everyone wants to own cheap TSLA.

 

[AlMc]

Correct: We make guidance on deliveries...barely. I believe that is why we saw a resumption of the end of quarter push. There should have been quite a few cars in the 'pipeline' from the last two quarters where their production exceeded their deliveries, difference being 'pipeline' filling. My opinion (not factual) is that they empty the pipeline to make guidance in a quarter they knew would be an issue becasue of the factory retool. Hopefully now the factory is moving out more cars to make Q4/Yearly guidance on production/deliveries AND can refill the pipeline.

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I see it about $231.50-$232...

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This would imply a breakdown of the long term uptrend...

Yes, I may miss a buying opportunity (be buying as we go up in the $240s) but I feel we test the 200dMA. It may not be now but if not now then with Q3ER. I am not a chartist and don't have the analyrical ability of some on this forum but I believe October may be a tough month (as it is many years) on the market as a whole.

 

[Curt Renz]

The end of quarter push resulted in the delivery on Monday of a fleet of Model S's to a new Chicagoland chauffeur and car rental company that will open for business next Monday.

Website: http://www.emotionchicago.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/emotionchi

 

[FluxCap]

The end of quarter push resulted in the delivery on Monday of a fleet of Model S's to a new Chicagoland chauffeur and car rental company that will open for business next Monday.

Website: http://www.emotionchicago.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/emotionchi

I love it! In other news, I'm starting a Model S rental company.

Rental Rates

​

RATES:

Daily: $299/Day
Hourly: $35/Hour

 

[mitch672]

"IndsideEVs" reports that Tesla delivered 2,500 Model S's for September, in the U.S. the most ever in a single month.

Tesla Model S Sets All-Time Sales Record In U.S. In September

 

[chickensevil]

chickens, i heard on CNBC that sept auto sales were 'down less than expected', edmunds was expecting a particular % drop and the automakers reported higher than expected but its still a drop nonetheless... so maybe its more like they dropped 10% less than expected.. which isn't really anything to rally about?

Oh, well crap... nevermind then... I hate it when I misread news reports...

So this is why I hate morning meetings that are scheduled around market openings... lol, I come back to find everything gone to crap.

I think since we have finally broke through 240 we will see some form of touching the ~230-231 mark. Keeping in mind we still have about 2 weeks of the "2 month cycle" before we start to go outside those marks, If we don't see something move us up again, then I also agree we might be technically broken and in a new unknown cycle pattern. Here is hoping for a hold at the 200 SMA. By the time we get to it it might be up to around 220.

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"IndsideEVs" reports that Tesla delivered 2,500 Model S's for September, in the U.S. the most ever in a single month.

Tesla Model S Sets All-Time Sales Record In U.S. In September

Yeah! Take that Paulo Santos Of course he will likely go on about some "depriving the US, and now dumping all that pent up demand" nonsense to make an excuse for it. It did seem like everything in NA was pointing to a very hard push to make up for lost ground on due to the shutdown.

To me what this tells me is that Tesla really can tap into demand "at-will" as Elon talked about on the CC. This is strong evidence of that and I suspect we will see a dramatic drop in Oct/Nov on NA sales because of that reason, since they will have pushed more than they probably should have into NA just to avoid any miss on guidance.

But if China is as strong as they say, we should still be fine overall since I think over the next three months we can balance everything out to hit the targets we need to and reach that 13k number. It is going to be a very interesting next 3 months to see what can be achieved and if there really is a global demand of MS at a 50k run rate.

By the way, I love that line from the article:

Those naysayers who insist that demand for the Tesla Model S is waning can go find a pillow to cry under now.

 

[jhm]

GM's fearful CEO took a shot at Tesla this morning:

GM As Stock Tests Support Near $242


Additionally, Andrea's comments may have served to galvanize feelings of trepidation about Q3 guidance for some.

Additionally, the hedge fund guys are hyping another "correction" at the macro level based on not much fact, and the whole market is selling off.

Most of the negative articles also seem to set an arbitrary "buy the dip on TSLA" number.

Because everyone wants to own cheap TSLA.

If institutionals are signaling to retail to buy the dip in the $200 to $220 range, I would suspect they'll get in in the $220 to $230 range, ahead of retail. The signal does two things: it scares away retail demand until the institutionals have loaded up and set up retail to buy if it goes below 220. Lower price of entry, lower risk past entry.

So if you want to be played by the big boys, wait until 220 or lower. As for me, I was happy to buy this morning at 238.

 

[AlMc]

The push in September to NA customers is telling us why many NA customers were complaining about their delivery dates being moved to December. TM continues to meet numbers by producing cars for overseas delivery the first 6 weeks of every quarter and NA production the last 6 weeks.

 

[MartinAustin]

Seems like TSLA stopped selling off at 12:52 EST. It's now 1% off the low and climbing.

 

[RobStark]

That data is 3 months old, it's from the end of last quarter, 6/30.

Point is the data is out there, google for it and you will find it.

 

[chickensevil]

seems like we are healthily moving in the opposite direction of the Nasdaq for the past couple of hours. Which continues to reaffirm the support triggers on the 235 levels.

 

[Curt Renz]

Seems like TSLA stopped selling off at 12:52 EST. It's now 1% off the low and climbing.

This could be the level at which weak longs have gotten out and been replaced by strong longs who intend to hold for the long term. Many of the latter could be new Model S owners who became so pleased that they wanted to own the stock. There are more of them every day, and they could be taking over shares previously owned by institutions. It is this growing group of long term shareholders that makes it so difficult for short sellers to stay profitable in the long run. This situation is so unlike that with most companies, but short sellers are oblivious.

Many shorts are too greedy and stubborn to cover at bottoms like we may be seeing today. So whenever good news is released by the company, they become forced to cover at higher prices. That squeezes the price even higher. This pattern has repeated several times over the last year, but with higher lows and higher highs. It may continue until potential short sellers become fully convinced that the company is here to stay and could dominate its industry. I suspect they will have to soon learn their lesson or go broke.