When we all give up on the stock is when I think it will go back up...as long as there is a contingent that thinks the stock will rebound tomorrow tells me we still have farther down to go
I'm not sure many people think the stock will rebound anytime soon. I certainly don't, because I believe we are in an "uncertainty" period right now, similar to the period before the deliveries of the first Model S and even for some time after.
During this period, TSLA was stuck in the $30 range for months, with some random movement each way. First there was significant doubt that Tesla could even get to the delivery stage, and then there was doubt that they could mass produce and support Model S. That uncertainty was destroyed over the past two years.
Now the stock is sitting at around $190, a price that was unimaginable 2 years ago, but not going anywhere. There's uncertainty, justified or not. Will Model X finally ship after years of delay? Will China sales pick up after the recent completion of housecleaning and reorganization? Will the Gigafactory actually bring battery costs down?
Those of us who have faith that Tesla will make good on its plans (and that's what it is, I am under no illusion that it's anything but trust and hope over a situation where I have no control) might think the stock should go up. But there are plenty of market participants who don't have that faith and won't be satisfied until there's concrete progress.
The chances of a rebound are slim absent new progress.
The TMC sentiment indicator worked really well in the past, when novices were buying LEAPS for the first time or when fear was rampant after the fires many pointed out the extremes & mid term turning points soon followed, so its something I try to gauge & trade.
Some observations of mine but unfortunantly no conclusions as far as sentiment goes.
1. Long time contributers who were mostly bulls no longer post here, did they cash out or just staying silent I don't know.
2. The use of the label "FUD" is at a all time high, TSLA has had larger corrections but I don't remember FUD being thrown around this much, is the frustration higher now? Is it because some of these investors missed out on the big run & bought near the highs? Maybe some is fair but its used in every other post it seems.
Wheres 8 Ball when you need him?
People are frustrated, understandably, because some had huge and seemingly easy gains in 2013 and 2014.
Everything price wise grinding to a halt and sliding backwards, combined with a lot of misinformation in the media and deliberate attempts by people in the financial industry to attack the stock price, is frustrating in this context. It's not unexpected though. The truth is that many journalists are stupid, and many fund managers and analysts who lost money betting against TSLA in 2013 and 2014 are humiliated and out for revenge.
Basically, I'm saying that there's no big easy fast money in short term moves now. The next chance for that IMO is whenever (if it happens) Model X delivers financially and critically. If Tesla has a blowout quarter due to Model X boosting profit, ASP, Gross Margins, etc, and the press loves the car, it will be pandemonium on the short side. Figure out when this could happen and a short-term bet might pay off.
I understand people will want to play the short-term trading game even though I advise against it. Mostly I say be smart about it -- fear and uncertainty almost always beat nuance and understanding in the short term. It's only when the reality is so blunt and undeniable (like a superb quarterly report or shipping product that all the car mags love) that big and sustained gains happen.
