Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Perfectlogic]

I remember myself hearing Elon said they sold all, like, no leftovers at all.. but here you get different info:
Updated 2015 Teslas Mean Black Friday Discounts - Consumer Reports News

"A source inside Tesla has told us that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, that the company is selling at a discount."

I am shareholder, and I am mostly positive about tesla, but when something bad pops up, 99% I dont care, but sometimes it makes me double check, or ask for comments here

It just doesn't make any sense, Tesla has a backlog of orders, when they produce a car they have a buyer for that specific car already, is it even possible to cancel after the car goes into production? Even if it is, 1800 cancellations in the small window from production start to delivery seems highly unlikely.

 

[Renaud]

It just doesn't make any sense, Tesla has a backlog of orders, when they produce a car they have a buyer for that specific car already, is it even possible to cancel after the car goes into production? Even if it is, 1800 cancellations in the small window from production start to delivery seems highly unlikely.

No, it doesn't make sense at all, but in the short term, does it matter what sense it makes or not?
It will puzzle people, it wil create confusion and might be a weapon for a short attack.
Do we have to worry that if this appears on a newsfeed it will create a little storm and pull back?

Those kind of article just make me angry: do the guys writing it know that spreading wrong information has consequences?

 

[allz]

That is why I am asking you guys for a comment - this is short term thread, so t osay!
ConsumerReport is kind of legit website, isn't it?
I am not from US, and I can not tell which one is super legit or not.
Thats the reason I started to ask about it here. usually I sort out BS & fraud from those shady articles and "news".. but this one made me confused.

 

[AlMc]

That is why I am asking you guys for a comment - this is short term thread, so t osay!
ConsumerReport is kind of legit website, isn't it?
I am not from US, and I can not tell which one is super legit or not.
Thats the reason I started to ask about it here. usually I sort out BS & fraud from those shady articles and "news".. but this one made me confused.

This might help: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog...ing-apart-the-brokerages-takedown-of-tesla/2/

 

[schonelucht]

Well, we know that for nearly all quarters Tesla produced more cars than it reported as delivered. Some guy ran the numbers and the running difference is up to a few thousand cars now. Somehow these cars were not ready to be sold. But why? Some are probably on a boat to someplace (although we also know that Tesla does it damn best to minimize that number between quarters). Some are absolutely unmissable as service loaners. There may be other reasons. But there is absolutely not clarity why the difference is there and why it is growing. Remarks like Elon's without much context don't help the confusion about this issue.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Well, we know that for nearly all quarters Tesla produced more cars than it reported as delivered. Some guy ran the numbers and the running difference is up to a few thousand cars now. Somehow these cars were not ready to be sold. But why? Some are probably on a boat to someplace (although we also know that Tesla does it damn best to minimize that number between quarters). Some are absolutely unmissable as service loaners. There may be other reasons. But there is absolutely not clarity why the difference is there and why it is growing. Remarks like Elon's without much context don't help the confusion about this issue.

I bet he is gathered cars over the quarters, infused them with sofisticated AI and trained them in carrilla warfare with plans to take over the world and put an end to all the Tesla FUD.

 

[JRP3]

This might help: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrog...ing-apart-the-brokerages-takedown-of-tesla/2/

That looks like a reasonable take down of Lovallo's premise but it doesn't directly contradict what CR is claiming for available cars at a discount.

 

[aznt1217]

That looks like a reasonable take down of Lovallo's premise but it doesn't directly contradict what CR is claiming for available cars at a discount.

I honestly don't know how John Lovallo is still covering Tesla or any company for that matter. His analysis is SO poor.

But in regards to the CR article. I suspect that number includes loaners/trade-in's. The pricing discount methodology mentioned is the formula Tesla uses on the loaner and showroom fleet.

 

[chickensevil]

Let me add some more clarity to this, they most certainly did not sell off ALL of their inventory at the end of the quarter because that would be bad for business. Having totally empty showrooms, having 0 loaners... Both of these would be bad for the company. I witnessed this first hand at the end of the quarter since I had taken a 60kW loaner (that is saying a lot that the 60 was all they had to offer me) and had recently been by the store in Bethesda, MD to see that they had only a 60kW test drive car (yuk! Really?) and a regular 85 in the showroom... where usually they have at least 2 show cars and 2 test cars. So they had depleted their inventory where they could, but it was not like they were going to dump out EVERYTHING. That would just be bad for business. I mean look at all the flak they got bad at the end of last year where they sold of practically all of their loaner fleet making customers VERY upset that they couldn't get a Tesla loaner. They said they would work hard not to make that mistake again.

Hopefully this clears it up. Some.

 

[aznt1217]

Let me add some more clarity to this, they most certainly did not sell off ALL of their inventory at the end of the quarter because that would be bad for business. Having totally empty showrooms, having 0 loaners... Both of these would be bad for the company. I witnessed this first hand at the end of the quarter since I had taken a 60kW loaner (that is saying a lot that the 60 was all they had to offer me) and had recently been by the store in Bethesda, MD to see that they had only a 60kW test drive car (yuk! Really?) and a regular 85 in the showroom... where usually they have at least 2 show cars and 2 test cars. So they had depleted their inventory where they could, but it was not like they were going to dump out EVERYTHING. That would just be bad for business. I mean look at all the flak they got bad at the end of last year where they sold of practically all of their loaner fleet making customers VERY upset that they couldn't get a Tesla loaner. They said they would work hard not to make that mistake again.

Hopefully this clears it up. Some.

Ah yes...common sense for us TMCer's. I think most stores keep 1 car for showrooms and 1 for test drives at a minimum. Tesla might be at a place where they are comfortable to sell them to replace with newer cars because they caught up so they can replenish these faster.

 

[Thumper]

The Consumer Reports article makes perfect sense to me. 1% per month and a dollar per mile off of list was always the discount on used showroom and loaner models wasn't it? It also makes sense to me that Tesla would want to sell, not dump, most of their inventory of non-AWD cars in stock. Where is the alarm?

 

[Chickenlittle]

The Consumer Reports article makes perfect sense to me. 1% per month and a dollar per mile off of list was always the discount on used showroom and loaner models wasn't it? It also makes sense to me that Tesla would want to sell, not dump, most of their inventory of non-AWD cars in stock. Where is the alarm?

It's not the non AWD models they are selling off, it's the non sensor cars

 

[twinklejet]

So my indicator says we will close at or below 250.. hope its wrong?

 

[willowspuppy]

I remember myself hearing Elon said they sold all, like, no leftovers at all.. but here you get different info:
Updated 2015 Teslas Mean Black Friday Discounts - Consumer Reports News

"A source inside Tesla has told us that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, that the company is selling at a discount."

I am shareholder, and I am mostly positive about tesla, but when something bad pops up, 99% I dont care, but sometimes it makes me double check, or ask for comments here

Where did you get the number 2300 from? I just checked the article and did not find this number:

"A source inside Tesla points out that remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, are available at a discount."

 

[jhm]

Roll the tag team voice over, year end clearance event ads now! Oh, wait, this is Tesla, never mind.

 

[ckessel]

I remember myself hearing Elon said they sold all, like, no leftovers at all.. but here you get different info:
Updated 2015 Teslas Mean Black Friday Discounts - Consumer Reports News

You realize a tremendous amount of time passed, and therefore production that occurred, between the end of Q3 when Tesla was emptying supplies and when Elon made that comment on the ER call?

 

[chickensevil]

The Consumer Reports article makes perfect sense to me. 1% per month and a dollar per mile off of list was always the discount on used showroom and loaner models wasn't it? It also makes sense to me that Tesla would want to sell, not dump, most of their inventory of non-AWD cars in stock. Where is the alarm?

Which is actually not true, because they recently upped the discount on non-sensor package cars to a 2% discount per month. I don't even know if they have any left at this point but clearly they had extra motivation to dump that inventory out of the pipe. I couldn't tell you when that started either... but likely at some point early into Q4.

But with regard to that final bench stock they would cycle that out as they replaced them out with the newer stuff so I would put that as almost a 1 for 1 swap... maybe a bit worse because they need to replenish what they also sold off at the end of Q3 already.

- - - Updated - - -

Either way, this is all pretty much non-news... and certainly not anything to be of concern like it seems to be made out to be.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Looks like CR revised the article to take out the 2,300 number

 

[InTheShadows]

Which is actually not true, because they recently upped the discount on non-sensor package cars to a 2% discount per month. I don't even know if they have any left at this point but clearly they had extra motivation to dump that inventory out of the pipe. I couldn't tell you when that started either... but likely at some point early into Q4.

But with regard to that final bench stock they would cycle that out as they replaced them out with the newer stuff so I would put that as almost a 1 for 1 swap... maybe a bit worse because they need to replenish what they also sold off at the end of Q3 already.

- - - Updated - - -

Either way, this is all pretty much non-news... and certainly not anything to be of concern like it seems to be made out to be.

The ranger just picked up the same black 60 loaner that Devon service center has had for at least 6 months now. It does not have sensors and it has 2700 miles on it. So not "all" cars were sold and there are still some that are in service.

Regardless I don't see this as an issue, 2000 cars is just a blip at this point. Even if they do discount them it will be offset by the higher margins of the P85D this quarter.

 

[Chickenlittle]

So my indicator says we will close at or below 250.. hope its wrong?

i would not disagree with you. suspect that 250 will be the mark it trades around for a while (deliberately not defining a while)