Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

My impression looking at volume and price movements today is that sellers are not attacking the price. Volume spikes tend to move the price up instead of driving it down. Also the China issues could be exploited much more aggressively. So I am puzzled why the bears are easing up today. Are the big money shorts covering?

 

[mibaro2]

FYI : No mention of Tesla or icar at the Apple event today. Neither aapl or tsla moved significantly during the event.

 

[Papafox]

So I am puzzled why the bears are easing up today. Are the big money shorts covering?

The continuous bear attack of recent weeks seems to be orchestrated for a purpose, and I suspect that purpose is to allow shorts to cover. We see LOTS of support when TSLA drops below 200, and so the reward vs. risk equation for being short right now makes no sense. Q1 ER could be really scary for shorts too. Thus, the smart shorts are going to want to get out soon and during this bear attack strikes me as the logical time to do so.

You also see bulls buying shares today, too. I see both "weak longs" and "strong longs" from this forum in buying mode today. All I could afford was one June call contract, but I jumped in today too. The bulls buying today are what I would call "informed bulls".

 

[Newb]

The continuous bear attack of recent weeks seems to be orchestrated for a purpose, and I suspect that purpose is to allow shorts to cover.

Agreed, but I've got the feeling that the FUD will continue to flourish until the first deliveries (and thereby the unveiling) of Model X in late summer.

I used to be very optimistic about short-term TSLA (still very optimistic about long-term) and added more shares to my long position at around ~210s. I never thought we'd see the 180s again.

And I came to think that the FUDsters will only loose ground (and will eventually be silenced for a couple of weeks), only after we'll get to see the final Model X, read first-hand reviews from automobile journalists ravished by its features, and actually experience that Tesla is able to execute on Model X production start and ramp up in Q3.

Thus, I expect TSLA to follow the downward trend for quite some time, unless there's a surprise clay model unveiling of Model 3, or something like that.

 

[Krugerrand]

The head-in-the-sand absolute refusal to accept the possibility of negative news is not how we get a balanced, informed discussion.

I've not see anyone on here be of the 'head-in-the-sand' type. At all. Not even a little.

Balanced, informed discussion is not measured by the amount of positive news items being equal to the amount of negative news items. Not even close. The balanced, informed discussion about China layoffs/resignations/firings is that they are OLD news having begun when Wu was forced to resign and coming to a close now and somewhere around 30% of the Chinese division. Period, end of story. Elon already addressed China problems in the last CC. It's done, it's over, it's corrected and Tesla is already moving forward in China to finish undoing the damage. Elon also gave guidance when he felt the situation would be entirely rectified.

 

[Johan]

I've not see anyone on here be of the 'head-in-the-sand' type. At all. Not even a little.

Balanced, informed discussion is not measured by the amount of positive news items being equal to the amount of negative news items. Not even close. The balanced, informed discussion about China layoffs/resignations/firings is that they are OLD news having begun when Wu was forced to resign and coming to a close now and somewhere around 30% of the Chinese division. Period, end of story. Elon already addressed China problems in the last CC. It's done, it's over, it's corrected and Tesla is already moving forward in China to finish undoing the damage. Elon also gave guidance when he felt the situation would be entirely rectified.

So very right you are. Here are Elon's exact Words on this matter in the Conference Call for Q4 2014 (remeber this was February 11th so a month ago). Please note he was being quite blunt about firing People who were doing a bad job:

"And the biggest issue which we’re still fighting to address is this perception that is as difficult to charge your car in China. This is false it is not difficult to charge your car in China. Unfortunately, this sounds kind of brain dead but our sales team was telling people that it was difficult to charge in China. Even though this is not true like that is pretty silly. And so I put the guy who was in charge of the supercharger rollout in China, is doing an awesome job, an engineer basically, he’s not a sales person, in charge of China to make sure that charging is super easy and excellent. He’s not a marketing guys or sales guy, he is like, he is an engineer and he’s an operations guys and he’s going to make sure that people have, where customers are trying to have a fantastic experience and then just like in other countries those customers become our sales force and the product sales grow by word of mouth."

 

[AlMc]

I've not see anyone on here be of the 'head-in-the-sand' type. At all. Not even a little.

Balanced, informed discussion is not measured by the amount of positive news items being equal to the amount of negative news items. Not even close. The balanced, informed discussion about China layoffs/resignations/firings is that they are OLD news having begun when Wu was forced to resign and coming to a close now and somewhere around 30% of the Chinese division. Period, end of story. Elon already addressed China problems in the last CC. It's done, it's over, it's corrected and Tesla is already moving forward in China to finish undoing the damage. Elon also gave guidance when he felt the situation would be entirely rectified.

It may be done as far as many TMC members are concerned and in the long run TM China will be better off having made these moves. However, to many people who are bearish on TM/TSLA it is being rehashed in the media resulting in the short term decline of TSLA. So, short term (I measure that in weeks/ a couple months/time to the next ER?) this type of news while welcome (because China TM needed a change in management/culture) here, is perceived, rightly or wrongly, by the market as a negative.

 

[Papafox]

I've got the feeling that the FUD will continue to flourish until the first deliveries (and thereby the unveiling) of Model X in late summer.

Good perspective, Newb. The short term is a gamble. My short term gambles seldom exceed 5% of my TSLA holdings. I'm thinking Q1 ER provides a chance of a reasonable return, though, because:
* There's significant demand for TSLA shares below $200, as long as the stock is not dropping
* The lead-in to an ER typically provides a nice boost to the stock price, up until about 1-3 days before the ER
* The Q1 ER could easily be a beat, since the target for the quarter was set fairly low, Q4 brings in lots of delayed deliveries, and the dock strike has been settled, not to mention statements from James, Kallo, and Jonas.

 

[Johan]

It may be done as far as many TMC members are concerned and in the long run TM China will be better off having made these moves. However, to many people who are bearish on TM/TSLA it is being rehashed in the media resulting in the short term decline of TSLA. So, short term (I measure that in weeks/ a couple months/time to the next ER?) this type of news while welcome (because China TM needed a change in management/culture) here, is perceived, rightly or wrongly, by the market as a negative.

I agree if you put your bear goggles on of course you can see this as a negative omen. But on the other hand, bull goggles or not, I find it really does tell you most about an organization (just as about a person) when you see how they handle mistakes and correct themselves, rather than when everything is going great.

 

[JRP3]

Might get a little short term bump from this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wmakers-backing-to-sell-directly-to-customers

Tesla Motors Inc. drew closer to resuming electric-car sales in New Jersey as a state Senate committee approved a rule to allow direct customer purchases. The bill was passed unanimously by the Assembly in June and on Monday by the Senate Commerce Committee. It goes to the full Senate and then to Republican Governor Chris Christie, who has said Tesla can operate in New Jersey as long as the sales are lawful.

 

[jhm]

I think the Chinese sales restructuring illustrates just how important it is for Tesla to sell direct and not try to work through independent dealers at this point. Try to imagine the situation had Veronica Wu been the head of a major dealership. It would have been very hard to change the relationship or break the franchise contract
Moreover, Tesla would not have been able to fire counterproductive dealer employees. So basically a dealership failure of this scale would be almost impossible to rectify. The huge option that Tesla holds by owning their own sales and service channel is to restructure at will, to replace ineffective employees with the right people. Is difficult as this may be, it's a whole lot better than the mess a couple of bad dealers could create for Tesla.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Expecting the stock to see a huge bounce within next 1-2 weeks. All of the weakness has been caused by the media focusing entirely on illogical and overblown negative rumors and ignoring everything positive.

Very oversold, and bounced off lower bolinger band today. Many things will be announced in the next few weeks. On March 17th a Elon Musk is hosting a discussion/conference that has not been mentioned by anyone.

Very red on a green day because of a rehashing of nonsense about China. Volatility on a day when market volatility is low can be a gift if you take advantage of it.

 

[FredTMC]

Expecting the stock to see a huge bounce within next 1-2 weeks. All of the weakness has been caused by the media focusing entirely on illogical and overblown negative rumors and ignoring everything positive.

Very oversold, and bounced off lower bolinger band today. Many things will be announced in the next few weeks. On March 17th a Elon Musk is hosting a discussion/conference that has not been mentioned by anyone.

Very red on a green day because of a rehashing of nonsense about China. Volatility on a day when market volatility is low can be a gift if you take advantage of it.

thx. What conference is this on March 17th? Good...

TIA

nevermind. It's the GPU Tech Conference. Thanks for bringing this up.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I think Apple announces who the new member of its board of directors is tomorrow. Anyone think it might be Elon?

 

[pGo]

I think Apple announces who the new member of its board of directors is tomorrow. Anyone think it might be Elon?

Why do you think he might be on the board of Apple. I see no relation here.

 

[aznt1217]

thx. What conference is this on March 17th? Good...

TIA

nevermind. It's the GPU Tech Conference. Thanks for bringing this up.

Nvidia conference

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Apple takes CSR very seriously, and is very serious about investing in projects that make sense, and make the world a better place. Elon is a great match for the vacancy. Will Apple ask or select him? I don't expect it to happen, but it's possible.

Google lacks focus, and prioritizes and invests in pie in the sky ideas (moonshots) to change and improve the world.

Apple focuses on projects that can be accomplished in a realistic time frame, that can be produced in large quantities very quickly, have a reasonably high probability of being successful, and fix real world problems that seem impossible to fix. (Curing diseases, tackling climate change, and transitioning the world to an economy that isn't dependent on carbon emissions by 2050).

It would make a lot more sense for Apple to invest in Tesla than for Apple to buy Tesla.

 

[mulder1231]

On March 17th a Elon Musk is hosting a discussion/conference that has not been mentioned by anyone.

I mentioned it weeks ago.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 178

It's going to be a Q&A with Elon and he will probably give his thoughts on the future of autonomous driving. I expect it will mostly be visionary but people already know he is a visionary type of guy, so don't expect it will drive up the stock.

 

[TSLAopt]

Expecting the stock to see a huge bounce within next 1-2 weeks. All of the weakness has been caused by the media focusing entirely on illogical and overblown negative rumors and ignoring everything positive.

Very oversold, and bounced off lower bolinger band today. Many things will be announced in the next few weeks. On March 17th a Elon Musk is hosting a discussion/conference that has not been mentioned by anyone.

Very red on a green day because of a rehashing of nonsense about China. Volatility on a day when market volatility is low can be a gift if you take advantage of it.

When we all give up on the stock is when I think it will go back up...as long as there is a contingent that thinks the stock will rebound tomorrow tells me we still have farther down to go

just like when we're in a euphoric rise...once everyone gets on board that the stock will keep going up is when it seems to reverse course.

the good news is that I see less and less of these hopeful and optimistic posts on here trying to will the price back up with optimism on the company's future (TSLA stock and Tesla Motors the company are two very different things...they will both end up very successful but their paths to get there can be very different)

 

[32no]

I posted a chart a couple of days ago that showed just how manipulated the price action is right now. Here's the updated chart (it's a 1 hour timeframe for each bar):

Notice how the apple rumor was an easy "build it up and break it down", both analyst reports from Lovallo and Brian Johnson were exaggerated while positive reports from Baird, Dougherty, and Credit Suisse were ignored. The only real good news which was even partially priced in was that Tesla was staffing for their stationary storage unit, which was immediately followed by a false rumor of a delay at the Gigafactory, and reports of the Chinese layoffs. The crazy part is the layoffs happened at the beginning of the year, the news was first found out last Thursday, and it wasn't reported until today. I think its clear that this news event's timeline was manipulated to achieve the largest downward pressure on the stock. Moreover, Elon Musk specifically warned us that the sales team was telling people that it was hard to charge in China, so is it any surprise that there were layoffs? Also, the news that Tesla received consumer reports top pick 2nd year in a row and the confirmation that the Gigafactory was on track were not priced in at all.

All of this manipulation has now sent the stock into way oversold territory and BELOW where it was right after the earnings report. Ask yourself, has anything legitimate come up since then to warrant such a price movement? I think this is the last push by the Bears just as TSLA was at $200 to try to create a sell-off by pushing TSLA under $200 for a couple of days (using these manipulative tactics). I wonder if this is what was happening with bulls at $290?