Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Perfectlogic]

Look at 2013Q3ER. We 'beat' delivery and production guidance and were in a downward trend (like now) and EM gave NO guidance resulting in a further drop. I am not saying that will happen this time but it has happened in the past where we all 'group thought' that TSLA had good and bad things already priced in to find out at an ER that the market disagreed.

Do you really see Elon not giving any guidance at Q3 earnings? He has ireterated that they will make the 35k for 2014 so many times without a doubt in his voice, I think it is very unlikely he will not reiterate this again. I have heard from so many sources that we should already be at a 1k/week rate now which should be adequate. Can't see how the outlook on 2015 can be poor either, they have just improved their product significantly with Credit Suisse talking about production capacity of 150k in the second half of the year, if panasonic can ramp up their production 2015 could be incredible.

 

[AlMc]

i think the difference was there was rumors out there of a tremendous beat coming from that faulty VIN analysis so there was 'buy on the rumor' and when news came out as not a major beat and it was time for those rumor-buyers to sell there was no buyers to buy from them so it tanked the stock price....
...I think the same thing just happened a bit with this "unveil the D" event...rumors were out there that it would be the final X or Model 3 reveal but neither happened and same result combined with a market correction.

however, for Q3 there is no 'buy on the rumor' going on so I don't think there will be any additional selling pressure from those players even if the results are just as expected...if below expected I could see a minor drop but if guidance is strong I think that may push the stock up

just to add...perhaps for this Q3 there is even a 'short on the rumor' going on

Agree with your thoughts. The VIN counting (which I was part of, trying to get a handle on production/delivery numbers) was the major reason for the drop, but it would have been mitigated by a strong CC from EM. If you recall, he was not his usual upbeat self, sounded half asleep. Some speculated he was frustrated that he wanted to say more about the GF but could not as the negotiations were ongoing. Whatever the reason, EM can help this Q3ER with a good CC/guidance. I feel it will be needed as I believe the reality (and the group 'think') is that is we made delivery/production guidance it will not be a significant beat.

 

[Jack6591]

Investing in tsla continually improves (exercises) my emotional IQ. It amazes me how quickly the emotional timbre of this board changes.

Has anything substantively changed since last Thursday morning?

 

[AlMc]

Investing in tsla continually improves (exercises) my emotional IQ. It amazes me how quickly the emotional timbre of this board changes.

Has anything substantively changed since last Thursday morning?

That would be the very nature of the short term forum. Hopefully, the long term forum is a little more even keeled.

The long term prospects of TM and TSLA have not changed since Thursday but the short term ones have.

 

[Mycroft]

The only thing changed for me is that I'm even more certain that Tesla is changing the auto industry as much or more than Apple did in cell phones.

Investing in tsla continually improves (exercises) my emotional IQ. It amazes me how quickly the emotional timbre of this board changes.

Has anything substantively changed since last Thursday morning?

 

[Perfectlogic]

Has anything substantively changed since last Thursday morning?

The short term bears will always be more outspoken in times when they get it right as people like to share their wins.

 

[chickensevil]

Investing in tsla continually improves (exercises) my emotional IQ. It amazes me how quickly the emotional timbre of this board changes.

Has anything substantively changed since last Thursday morning?

Nope, I think it is just tough for those with tons of shares to not get upset seeing their values plummet so sharply. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and relax. The largest contributing factor to all of this is the macro-market not doing so well. Sept/Oct are historically bad months for the macro-market anyway. As long as nothing crazy happens to the financials when Q3 hits, we should be fine and as stated by many people the key here is the future guidance and outlook.

1: We have a new awesome set of options to drive people to buy the Model S (or upgrade their old ones)... both sets of features were things I KNOW many people were holding out on purchasing a Model S specifically because it didn't have these things. So if there was ever any doubt about demand (as if?) there is certainly no doubt anymore that this will give a nice demand boost which is going to hit both Q4 and Q1/15. This is all well timed given the increased production rate and testing those waters
2: As stated production keeps going up. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be at 1k by the start of Q4, and we have future guidance already for them to make it all the way to 2k by the end of next year (I am betting this ends up getting revised to end of Q3...)
3: GM keeps going up. I don't expect this to chance any time soon either.
4: Model X is just on the horizon. We should see the Betas any day now.

Am I missing something (short term wise)??? I mean the story hasn't changed, the company is executing about as perfect as you can. This, to me, screams buying opportunity. Don't be the one in 2 months saying "boy I wish I had listened to you guys and bought when it was at 220$." I have seen that happen 2 times now, don't repeat the mistake. Even if we dip into the low 200s, I would not be too worried UNLESS we get something seriously negative back about the company or the macro-market just dies on us (PS: You can hedge against a Macro collapse by buying some way OTM puts on something like QQQ or even TSLA).

 

[justdoit]

I think we might see one or two relief days where we bounce back up to $230's but wouldn't be surprised if we come back down and challenge $220 again. I'm not buying yet b/c I think if we stay in this 220/230 range for a bit then IV will come down even more. Don't see any reason for us to jump back above 240 but one tweet and we can cross it in no time

 

[Johan]

Am I missing something (short term wise)??? I mean the story hasn't changed, the company is executing about as perfect as you can. This, to me, screams buying opportunity. Don't be the one in 2 months saying "boy I wish I had listened to you guys and bought when it was at 220$." I have seen that happen 2 times now, don't repeat the mistake. Even if we dip into the low 200s, I would not be too worried UNLESS we get something seriously negative back about the company or the macro-market just dies on us (PS: You can hedge against a Macro collapse by buying some way OTM puts on something like QQQ or even TSLA).

You're missing nothing. The story is as strong as ever and with the D and the P85D my faith in Tesla is higher than ever. I was buying calls like a madman earlier today. October so far has been too predictable short-term wise. Most of the so called "short term bears" here are ultra-über-longterm bulls but why not trade TSLA both ways when you have a good feel for the in-and-outs of the stock?!?

 

[chickensevil]

You're missing nothing. The story is as strong as ever and with the D and the P85D my faith in Tesla is higher than ever. I was buying calls like a madman earlier today. October so far has been too predictable short-term wise. Most of the so called "short term bears" here are ultra-über-longterm bulls but why not trade TSLA both ways when you have a good feel for the in-and-outs of the stock?!?

Ok, I thought I had hit everything in my list, I was just cross checking.

Yeah, and no stock trades straight up. I would concur on it being mostly predicable which is why I was able to make money as it went down. I feel like if today was not the bottom, that we are VERY CLOSE to the bottom. I would expect as those catalysts get picked up by investors it will drive the price up in no time. I have one last protective put at 205 and then the rest of everything is calls expecting the stock to return back to its former glory.

 

[Johan]

By the way som very perceptive people before me on this forum have pointed it out, and I pointed it out just a couple of days ago: The 40 week SMA has historically been and extremely good indicator of local bottoms. Today's bottom was $221. Guess what the 40-week SMA is pinned at right now? $221.05. I agree with Citizen-T up thread, today was the bottom. We might trade in a lowish band now both before and after Q3, but my bet is that was the bottom for now and in 3-4 months time we're on to the next peak. Also I put my money where my mouth is.

 

[Papafox]

Closed 2 put positions ~$225, going to hold on to the last put for a couple more days.

Lump, I'll give you credit for calling this one right, at least for the first two puts.

 

[mibaro2]

It will be interesting to see if the Tesla Tuesday jinx plays out tomorrow. Since TSLA normally trades lower on Tuesdays, it would normally trade lower tomorrow.
But after how much it has dropped in the last few days, I don't think this trend will apply tomorrow.
Thoughts?

Personally, I think it will rebound tomorrow.

 

[AlMc]

A potential short term negative:Model S owner launches petition demanding retrofit; Tesla stock continues slide | SiliconBeat

 

[SteveG3]

Agree with your thoughts. The VIN counting (which I was part of, trying to get a handle on production/delivery numbers) was the major reason for the drop, but it would have been mitigated by a strong CC from EM. If you recall, he was not his usual upbeat self, sounded half asleep. Some speculated he was frustrated that he wanted to say more about the GF but could not as the negotiations were ongoing. Whatever the reason, EM can help this Q3ER with a good CC/guidance. I feel it will be needed as I believe the reality (and the group 'think') is that is we made delivery/production guidance it will not be a significant beat.

I agree. I know it probably sounds like a weak or lame point to someone just reading this, but Elon flat out sounded beat on that earnings call. Not saying that was the only reason the stock went down after that call, but I absolutely think it contributed.

- - - Updated - - -

Am I missing something (short term wise)??? I mean the story hasn't changed, the company is executing about as perfect as you can. This, to me, screams buying opportunity. Don't be the one in 2 months saying "boy I wish I had listened to you guys and bought when it was at 220$." I have seen that happen 2 times now, don't repeat the mistake. Even if we dip into the low 200s, I would not be too worried UNLESS we get something seriously negative back about the company or the macro-market just dies on us (PS: You can hedge against a Macro collapse by buying some way OTM puts on something like QQQ or even TSLA).

While I agree the story hasn't changed, I would suggest that this is an attractive price here but not a "screaming buying opportunity." I think there is substantial chance the overall markets could go down 20% and Tesla taken down with it. Tesla's moves get magnified by traders, and an overall market dip combined with some Tesla tempest in a teapot FUDDED like crazy and played by the traders could make the 220s look like the good old days. FWIW, to me main tempest in teapot candidates near term are, something out of Q3 report and/or Consumer Reports reliability survey due in two weeks. I think it's about 50/50 that their survey downgrades reliability... though I think if it does CR may comment about the small size of the anonymous sample, and the potential for corrupted data.

That said, potential catalysts pre earnings report include more analysts coming out and defending the stock and making the case for the significance of Thursday's developments.

I think a substantial drop from here is less likely to happen than not, but it could. I think it's close to a 50% chance. I went slightly into margin on Friday around $240, but am saving the rest of my buying power in case we have a "screaming buying opportunity."

 

[chickensevil]

A potential short term negative:Model S owner launches petition demanding retrofit; Tesla stock continues slide | SiliconBeat

This is just silly. I can't believe people are that upset about this... None of the other upgrades I have seen anyone get this heated over. As someone who really wishes they had the latest features I feel like this is crazy.

 

[v12 to 12v]

A potential short term negative:Model S owner launches petition demanding retrofit; Tesla stock continues slide | SiliconBeat

How can someone demand a retrofit that isn't possible?

Every Tesla owner has watched Tesla evolve quickly. All of us have watched new features roll out days or weeks after we made a commitment. It boils down to the fact there is no clean way to make a transition in a rapidly developing product. There will always be something new around the corner. The VIN issuance appeared to be brought to a temporary halt to accommodate the new options for recent customers.

I doubt the petition will get anywhere, just as issues with previous changes got nowhere.

Sincerely,
A battery

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I like this article that was linked to the Silicon Beat article even though the Model S isn't just a gadget in my eyes.
The Real Reason Investors Dump Stocks After Big Gadget Announcements | WIRED

 

[Curt Renz]

This is just silly. I can't believe people are that upset about this... None of the other upgrades I have seen anyone get this heated over. As someone who really wishes they had the latest features I feel like this is crazy.

Indeed this is the case with virtually every manufacturer not stuck in the mud and willing to innovate. Products are constantly being upgraded. If one always waits for the newer model, one will never buy anything. Most people understand this. Yet there will always be those who grumble due to their imperfect timing. They knew what they were buying when they placed their orders. At least with cars they can be traded in; most other outdated products hit the junk bin after the newer version has been purchased. The advertising industry ought to give a Clio award to the person who coined the term "New and Improved".

 

[FluxCap]

I think we just saw the bottom. There are a lot of funds with really deep pockets that have an interest in keeping us above the 200-day. I don't think investors let TSLA fall below that level until there is incrementally bad news. If the Q3 report disappoints on guidance for instance.

I agree and placed my bets accordingly. Sold a few protective puts this morning in the low 220's, and flipped them right into near-term calls.

The market is currently being brought down (manipulated) by the powers behind global oil production and sales (more than normal). I see this as even further long-term strength for Tesla Motors. However, I do not know how far down the overall market has to go in the near term. If you think TSLA is having a bad time of things, check out the recent price history of "light sweet crude" oil futures, which are now trading well below their 200-day MA:

 

[FluxCap]

Additionally, here's a quote from Adam Jonas' October 10th TSLA report (day after the event) that, despite his recent odd blatherings, is of interest: