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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Volume exceeded 170,000 on heavy selling. Currently negative over $16 (over 6% drop)... I have a feeling the market was expecting Model X or Model 3 thanks to that stupid hyped up report by GER and all the speculations.. along with all the self-denials when EM stated he will NOT have any comment about those future models... sigh

Maybe my "sell on the news" prediction was correct. I was not expecting to be impressed last night without an X reveal, but I was very impressed with the P85D and automatic driving tech.

The Dual Motor reveal implicitly shows that the Model X will have mind blowing performance and that the AWD will be an efficiency bonus instead of a penalty.
 
Volume exceeded 170,000 on heavy selling. Currently negative over $16 (over 6% drop)... I have a feeling the market was expecting Model X or Model 3 thanks to that stupid hyped up report by GER and all the speculations.. along with all the self-denials when EM stated he will NOT have any comment about those future models... sigh

Yeah, I feared this might happen Yesterday which is why I was positioning myself for down or up. Looks like we are going to go down... waaaayyyy down. *gulp*

I would caution any immediate reaction to purchase shares since when this thing goes hot, it is likely to continue it's downward spiral. Unless someone is just manipulating the stock price super hard core... But I don't think I would buy that.

I am also sorta getting my wish, premarket on the Nasdaq is also down. So the negative market conditions combined with the negative perception on TSLA is causing the stock to die off. I would feel comfortable recommending accumulation in the 230s and below, but I wouldn't touch this thing until we get at least 30 minutes into live trading to solidify the direction of the stock. If they are manipulating it, that will be killed off once live trading starts.

Note again, there is nothing wrong here with Tesla the company. Q3 is still a little bit up in the air on how that will be taken, but if we drop again, I would still be happy with whatever purchases you can make since this is going to impact demand in a positive way, and we still know nothing about the Model X or Model 3!

About the price, it was already mentioned before, but just want to make this really clear, the same spec'd car I bought in March for 96k can be had (with the autopilot/techpackage) for 94k. A fully spec'd car will run you around the same price as before as well. So this is really great for consumers. Like REALLY great. The only possible negative is resale value which is yet to be seen.
 
Wow, down to $242 in premarket. Price is going back to levels before Musk's D tweet. I see this as a gift to buyers.

Clearly we know now that Tesla is a more capable innovator. D option is affordable. I expect uptake to exceed 50%. Tech option price is well justified with autopilot. So uptake should approach 100%. So I expect the ASP just got an incremental $3000 or more.
 
Note again, there is nothing wrong here with Tesla the company. Q3 is still a little bit up in the air on how that will be taken, but if we drop again, I would still be happy with whatever purchases you can make since this is going to impact demand in a positive way, and we still know nothing about the Model X or Model 3!

This is an important point and no-one with good insight in to the company should get scared seeing the current drop in pre-market (-6%) but instead view this as a trading opportunity. In fact last night shows the enormous first-mover advantage that Tesla still has and IMO their lead over the competition seems to actually increase.
 
I'm thinking about selling my puts first thing and buying a few more calls. I don't see how the market could be that disappointed over this. The cat was out of the bag yesterday about no X or 3 reveal.

My disclaimer is that I'm a noob and probably wrong.
 
I'm thinking about selling my puts first thing and buying a few more calls. I don't see how the market could be that disappointed over this. The cat was out of the bag yesterday about no X or 3 reveal.

My disclaimer is that I'm a noob and probably wrong.

I don't know how much more downside we will get after the open, we are going to be gapping way down already and volatility is going to be crazy. Calls far out expiration might be a good idea though.
 
There was an article today in one of the main Swedish newspapers where Audis CEO is interviewed on a few topics, including autonomous driving, EV's and Tesla. I've cut out the parts that wasn't about the aforementioned and translated it into English. It's quite interesting, especially the autonomous driving and Audis future plans. Here's a link to the original article (it's in Swedish)
Audis uppvisning i Paris | Motor | SvD
I'm aware that I might be posting it in an inappropriate thread but I figured this is where most people hang out and we're just digesting and talking about last nights event. Feel free to move it mods.

”Audi A8 will be completely autonomous by 2016”
“Audi to have autonomous cars in traffic by 2016”, says the CEO of Audi, Rupert Stadler in a SvD-interview (one of the main Swedish news papers). He also says that Tesla has taken a big risk.

Then he proceeds, in full verbiage, to talk about Audis efforts on electric vehicles.

- The coming years we’ll reduce the Co2 emissions by 10 – 15 % for petrol and diesel cars. But that is not enough to reach the increasingly harder Co2 emission regulations. That’s why we’ve strategically invested heavily on plug in-hybrids.

- With the next generation batteries we’ll have cars that’ll do 400 kilometers (249 miles) on electricity, then we’ll be ready for electric vehicles.

But there is a brand called Tesla which already offers that. What’s your take on that?
Ruperts verbiage lessens.

- Uhm, we’re aware of Tesla, of course. There has been three fires, where Tesla vehicles caught on fire. What do I mean to say by that, well, they took a big risk, a risk which a big player in the auto industry would never take.


Don’t you think Tesla is of enough good quality?

- I can’t judge that. But we have to give 8 years warranty on the batteries and when we give warranty we prove that the warranty works.

Rupert then gives Tesla acknowledgment for bringing a high performance car to the market.


It’s noticeable that the subject of Tesla is sensitive. Tesla came from nowhere into the premium car market with an electric vehicle (albeit heavy) which can be driven more than 400 kilometers (249 miles) on batteries that are basically standardized laptop batteries, and left the competition behind them.

Then we touch on another future aspect.

- We’re much more advanced in autonomous driving technology than many people think. Next generation Audi A8 will be equipped with an option whereby the car drives completely by itself in 2016.

As late as August this year a self driving Audi A7 was tested on a public highway in Florida. It accelerated, steered and was breaking by itself in speeds up to 60 kilometers per hour (37 mph).

Rupert Stadler elaborates his reasoning and says it’s about driving on narrower roads, but even about safety and comfort and he exemplifies with occasions when there are long traffic queues on the highways.

- Then the driver can dedicate himself to working or speaking on the phone but still have a little attention on the road.
 
Hello everyone, been lurking a while but finally made an account.

I just realized something important about the AWD motors (S60D, S85D):
BMW 320i engine: 180 horsepower
Tesla AWD motor: 188 horsepower

Tesla is using AWD to shake out issues with Gen 3's powertrain long before its release, particularly with reliability. This is part of the reason why AWD is only $4k. Simple, but brilliant.
 
Hello everyone, been lurking a while but finally made an account.

I just realized something important about the AWD motors (S60D, S85D):
BMW 320i engine: 180 horsepower
Tesla AWD motor: 188 horsepower

Tesla is using AWD to shake out issues with Gen 3's powertrain long before its release, particularly with reliability. This is part of the reason why AWD is only $4k. Simple, but brilliant.

Good observation. I believe it's rather likely that the front motor from the P85D will be the standard motor in the entry level Model 3.

- - - Updated - - -

There was an article today in one of the main Swedish newspapers where Audis CEO is interviewed on a few topics, including autonomous driving, EV's and Tesla. I've cut out the parts that wasn't about the aforementioned and translated it into English. It's quite interesting, especially the autonomous driving and Audis future plans. Here's a link to the original article (it's in Swedish)
Audis uppvisning i Paris | Motor | SvD

Thanks for a great translation. To add to the part where "Tesla is sensitive to Audi" I'd like to add that I'm about 100% certain that Audi had to scrap their R8 e-tron simply due to the fact that the Model S came out. If they hade gone public with it people would have laughed at them: it would have been much more expensive, with shorter range, less space and poorer acceleration than a Model S. We have no definitive evidence of this but everything points to the fact that Audi were about to release the R8 e-tron in 2013.
 
Clearly we know now that Tesla is a more capable innovator. D option is affordable. I expect uptake to exceed 50%. Tech option price is well justified with autopilot. So uptake should approach 100%. So I expect the ASP just got an incremental $3000 or more.

When we bought a Lexus RX 300 in Texas 12 years ago, we opted out of AWD. It cost several thousand dollars more and salesman said 80% of buyers in San Antonio don't buy it. It also dinged gas mileage by 10% or so.

No way I see that happening with Model S AWD.

In the S60 and S85 you get it for $4,000. It increases range approximately 10% - if you had 10% more batteries that alone would likely cost you a couple thousand dollars. + it improves traction/stability, top speed, about the same 0-60, probably helps tire wear, etc., not to mention all of that in aggregate improving the overall driving experience. It's a slam dunk. I think 50% is probably low. Agree with high 90% range for A-suite.

BTW - Market reaction too all this is ridiculous. If last night wasn't the most obvious foreshadowing that the Model X will be ridiculously awesome, I don't know what is. And then projecting to Model 3...

Better start working two shifts on the gigafactory.
 
wowzers almost 500,000 shares traded pre market..

Yep. This looks like it could be a case of we on this forum immediately understanding the massive long-term benefit to shareholders and owners of this announcement, but the market having been set up for a short term fail by disingenuous "predictions" of Model X and even Model 3 reveal, even after Elon said in the Vanity Fair interview that those were emphatically not true. So far I'm glad I purchased my strangle yesterday.
 
Can someone offer advice to a newbie who gambled on short term options for this announcement?

I hold Oct 18th $300 calls. I'm debating selling them today versus holding them another day or two and hoping for a rebound. How can I calculate the expected loss due to time value compared to hopeful gain from stock rebound if I hold another day, or two?
 
Can someone offer advice to a newbie who gambled on short term options for this announcement?

I hold Oct 18th $300 calls. I'm debating selling them today versus holding them another day or two and hoping for a rebound. How can I calculate the expected loss due to time value compared to hopeful gain from stock rebound if I hold another day, or two?
Long call (bullish) calculator
 
Can someone offer advice to a newbie who gambled on short term options for this announcement?

I hold Oct 18th $300 calls. I'm debating selling them today versus holding them another day or two and hoping for a rebound. How can I calculate the expected loss due to time value compared to hopeful gain from stock rebound if I hold another day, or two?

You can't calculate with certainty, but you can use this tool to make some guesses:

Long call (bullish) calculator

Edit: Familial beat me to it.
 
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